Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Franken Has Big Edge in County Distribution of Absentee Ballots

Bookmark and Share

Al Franken's 49-vote lead is expected by nearly all analysts to increase after the tabulation of wrongly excluded absentee ballots by the Canvassing Board this weekend. The final, hard data is now in to confirm these suspicions.

Of the 953 ballots sent by the state's 87 counties to the Board, 513, or 54 percent, come from counties won by Al Franken, with just 440, or 46 percent, from counties carried by Norm Coleman. And that is the good news for the Coleman campaign.

Smart Politics examined the margin of victory by Coleman or Franken in each county from which each outstanding absentee ballot was cast. The results show that the vast majority of ballots coming from Coleman counties (329, or 75 percent) were counties the Senator won by just 10 points or less.

On the flip side, only 13 percent of ballots coming from Franken counties were counties the DFL nominee won by 10 points or less (69 ballots).

Over half of the ballots coming from Franken counties (267, 52 percent) were in counties Franken won by between 11 to 15 points, compared to just 43 ballots in such Coleman counties (10 percent).

Franken also has nearly three times as many ballots waiting to be counted from counties he won by 16 or more points (177) as Coleman does from counties he won by such a margin (67).

Number of Outstanding Absentee Ballots in Coleman and Franken Counties by Countywide Margin of Victory

Countywide Victory Margin
Ballots from Coleman Counties
Ballots from Franken Counties
0 to 5 points
45
39
6 to 10 points
284
30
11 to 15 points
43
267
16 to 20 points
32
76
21 to 25 points
33
101
25+ points
3
0



Previous post: Minnesota's Currently Drawn Congressional Maps 3rd Least Competitive in State History
Next post: Franken's (Apparent) Victory Is 4th Weakest U.S. Senate Performance in DFL History

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected lieutenant governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting