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Election Night Observations

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9:20 p.m. There have not been any shockers on Election Night so far, but there have been a few surprises on the presidential race:

1. Ohio being called so quickly for Barack Obama (about 90 minutes after polls closed) and North Dakota being called so quickly for John McCain (the minute polls closed).
2. Virginia remaining so tight of a race, when Obama may be performing above expectations in North Carolina and Indiana.

10:30 p.m. In a bit of a surprise, in South Dakota it appears Initiated Measure 11 is going to fail - an initiative which would have outlawed abortion with exceptions for reported rape, incest, and health / life of the mother.

11:45 p.m. Minnesota voters have not disappointed tonight -- in the face of a Democratic landslide at the top of the ticket, the Gopher State may again have a 'lone man standing' on the GOP side: in 2006 it was Tim Pawlenty, and in 2008 it may be Norm Coleman. However, Coleman's lead is very tenuous, given the number (and location) of precincts that have yet to report.

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2 Comments


  • Stop them before they poll again! The Humphrey Institute record on election polls is horrible. The primary was a debacle and now they missed the presidential race by double and appear to be wrong on Bachman and Coleman. Stop Stop the madness.

  • FYI: this blog, which is a Humphrey Institute blog, correctly projected the Coleman victory, Paulsen's victory in the 3rd CD, and the DFL failing to reach 90 seats in the State House. Smart Politics correctly projected the Bachmann race in the 6th CD would be the closest U.S. House race in the state, although I was on the wrong end of that one.

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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