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“Landslide� Indicators

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Dozens of polls are now released each day on the presidential race, with the media focus largely being on whether or not John McCain is making any gains in the battleground states he needs to hold (namely, holding Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia) and/or pick up (Pennsylvania). Campaigns on both sides can point to polls that indicate whether McCain is in dire straits or is still competitive in most of those states (Pennsylvania so far being the exception).

But there is another group of polls that have been released in recent days that tell just as interesting a tale as these traditional battleground states: red states that show Barack Obama to be extremely competitive. The bad news for McCain is that even though he will likely win these states, the fact they could very well be decided by single digits means many of the battleground states probably will not. Some recent eyebrow-raising surveys include (all polls of likely voters):

Georgia: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (Insider Advantage, October 23)
Montana: Obama 44%, McCain 40%, Paul 4% (Montana State University, October 16-20)
South Dakota: McCain 48%, Obama 41% (KELO-TV, October 13-15)

These surveys, when taken together with polls of contests further down the ballot, reflect not so much a collapse of John McCain’s candidacy, but that of the Republican brand. Several U.S. House races are also showing Democrats in position to strongly content for seats in deep red districts:

Idaho-01: Minnick (D) 51%, Sali (R) 45% (SurveyUSA, October 18-20)
Wyoming At-large: Lummis (R) 50%, Trauner (D) 46%, Herbert (L) 4% (SurveyUSA, October 18-19)
Alaska At-large: Berkowitz (D) 51%, Young (R) 43% (Ivan Moore, October 17-19)

Beyond the ‘usual suspects’ U.S. Senate seats the Democrats are poised to pick up (e.g. New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire) some other Senate contests with now seemingly vulernable Republican incumbents have inspired genuine concern among the GOP faithful that the Democrats could reach 60 seats (e.g. Mitch McConnell-KY, Saxby Chambliss-GA, Elizabeth Dole-NC).

It is quite likely that when the early returns tell us the margin of victory in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, we will know the extent of the Democrat’s (and Obama’s) success nationwide a week from Tuesday.

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1 Comment


  • We have had consistently +20% swing to Obama since late July.

    Whilst not as detailed as your article, it has had over 500,000 respondents.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucZjVj-n0Gs

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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