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Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in South Dakota

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Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The second projections in the series are federal races in the State of South Dakota.

South Dakota: President.
Democrats have carried South Dakota just three times (in 1932, 1936, 1964) plus 1896 when William Jennings Bryan ran on the Populist ticket. Unlike its sister state to the north, South Dakota is not a toss up state, even with two strong Democratic statewide candidates on the ballot in 2008. Smart Politics Projection: Republican Hold (from 2004).

South Dakota: U.S. Senate.
Senator Tim Johnson is one of the nation’s most popular Senators, with Mount Rushmore State residents consistently giving him favorability ratings in 60s. That will translate into Johnson’s first double-digit victory since his five consecutive double-digit victories as South Dakota’s At-large Representative from 1986-1994. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

South Dakota: U.S. House-At large.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is one of three Blue Dog Democrats in the Upper Midwest who will coast to double-digit victories in 2008, winning the At-large seat for the Democrats for the 11th time out of 15 elections since 1982. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

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Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Wisconsin

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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