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Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota House (2008)

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Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The ninth projections in the series are State House races in the State of South Dakota.

South Dakota: State House.
Balance of power: Republicans (50 to 20)
2006 Results: Democrats +1
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 70
Open seats: Republicans = 20; Democrats = 11
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 30; Democrats = 9

Outlook: South Dakota's House is divided into 33 two-member districts and 4 single-member districts. Major parties can run up to two candidates in each dual-member district. Despite only gaining one seat in the Democratic-friendly national political environment of 2006, House Democratic candidates will have more opportunities to cut into the GOP's 30-seat advantage this year. Democrats have opportunities for pick-ups in Districts 3, 12, 18, 19, 20, 21, 26B, 31, 32, and 33. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to help negate any losses by picking up seats in Districts 22 and 25. Both Republicans and Democrats have opportunities for pick-ups in Districts 8, 14, and 27. As with the State Senate races, Democrats will be assisted at the margins with Senator Tim Johnson and At-large Representative Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin on the ballot, as well as Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

Projection: Democrats +5. Republicans retain control of House.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota Senate (2008)
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Minnesota

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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