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How Much Will 2012 Reapportionment Reduce Minnesota’s Political Influence?

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About a year ago Smart Politics examined the political impact of Iowa losing a seat in the U.S. House, as it is projected to do after the 2012 reapportionment. State Demographer Tom Gillaspy recently projected Minnesota is also on track to lose a seat.

Should this occur, the impact on the political influence of the Gopher State and the Upper Midwest generally is quite stark upon examining the historical trend.

If Minnesota loses a seat, they will send the fewest members to the U.S. House since the 1890s. But that doesn’t tell the entire story, as in the 52nd Congress (1891-1893) there were only 332 Representatives in D.C. At that time, Minnesota, at 7 Representatives, thus held 2.1 percent of House seats. In 2012, with 435 voting members of the lower chamber, Minnesota would only account for 1.6 percent of House seats.

Therefore, you would have to go back to the 1880s, when the Gopher State sent just 5 members to the U.S. House (1.5 percent of the 325 seats), to find an era when Minnesota had less influence on policymaking in the lower chamber - at least from a sheer numbers game (Collin Peterson and Jim Oberstar’s Committee Chairmanships help alleviate that problem in the short term; Oberstar, however, is at risk of retiring each election cycle).

Upon examining the influence of the region generally – Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota – the projected 19 members sent to the House in 2012 would be the lowest since the 1860s, when the region had 14 U.S. Representatives.

However, the number of Representatives in the House ranged from 183 to 243 members during the 1860s. At its lowest percentage, the three state region accounted for 5.8 percent of Representatives that decade (in the 41st Congress, 1869-1871). That is still larger than the 4.4 percent a 19-member Minnesota-Iowa-Wisconsin delegation would account for in 2012.

In short, the 2012 reapportionment will likely find the three battleground states in the Upper Midwest at its lowest proportional representation in the U.S. House since the 1850s.

And, as the number of Representatives declines, so will the number of allocated Electoral College votes. If this population trend is not halted, how much attention will presidential candidates pay to Minnesota and its neighbors in 2012, 2016, and 2020?

Previous post: Live Blog: Fair Elections in Minnesota
Next post: Upper Midwestern Reapportionment, Part II: A Historical Overview

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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