Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Upper Midwestern Reapportionment, Part II: A Historical Overview

Bookmark and Share

In a follow-up to yesterday’s discussion of the 2012 projected reapportionment, Smart Politics presents two tables to illustrate the diminishing political influence of Minnesota and the Upper Midwestern battleground states in the U.S. House as a result of population shifts in the United States.

Table 1 demonstrates how the projected reapportionment in 2012 will give Minnesota its fewest number of seats since the 1893-1903 sessions of Congress (7 seats) and how the region collectively will send the fewest number of Representatives to the lower chamber since 1863-1873.

Table 1. Number of Upper Midwestern Battleground State U.S. House Seats By Decade

Years
MN Seats
WI Seats
IA Seats
Total Seats
1849-1853
0
3
2
5
1853-1863
2
3
2
7
1863-1873
2
6
6
14
1873-1883
3
8
9
20
1883-1893
5
9
11
25
1893-1903
7
10
11
28
1903-1913
9
11
11
31
1913-1923
10
11
11
32
1923-1933
10
11
11
32
1933-1943
9
10
9
28
1943-1953
9
10
8
27
1953-1963
9
10
8
27
1963-1973
8
10
7
25
1973-1983
8
9
6
23
1983-1993
8
9
6
23
1993-2003
8
9
5
22
2003-2013
8
8
5
21
2013-2023*
7
8
4
19
* Projected

Table 2 compiles the average number of seats in the U.S. House for each ten-year period, and then calculates the percentage of seats held in the lower chamber by each of the three Upper Midwestern states and the region overall.

This analysis finds Minnesota will tally its lowest percentage of seats in the House after the 2012 reapportionment (at 1.6 percent) since the 1883-1893 sessions, and Iowa (at 0.9 percent) will match its all-time lowest percentage of Representatives sent to D.C. since statehood.

The Upper Midwestern battleground region overall will only account for 4.4 percent of seats in the U.S. House – its lowest mark since the 1853-1863 sessions. This marks a 44.3 percent drop in the region's share of Representatives since its peak in the 1903-1913 period.

Table 2. Percentage of Upper Midwestern Battleground State U.S. House Seats By Decade

Years
US House Seats*
% MN
% WI
% IA
% Total Seats
1849-1853
233
0.0
1.3
0.9
2.1
1853-1863
225
0.9
1.3
0.9
3.1
1863-1873
218
0.9
2.8
2.8
6.4
1873-1883
293
1.0
2.7
3.1
6.8
1883-1893
328
1.5
2.7
3.4
7.6
1893-1903
357
2.0
2.8
3.1
7.8
1903-1913
390
2.3
2.8
2.8
7.9
1913-1923
435
2.3
2.5
2.5
7.4
1923-1933
435
2.3
2.5
2.5
7.4
1933-1943
435
2.1
2.3
2.1
6.4
1943-1953
435
2.1
2.3
1.8
6.2
1953-1963
436
2.1
2.3
1.8
6.2
1963-1973
435
1.8
2.3
1.6
5.7
1973-1983
435
1.8
2.1
1.4
5.3
1983-1993
435
1.8
2.1
1.4
5.3
1993-2003
435
1.8
2.1
1.1
5.1
2003-2013
435
1.8
1.8
1.1
4.8
2013-2023**
435
1.6
1.8
0.9
4.4
* Denotes average number of Representatives elected to the U.S. House during each 10-year period.

** Projected


Previous post: How Much Will 2012 Reapportionment Reduce Minnesota’s Political Influence?
Next post: Obama's Near Misses Northwest of the Mississippi

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

Political Crumbs

Does My Key Still Work?

Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


No 100-Year Curse for Roberts

Defeating his Tea Party primary challenger Milton Wolf with just 48.1 percent of the vote, Pat Roberts narrowly escaped becoming the first elected U.S. Senator from Kansas to lose a renomination bid in 100 years. The last - and so far only - elected U.S. Senator to lose a Kansas primary was one-term Republican Joseph Bristow in 1914. Bristow was defeated by former U.S. Senator Charles Curtis who went on to win three terms before becoming Herbert Hoover's running mate in 1928. Only one other U.S. Senator from the Sunflower State has lost a primary since the passage of the 17th Amendment: Sheila Frahm in 1996. Frahm was appointed to fill Bob Dole's seat earlier that year and finished 13.2 points behind Sam Brownback in the three-candidate primary field. Overall, incumbent senators from Kansas have won 29 times against two defeats in the direct vote era. (Curtis also lost a primary in 1912 to Walter Stubbs, one year before the nation moved to direct elections).


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting