Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

Bookmark and Share

Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The thirteenth projections in the series are State House races in the State of Minnesota.

Minnesota: State House.
Balance of power: DFL (85 to 49)
2006 Results: DFL +19
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 134
Open seats: Republicans = 11; DFL = 6
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 38; DFL = 79

Outlook: The DFL and GOP each had one incumbent defeated in September's primary elections. Republicans will have no incumbent running in 22 percent of their House districts (11 of 49), compared to just 7 percent for the DFL (6 of 85). However, the DFL will have to defend 27 districts decided by 10 points or less, compared to 17 for the Republicans - which gives the GOP more low-hanging fruit. The DFL will seek pickups in districts such as 16A, 17A, 18B, 22B, 24B, 32B, 38B, 41B, 43A, 52B, and 53B. The Republicans will have a number of opportunities to be competitive, including Districts 12B, 17B, 25B, 29B, 30B, 31B, 37A, 38A, 47A, 51A, 53A, 56A, and 56B.

Smart Politics Projection: DFL +3. DFL retains control of House.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: U.S. House Races

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting