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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate (2008)

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Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The sixth projections in the series are State Senate races in the State of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: State Senate.
Balance of power: Democrats (17 to 14; 2 vacancies)
2006 Results: Democrats +4
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 16 (Republican = 8; Democrat = 8)
Open seats: Republicans = 1; Democrats = 1
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 7; Democrats = 7
Districts without major party opposition: Republicans = 3; Democrats = 4

Outlook: With only 16 Senate races state wide, and only 9 with both Democrats and Republicans on the ballot, there are few opportunities for pick-ups on either side of the aisle. Democrats will be defending 3 seats that were narrowly carried in 2004 (Districts 12, 22, and 30), compared to just 1 seat for the Republicans (District 32). The GOP is looking to be especially competitive in the 12th District, which is also an open seat. The Democrats hope for close battles in Republican-held Districts 10 and 32. This is the only legislative body in the Upper Midwest where there is a chance for no party turnover in any seat.

Projection: Democrats +1. Democrats retain control of Senate.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: Iowa State House (2008)
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly (2008)

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