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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate (2008)

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Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The sixth projections in the series are State Senate races in the State of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: State Senate.
Balance of power: Democrats (17 to 14; 2 vacancies)
2006 Results: Democrats +4
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 16 (Republican = 8; Democrat = 8)
Open seats: Republicans = 1; Democrats = 1
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 7; Democrats = 7
Districts without major party opposition: Republicans = 3; Democrats = 4

Outlook: With only 16 Senate races state wide, and only 9 with both Democrats and Republicans on the ballot, there are few opportunities for pick-ups on either side of the aisle. Democrats will be defending 3 seats that were narrowly carried in 2004 (Districts 12, 22, and 30), compared to just 1 seat for the Republicans (District 32). The GOP is looking to be especially competitive in the 12th District, which is also an open seat. The Democrats hope for close battles in Republican-held Districts 10 and 32. This is the only legislative body in the Upper Midwest where there is a chance for no party turnover in any seat.

Projection: Democrats +1. Democrats retain control of Senate.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: Iowa State House (2008)
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly (2008)

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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