Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Third CD Race in Minnesota Stil Deadlocked

Bookmark and Share

One of the most high profile and competitive U.S. House races in the country appears to be going down to the wire – according to a new SurveyUSA poll of 643 likely voters in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.

The new poll, conducted October 26-27, finds Republican Erik Paulsen with a statistically insignificant 45 to 44 percent lead over DFL-er Ashwin Madia. David Dillon of the Independence Party registers at 9 percent.

SurveyUSA has been in the field three times in the Third District, and has shown little movement in the race. In its poll conducted three weeks ago, Madia led Paulsen 46 to 43 percent, with Dillon at 8 percent. It late August, Paulsen had a 44 to 41 percent lead over Madia (Dillon had not yet won the IP primary and was not listed in the survey question).

Dillon has attracted more Democrats than Republicans in both the early October (7 percent to 5 percent) and late October (10 percent to 4 percent) surveys. This helps to explain why Madia has not pulled ahead in a district that SurveyUSA finds has slightly more self-identified Democrats (34 percent) than Republicans (32 percent) and Madia leading Paulsen among independents, 43 to 39 percent. SurveyUSA also gave Democrats a two-point advantage (35 to 33 percent) in party identification earlier this month. Independents comprise approximately 30 percent of likely voters in the district.

While many experts are projecting support to peel away from Dillon (and Dean Barkley in the U.S. Senate race) at the last minute, benefiting the DFL candidates in each race, Smart Politics projects the core 10 percent supporting Dillon (and 15+ percent backing Barkley) are largely so frustrated with both major parties, and the negative campaigning its nominees have run in particular, that their support will hold steady. As a result, it is unlikely any candidate will eclipse 50 percent.

Previous post: Election Profile: Minnesota U.S. Senate
Next post: Franken Losing His Grip on Obama's Coattails

4 Comments


  • Dillon did not get 9 percent in this poll, becuase the three options in the poll were: Madia, Paulson and Other.

  • Yes, the SurveyUSA question wording, you are correct, is listed as 'other' in this poll, as opposed to listing David Dillon's name, as it did in their poll earlier this month. Dillon is the only other candidate on the ballot, and it seems no matter how the question has been phrased, the likely voter support for a candidate other than Madia and Paulsen has been about the same:

    a) "Or some other candidate," (9 percent) -- late October
    b) "Or Independence Party candidate David Dillon?" (8 percent) -- early October
    c) (no mention of a third choice) (10 percent) -- late August

    SurveyUSA's write-up, however, suggests the 9 percent 'other' in this poll is actually support for Dillon - and I have sometimes noticed inconsistencies with their question wording and write-ups in the past.

    Thank you for emphasizing this point, however. It will be interesting to see how much support Dillon receives on Election Day.

  • From what I understand the poll showed Paulsen leading among young voters...I find this very hard to believe. I don't put much credence in polls anyway....I prefer to study the candidates closely over a long time and it is apparent to me that Madia is the best candidate in this race. He's the only one who will actually be able to "deliver" in this race, with Obama as our next President and a solid Democratic House and Senate...maybe we can finally get some decent legislation dealing with Health Care, proper funding for Education, and a true long term Energy plan.

  • I awas put in charge of contacting SurveyUSA directly regarding teh questionaire. They were very very embarrassed and yanked the poll. They used the same questionaire they used for Roll Call many months a go. They are doing a poll for free for KSTP that should be done tonight. Tom Hauser was about as pleased as I was. Drives me nuts when they do not do homework.

    Peter Tharaldson

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

    Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

    Political Crumbs

    Six for Thirteen

    Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting