Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency

By Eric Ostermeier on November 4, 2008

Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency.

Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana will likely fall just short of the mark. Despite what the polls might say, to turn states blue in 2008 that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by 13 (North Carolina) to 27 points (North Dakota), would likely mean Obama would need to capture close to 55 percent of the popular vote nationwide. That is an unlikely event, even in the current political environment.

However, Obama’s presence on the ballot in these and other ‘new battleground states,’ may very well help the Democrats win key races, such as the Governorship and U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

The states most likely to flip from these projections are Florida to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

Barack Obama = 338
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida – 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

John McCain = 200
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

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