Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Humphrey Institute / MPR Poll: Franken and Coleman in Tight Race

Bookmark and Share

The final Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio poll of Minnesota's U.S. Senate race gives DFL nominee Al Franken a narrow 41 to 37 percent lead over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley received 17 percent.

From the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance:

The economic downturn, backlash against President Bush and the country’s general direction as well as heightened enthusiasm are boosting Mr. Franken, though he lags 15 points behind the Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama. Senator Coleman is boosted by his standing as a centrist and strong support among evangelicals and voters who regularly attend religious services.

The race remains quite fluid and may well shift in the final days of the campaign. In addition to the 5 percent who are undecided, 13 percent who currently support a candidate indicate that they may change their minds.

The MPR News/Humphrey Institute survey was conducted of 451 likely voters between October 24th and October 28th. The margin of error is 4.6 points.

Previous post: DFL Tries to Make History in U.S. House Races
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Iowa

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting