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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly (2008)

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Through November 3rd, Smart Politics will be running a series of electoral projections for Upper Midwestern federal and state governmental contests. The seventh projections in the series are State Assembly races in the State of Wisconsin.

Wisconsin: State Assembly.
Balance of power: Republicans (51 to 47; 1 independent)
2006 Results: Democrats +8
Seats up for reelection in 2008: 99
Open seats: Republicans = 6; Democrats = 5
Incumbents on the ballot: Republicans = 45; Democrats = 42; Independent = 1
Districts without major party opposition: Republicans = 6; Democrats = 24

Outlook: All signs point to a Democratic takeover of the State Assembly, for the first time since 1992. Republicans will need to defend twice as many seats that were decided by 10 points or less in 2006 (16 districts) as the Democrats (8 districts), in addition to one more open seat. Democrats are looking for pick-ups in Districts 29, 47, 50, 57, 68, 80, 87, 92, and 96. They are also hoping to be competitive in Districts 1, 32, 36, 40, 42, 55, and 89. Republicans are expecting to be competitive in Districts 28, 43, 49, 51, 88, and 93.

Projection: Democrats +7. Democrats take control of Assembly.

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