Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Wisconsin

Bookmark and Share

Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The third projections in the series are federal races in the State of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: President.
John McCain has not led in a non-partisan public poll in Wisconsin since May. Wisconsinites have been breaking big for Obama during the past month, and so for just the third time since 1940, and for only the fifth time since statehood, a Democratic presidential nominee has a chance to win the Badger State by a double-digit margin. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold (from 2004).

Wisconsin: U.S. House-01.
Paul Ryan, who has recently criticized the McCain campaign, is a popular Republican figure in the 1st District who receives a significant crossover vote from Democrats. Ryan has not faced a competitive re-election campaign to date, and will return to D.C. for a sixth term. Smart Politics Projection: Republican Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-02.
Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District is one of the most heavily Democratic in the state, which will help propel Tammy Baldwin to a large double-digit victory. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-03.
Elections in the 3rd Congressional District have been decided by less than 10 points just one time since 1982. That historical trend will not change in 2008 for 6-term Democratic incumbent Ron Kind. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-04.
Even if Democrat Gwen Moore was not the only major party candidate on the ballot, Republican candidates have only come within single-digits of beating a Democrat in the 4th District just one time since 1948. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-05.
Unchallenged by a major party candidate, stalwart conservative Jim Sensenbrenner will have yet another restful election night en route to his 16th term in Congress. Smart Politics Projection: Republican Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-06.
All nine counties that are entirely contained within the 6th Congressional voted for George W. Bush in 2004 – and six of them by double-digit margins. Republican Tom Petri’s moderate Republican credentials in this conservative stronghold of the state will serve him well in today’s Democratic-friendly political environment. Smart Politics Projection: Republican Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-07.
Obey is the elder statesman of Wisconsin politics and holds very prominent committee assignments in the U.S. House, which (along with 40 years building his name recognition) always makes him an attractive candidate to retain his seat – despite the fact that his district is not overwhelmingly Democratic. As a result, Obey will land another very large double-digit victory in 2008. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

Wisconsin: U.S. House-08.
Steven Kagen’s seat is considered by D.C. pundits to be in the Top 10 to 15 most vulernable Democratic House seats this year. Though the 8th District is the easy favorite to be the most closely decided U.S. House contest in the Badger State, the 2008 edition of Gard vs. Kagen will not be as competitive as 2006. Smart Politics Projection: Democratic Hold.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in South Dakota
Next post: Smart Politics ‘Post-Election Preview’

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting