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Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency

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Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency.

Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana will likely fall just short of the mark. Despite what the polls might say, to turn states blue in 2008 that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by 13 (North Carolina) to 27 points (North Dakota), would likely mean Obama would need to capture close to 55 percent of the popular vote nationwide. That is an unlikely event, even in the current political environment.

However, Obama’s presence on the ballot in these and other ‘new battleground states,’ may very well help the Democrats win key races, such as the Governorship and U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

The states most likely to flip from these projections are Florida to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

Barack Obama = 338
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida – 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

John McCain = 200
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: U.S. Senate Races
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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