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Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency

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Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency.

Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana will likely fall just short of the mark. Despite what the polls might say, to turn states blue in 2008 that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by 13 (North Carolina) to 27 points (North Dakota), would likely mean Obama would need to capture close to 55 percent of the popular vote nationwide. That is an unlikely event, even in the current political environment.

However, Obama’s presence on the ballot in these and other ‘new battleground states,’ may very well help the Democrats win key races, such as the Governorship and U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

The states most likely to flip from these projections are Florida to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

Barack Obama = 338
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida – 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

John McCain = 200
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: U.S. Senate Races
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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