Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Humphrey Institute / MPR Poll: Obama Surging in Minnesota

Bookmark and Share

The latest Humphrey Institute / Minnesota Public Radio poll conducted October 24-28 of 451 likely voters in the Gopher State finds Barack Obama with a commanding 19-point lead, 56 to 37 percent over John McCain.

The 19-point advantage matches the largest lead for Obama ever measured by a non-partisan pollster in Minnesota (the Big 10 Battleground survey from a week ago also staked Obama to a 19-point advantage).

McCain has not led in any public poll in Minnesota since SurveyUSA’s poll ending October 1st, when he led by one point. Overall, Obama has led McCain in 36 of 38 polls since mid-March, including one tie.

From the Humphrey Institute report:

Obama’s advantage and wider lead results from building a remarkably broad coalition, capitalizing on the backlash against President George W. Bush and the country’s economic downturn, and eroding core components of Senator McCain’s base of support.

The 2008 election has been reduced to one dimension – the economy and jobs. In 2004, 18 percent of voters singled out the economy as the single most important national problem; today more than 6 out of 10 voters do. As the economy has come to predominate, the national security issues that propelled President Bush’s campaign in 2004 have plummeted in their importance to voters.

The dramatic change in the issues of greatest importance to voters has transformed the debate during the presidential campaign. Among voters singling out the economy, Obama has a 25 point advantage (59 to 34) compared to a 74 point advantage for Bush in 2004. Of greater importance to Senator McCain, he has actually expanded the Republican lead among voters singling out terrorism to 82 points (Bush built a 74 point gap in 2004). In other words, if the 2008 campaign focused on national security and terrorism, the McCain campaign would be in a stronger position.

The malaise about the economy has combined with a deep disaffection with Bush. Disapproval of the President’s job performance has increased by nearly 50 percent since the 2004 elections while his approval has plummeted by an equal proportion. Bush’s disapproval puts a significant drag on the McCain campaign, with three quarters of the critics supporting Obama.

More than 8 out of 10 voters indicate that the country is heading off on the wrong track. Among these voters, nearly two thirds will be voting for Obama.

The confluence of the economic downturn, Bush’s unpopularity, and concern that the country is off on the wrong track has tarnished the Republican Party’s reputation. Democrats hold a consistent double-digit advantage among Minnesotan voters.

Previous post: Franken Losing His Grip on Obama's Coattails
Next post: DFL Tries to Make History in U.S. House Races

1 Comment


  • Subject Line : Beat Long Poll Lines with Absentee Ballots from StateDemocracy.org


    Many state and local election officials are encouraging voters to use Absentee Ballots to avoid the long lines and delays expected at the polls on November 4th due to the record-breaking surge in newly registered voters.

    Voters in most states still have time to obtain an Absentee Ballot by simply downloading an official application form available through www.StateDemocracy.org, a completely FREE public service from the nonprofit StateDemocracy Foundation.


    Read More: http://us-2008-election.blogspot.com/2008/10/beat-long-poll-lines-with-absentee.html


  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting