Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


“Landslide� Indicators

Bookmark and Share

Dozens of polls are now released each day on the presidential race, with the media focus largely being on whether or not John McCain is making any gains in the battleground states he needs to hold (namely, holding Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia) and/or pick up (Pennsylvania). Campaigns on both sides can point to polls that indicate whether McCain is in dire straits or is still competitive in most of those states (Pennsylvania so far being the exception).

But there is another group of polls that have been released in recent days that tell just as interesting a tale as these traditional battleground states: red states that show Barack Obama to be extremely competitive. The bad news for McCain is that even though he will likely win these states, the fact they could very well be decided by single digits means many of the battleground states probably will not. Some recent eyebrow-raising surveys include (all polls of likely voters):

Georgia: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (Insider Advantage, October 23)
Montana: Obama 44%, McCain 40%, Paul 4% (Montana State University, October 16-20)
South Dakota: McCain 48%, Obama 41% (KELO-TV, October 13-15)

These surveys, when taken together with polls of contests further down the ballot, reflect not so much a collapse of John McCain’s candidacy, but that of the Republican brand. Several U.S. House races are also showing Democrats in position to strongly content for seats in deep red districts:

Idaho-01: Minnick (D) 51%, Sali (R) 45% (SurveyUSA, October 18-20)
Wyoming At-large: Lummis (R) 50%, Trauner (D) 46%, Herbert (L) 4% (SurveyUSA, October 18-19)
Alaska At-large: Berkowitz (D) 51%, Young (R) 43% (Ivan Moore, October 17-19)

Beyond the ‘usual suspects’ U.S. Senate seats the Democrats are poised to pick up (e.g. New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire) some other Senate contests with now seemingly vulernable Republican incumbents have inspired genuine concern among the GOP faithful that the Democrats could reach 60 seats (e.g. Mitch McConnell-KY, Saxby Chambliss-GA, Elizabeth Dole-NC).

It is quite likely that when the early returns tell us the margin of victory in states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky, we will know the extent of the Democrat’s (and Obama’s) success nationwide a week from Tuesday.

Previous post: Michele Bachmann Still Courting the National Media
Next post: Humphrey Institute / MPR Poll: Bachmann Fighting for Political Life in MN-06

1 Comment


  • We have had consistently +20% swing to Obama since late July.

    Whilst not as detailed as your article, it has had over 500,000 respondents.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucZjVj-n0Gs

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting