Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota House (2008)

Bookmark and Share

Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The ninth projections in the series are State House races in the State of South Dakota.

South Dakota: State House.
Balance of power: Republicans (50 to 20)
2006 Results: Democrats +1
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 70
Open seats: Republicans = 20; Democrats = 11
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 30; Democrats = 9

Outlook: South Dakota's House is divided into 33 two-member districts and 4 single-member districts. Major parties can run up to two candidates in each dual-member district. Despite only gaining one seat in the Democratic-friendly national political environment of 2006, House Democratic candidates will have more opportunities to cut into the GOP's 30-seat advantage this year. Democrats have opportunities for pick-ups in Districts 3, 12, 18, 19, 20, 21, 26B, 31, 32, and 33. Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping to help negate any losses by picking up seats in Districts 22 and 25. Both Republicans and Democrats have opportunities for pick-ups in Districts 8, 14, and 27. As with the State Senate races, Democrats will be assisted at the margins with Senator Tim Johnson and At-large Representative Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin on the ballot, as well as Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.

Projection: Democrats +5. Republicans retain control of House.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota Senate (2008)
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Federal Races in Minnesota

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting