November 2008
By Eric Ostermeier on November 30, 2008
As we approach a month since Election Day, many DFLers continue to lament that if Norm Coleman should hold onto his US Senate seat after the statewide recount, it is not because Coleman won the race, but because the DFL lost it – specifically, by nominating a ‘weak’ and controversial...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 28, 2008
On Monday morning Smart Politics will live blog a conference on redistricting reform in Minnesota at the Humphrey Institute. Toward More Open Government: A Conference on Reforming the Redistricting Process Monday, December 1, 2008 8:30am - 12:00pm Humphrey Forum Hubert H. Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs From the Institute's Center...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 26, 2008
Earlier this month Smart Politics examined how a victory by Norm Coleman would mark the first time since 1940 that a Republican has been elected Senator from the Gopher State in a presidential election year in which a Democrat was sent to the White House. That study examined the Coleman...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 25, 2008
While the number of challenged ballots has been increasing in the Minnesota U.S. recount during the past week, the rise has not been uniform across the state’s partisan geographic divide. Smart Politics studied the change in challenged ballots in counties that had completed their recounts between the end of Thursday,...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 24, 2008
The October 2008 unemployment numbers released late last week by Dan McElroy, commissioner of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, reveals the Gopher State is enduring its worst jobless trend in more than two decades. October’s 6.0 percent seasonally adjusted unemployment rate marks the second time out of...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 22, 2008
The Center for the Study of Politics and Governance released a report this week which puts into perspective what seemed like large changes in the vote count for Al Franken between the end of Election Day to just before the recount. From the CSPG report: A study of the change...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 21, 2008
The U.S. Senate ballot recount has been completed in 36 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, according to the Secretary of State’s website as of 8:00 pm Thursday evening. A Smart Politics study of those counties in which 100% of the ballots have been recounted finds an astonishingly similar rate of challenged...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 20, 2008
If Norm Coleman is able to hold onto his narrow lead against Al Franken in the 2008 U.S. Senate recount that began on Wednesday, he would accomplish a feat that has not been seen in Minnesota since before World War II: no Republican since 1940 has been elected Senator from...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 19, 2008
Smart Politics' Eric Ostermeier was interviewed by the always-affable Jason DeRusha for his "Good Question" segment on WCCO-TV Tuesday evening. The "Good Question" at issue was, "Why Can't the President Use E-Mail" - in light of Barack Obama's recent announcement that he would be giving up his Blackberry when he...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 18, 2008
On Monday, Smart Politics examined the margin of victory and loss in each county between the DFL candidates in the 2006 gubernatorial and 2008 U.S. Senate races, and found Al Franken most severely underperformed in the Northern counties of the Gopher State vis-à-vis Mike Hatch. Today, in the second part...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 17, 2008
On the surface, there are several similarities between the 2008 U.S. Senate race and the 2006 gubernatorial race in Minnesota. · Both races featured 1-term Republican incumbents facing reelection in Democratic wave election years and, pending a change of fate in the U.S. Senate recount, Republicans emerged victorious in each...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 15, 2008
For the first time in modern Hawkeye State political history, Iowa Democrats have made gains in the State House of Representatives in four consecutive elections. Smart Politics examined Iowa election returns for more than fifty years dating back to the mid-1950s, and neither the Democratic nor Republican parties had ever...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 14, 2008
With its takeover of the State Assembly last week, Democrats now control both legislative chambers and the governor’s office in the Badger State for the first time since the 1984 election. Wisconsin Democrats were able to accomplish in 2008 what Republicans have done only one time since the 1968 election...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 13, 2008
Should Republican Norm Coleman prevail in the U.S. Senate recount against DFLer Al Franken over the coming weeks, his reelection will be noteworthy in several respects. First, at 42.0 percent, Coleman will have been elected by the lowest percentage in Minnesota in nearly 80 years and the second lowest in...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 12, 2008
After flirting with national office in 2008 – as a purported finalist on John McCain’s short list of Vice-Presidential nominees – Tim Pawlenty has the luxury of governing a state in which gubernatorial elections are conducted in presidential off-year cycles. Governor Pawlenty has stated that he is not going...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 11, 2008
Barack Obama’s near landslide victory over John McCain last week was impressive on a number of dimensions. Most obviously, Obama picked up 9 states that went Republican in the 2004 election: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Less evident, but equally impressive, is that...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 10, 2008
As the headline of Barack Obama’s historic victory begins to fade and political reporters and analysts need to turn their attention elsewhere, it is likely the recount in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race will satisfy their cravings and subsequently garner even more national attention. To date, due to its understandably Obama-centric...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 8, 2008
In Minnesota’s House District 61B election on Tuesday, Green Party candidate Farheen Hakeem received 30.3 percent of the vote – the highest mark ever reached by the Green Party in a House contest. The Green Party has run 29 candidates for the House of Representatives in special and general...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 7, 2008
Third party candidates in the Gopher State made a slight comeback in 2008, and had some impact on Minnesota legislative races on Tuesday. Two races were decidedly impacted by third party candidacies. In the open DFL House District 51A, Republican Tim Sanders defeated DFL candidate Shawn Hamilton by a 47.8...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 6, 2008
Although the number of candidates the Independence Party of Minnesota has been able to field in state legislative elections has fallen sharply during the past few election cycles, the Party enjoyed some personal bests in the 2008 elections. At the top of the ticket, in the U.S. Senate race, the...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 5, 2008
Despite failing to net five seats and reach a 90-seat supermajority in the House of Representatives, the DFL is actually now in a much stronger position heading into 2010 than they were heading into Tuesday’s election. Perhaps more important than netting two additional seats, the DFL deepened their support in...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 5, 2008
Barack Obama’s sweep through most of the Midwest on Tuesday night was perhaps most notable for his victory in Indiana. But there were other historical oddities with Obama’s victory that occurred in the region, one of which was that, for the first time since 1936, a Democratic presidential nominee had...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 5, 2008
As projected at Smart Politics , the Republican Party successfully prevented the DFL from reaching a supermajority of 90 seats in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Smart Politics projected a net gain of 3 seats for a total of 88 for the DFL; unofficial returns from the Secretary of State’s...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 5, 2008
As projected at Smart Politics on Monday, the Democratic Party has taken back control of the Wisconsin Assembly, for the first time since 1992. Democrats appear to have picked up five seats (with 1st term Democrat Kim Hixon’s defense of his 43rd District still not called): Districts 2, 42, 57,...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
9:20 p.m. There have not been any shockers on Election Night so far, but there have been a few surprises on the presidential race: 1. Ohio being called so quickly for Barack Obama (about 90 minutes after polls closed) and North Dakota being called so quickly for John McCain (the...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
To track updated state and federal election results for the Upper Midwest, visit these links: Iowa: Secretary of State Minnesota: Secretary of State South Dakota: Secretary of State Wisconsin: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
Smart Politics’ final set in its series of national and Upper Midwestern federal and state electoral projections is the balance of power in the U.S. House. Smart Politics Projections: The U.S. House Even before the financial crisis hit the U.S. two months ago, Democrats were poised to pick-up several...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The thirteenth projections in the series are State House races in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota: State House. Balance of power: DFL (85 to 49)...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency. Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008
Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The eleventh projections in the series are U.S. Senate races nationwide. Smart Politics Projections: U.S. Senate Races Democratic Victories (+7) Alaska (pick-up) Arkansas Colorado (pick-up)...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The tenth projections in the series are federal races in the State of Minnesota. Minnesota: President. Barack Obama has trailed John McCain only once in 40 non-partisan...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The ninth projections in the series are State House races in the State of South Dakota. South Dakota: State House. Balance of power: Republicans (50 to 20)...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The eighth projections in the series are State Senate races in the State of South Dakota. South Dakota: State Senate. Balance of power: Republicans (20 to 15) 2006 Results:...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The seventh projections in the series are State Assembly races in the State of Wisconsin. Wisconsin: State Assembly. Balance of power: Republicans (51 to 47; 1 independent) 2006 Results:...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The sixth projections in the series are State Senate races in the State of Wisconsin. Wisconsin: State Senate. Balance of power: Democrats (17 to 14; 2 vacancies) 2006 Results:...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The fifth projections in the series are State House races in the State of Iowa. Iowa: State House. Balance of power: Democrats (53 to 47) 2006 Results: Democrats +5...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The fourth projections in the series are State Senate races in the State of Iowa. Iowa: State Senate. Balance of power: Democrats (30 to 20) 2006 Results: Democrats, net...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 3, 2008
On the eve of Election Day, Smart Politics would like to thank its growing audience for making this blog your home for non-partisan analysis of Upper Midwestern politics. Throughout this campaign season our readership has mushroomed, and our coverage of Upper Midwestern politics will only intensify after November 4th. In...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 2, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The third projections in the series are federal races in the State of Wisconsin. Wisconsin: President. John McCain has not led in a non-partisan public poll in Wisconsin since...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 2, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The second projections in the series are federal races in the State of South Dakota. South Dakota: President. Democrats have carried South Dakota just three times (in 1932, 1936,...
By Eric Ostermeier on November 2, 2008
Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The first projections in the series are federal races in the State of Iowa. Iowa: President. Barack Obama has never trailed John McCain in three-dozen non-partisan polls taken of...
