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Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency

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Through the morning of November 4th, Smart Politics is running a series of electoral projections for national and Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The twelfth set of projections in the series is for the Presidency.

Smart Politics Projections: The Presidency
Barack Obama’s attempt to capture Republican states like North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, and Indiana will likely fall just short of the mark. Despite what the polls might say, to turn states blue in 2008 that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 by 13 (North Carolina) to 27 points (North Dakota), would likely mean Obama would need to capture close to 55 percent of the popular vote nationwide. That is an unlikely event, even in the current political environment.

However, Obama’s presence on the ballot in these and other ‘new battleground states,’ may very well help the Democrats win key races, such as the Governorship and U.S. Senate race in North Carolina.

The states most likely to flip from these projections are Florida to McCain and Missouri to Obama.

Barack Obama = 338
California - 55
Colorado - 9
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District Of Columbia - 3
Florida – 27
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Ohio - 20
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Virginia - 13
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

John McCain = 200
Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: U.S. Senate Races
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House (2008)

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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