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Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency

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Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency.

Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana will likely fall just short of the mark. Despite what the polls might say, to turn states blue in 2008 that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by 13 (North Carolina) to 27 points (North Dakota), would likely mean Obama would need to capture close to 55 percent of the popular vote nationwide. That is an unlikely event, even in the current political environment.

However, Obama’s presence on the ballot in these and other ‘new battleground states,’ may very well help the Democrats win key races, such as the Governorship and U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

The states most likely to flip from these projections are Florida to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

Barack Obama = 338
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida – 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

John McCain = 200
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: U.S. Senate Races
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

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Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


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