Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Third CD Race in Minnesota Stil Deadlocked

Bookmark and Share

One of the most high profile and competitive U.S. House races in the country appears to be going down to the wire – according to a new SurveyUSA poll of 643 likely voters in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.

The new poll, conducted October 26-27, finds Republican Erik Paulsen with a statistically insignificant 45 to 44 percent lead over DFL-er Ashwin Madia. David Dillon of the Independence Party registers at 9 percent.

SurveyUSA has been in the field three times in the Third District, and has shown little movement in the race. In its poll conducted three weeks ago, Madia led Paulsen 46 to 43 percent, with Dillon at 8 percent. It late August, Paulsen had a 44 to 41 percent lead over Madia (Dillon had not yet won the IP primary and was not listed in the survey question).

Dillon has attracted more Democrats than Republicans in both the early October (7 percent to 5 percent) and late October (10 percent to 4 percent) surveys. This helps to explain why Madia has not pulled ahead in a district that SurveyUSA finds has slightly more self-identified Democrats (34 percent) than Republicans (32 percent) and Madia leading Paulsen among independents, 43 to 39 percent. SurveyUSA also gave Democrats a two-point advantage (35 to 33 percent) in party identification earlier this month. Independents comprise approximately 30 percent of likely voters in the district.

While many experts are projecting support to peel away from Dillon (and Dean Barkley in the U.S. Senate race) at the last minute, benefiting the DFL candidates in each race, Smart Politics projects the core 10 percent supporting Dillon (and 15+ percent backing Barkley) are largely so frustrated with both major parties, and the negative campaigning its nominees have run in particular, that their support will hold steady. As a result, it is unlikely any candidate will eclipse 50 percent.

Previous post: Election Profile: Minnesota U.S. Senate
Next post: Franken Losing His Grip on Obama's Coattails

4 Comments


  • Dillon did not get 9 percent in this poll, becuase the three options in the poll were: Madia, Paulson and Other.

  • Yes, the SurveyUSA question wording, you are correct, is listed as 'other' in this poll, as opposed to listing David Dillon's name, as it did in their poll earlier this month. Dillon is the only other candidate on the ballot, and it seems no matter how the question has been phrased, the likely voter support for a candidate other than Madia and Paulsen has been about the same:

    a) "Or some other candidate," (9 percent) -- late October
    b) "Or Independence Party candidate David Dillon?" (8 percent) -- early October
    c) (no mention of a third choice) (10 percent) -- late August

    SurveyUSA's write-up, however, suggests the 9 percent 'other' in this poll is actually support for Dillon - and I have sometimes noticed inconsistencies with their question wording and write-ups in the past.

    Thank you for emphasizing this point, however. It will be interesting to see how much support Dillon receives on Election Day.

  • From what I understand the poll showed Paulsen leading among young voters...I find this very hard to believe. I don't put much credence in polls anyway....I prefer to study the candidates closely over a long time and it is apparent to me that Madia is the best candidate in this race. He's the only one who will actually be able to "deliver" in this race, with Obama as our next President and a solid Democratic House and Senate...maybe we can finally get some decent legislation dealing with Health Care, proper funding for Education, and a true long term Energy plan.

  • I awas put in charge of contacting SurveyUSA directly regarding teh questionaire. They were very very embarrassed and yanked the poll. They used the same questionaire they used for Roll Call many months a go. They are doing a poll for free for KSTP that should be done tonight. Tom Hauser was about as pleased as I was. Drives me nuts when they do not do homework.

    Peter Tharaldson

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

    A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

    Political Crumbs

    Final Four Has Presidential Approval

    By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


    Three for the Road

    A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting