Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Getting to 15 Percent: Two Different Paths for Dean Barkley (’08) and Tim Penny (’02)

Bookmark and Share

Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley’s U.S. Senate candidacy was of great interest to the media and political junkies leading up to the 2008 election. Could Barkley launch a Ventura-esque come-from-behind victory? Would his presence on the ballot hurt Al Franken more than Norm Coleman? Would he raise enough money to even run television ads - and, if so, would they be as buzzworthy as Ventura's?

Barkley has now all but vanished from the media during a Senate recount of an election for which he nonetheless played a very significant role.

Barkley defied skeptics and academics that thought he would fade into single digits by Election Day. Instead, the former appointed Senator ended up with 15.2 percent of the vote – the largest total for a third party candidate in a Minnesota U.S. Senate race since the DFL merger in 1944.

Though Barkley’s campaign was run much differently than Independence Party candidate Tim Penny's in the 2002 gubernatorial election, they earned a nearly identical percentage of the vote (16.2 percent for Penny in an election Republican Tim Pawlenty won by 7.9 points). (Penny also endorsed Barkley for his Senate bid).

Indeed, Barkley and Penny took two entirely different paths to reach 15 and 16 percent respectively:

Penny not only reached the 30 percent mark in three-way polling as late as the September before the election, but he also won 7 counties (Waseca, Freeborn, Faribault, Fillmore, Mower, Dodge, Olmsted) and came in 2nd place in 8 more (Steele, Wabasha, Houston, Blue Earth, Le Sueur, Winona, Goodhue, Martin).

Barkley, meanwhile, never eclipsed the 20 percent mark in any public poll, and came in third place in each of the state’s 87 counties on Election Day.

Penny, of course, was able to leverage his base support in the southeastern counties of the state – whose 1st Congressional District he served as a DFLer from 1983 to 1995. Penny won two of those counties with more than 50 percent of the vote (Waseca and Freeborn), earned more than 40 percent of the vote in 5 other counties, and 30+ percent of the vote in 7 more.

Barkley, on the other hand, did not earn more than 30 percent of the vote in any county in the state; his highest tally was 26 percent in Sibley County. However, Barkley impressively tallied double-digit numbers in all but three counties statewide (Houston, Rock, and Pipestone).

Because Penny’s support was regionally based, his votes were stretched thin across the rest of the state: Penny received less than 10 percent of the vote in 11 counties – eight more than Barkley (Roseau, Polk, Clearwater, Kittson, Marshall, Beltrami, Norman, Clay, Red Lake, Wilkin, and Pennington).

Barkley and Penny fared about the same in the state’s most populous counties: 14 percent for Penny in Hennepin compared to 13 percent for Barkley and 12 percent for Penny in Ramsey compared to 13 percent for Barkley.

What does Barkley’s more consistent support statewide tell us about his campaign? On the one hand, it could mean that his base of support was strong – and the fact that his polling numbers were very consistent from late September through Election Day might be evidence of this. On the other hand, as Barkley largely relied on the debates for his media coverage to reach voters, it is possible a substantial segment of his voters across the state were folks turned off by the expensive, nasty fight between Coleman and Franken - as their ads did reach every corner of the state.

Whatever the reason, both Barkley and Penny deserve credit for giving the Independence Party an (uninvited) seat at the table alongside the DFL and the GOP in elections to come.

County-Wide Support for Tim Penny (2002) and Dean Barkley (2008)

Percent
Penny
Barkley
50+
2
0
40-49
5
0
30-39
7
0
20-29
7
17
10-19
55
67
0-9
11
3



Previous post: Will Violent Crime in Minnesota Increase Along With the Jobless Rate?
Next post: Crime and the Minnesota Economy Revisited: Brace for Property Crime Surge

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting