Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Franken Has Big Edge in County Distribution of Absentee Ballots

Bookmark and Share

Al Franken's 49-vote lead is expected by nearly all analysts to increase after the tabulation of wrongly excluded absentee ballots by the Canvassing Board this weekend. The final, hard data is now in to confirm these suspicions.

Of the 953 ballots sent by the state's 87 counties to the Board, 513, or 54 percent, come from counties won by Al Franken, with just 440, or 46 percent, from counties carried by Norm Coleman. And that is the good news for the Coleman campaign.

Smart Politics examined the margin of victory by Coleman or Franken in each county from which each outstanding absentee ballot was cast. The results show that the vast majority of ballots coming from Coleman counties (329, or 75 percent) were counties the Senator won by just 10 points or less.

On the flip side, only 13 percent of ballots coming from Franken counties were counties the DFL nominee won by 10 points or less (69 ballots).

Over half of the ballots coming from Franken counties (267, 52 percent) were in counties Franken won by between 11 to 15 points, compared to just 43 ballots in such Coleman counties (10 percent).

Franken also has nearly three times as many ballots waiting to be counted from counties he won by 16 or more points (177) as Coleman does from counties he won by such a margin (67).

Number of Outstanding Absentee Ballots in Coleman and Franken Counties by Countywide Margin of Victory

Countywide Victory Margin
Ballots from Coleman Counties
Ballots from Franken Counties
0 to 5 points
45
39
6 to 10 points
284
30
11 to 15 points
43
267
16 to 20 points
32
76
21 to 25 points
33
101
25+ points
3
0



Previous post: Minnesota's Currently Drawn Congressional Maps 3rd Least Competitive in State History
Next post: Franken's (Apparent) Victory Is 4th Weakest U.S. Senate Performance in DFL History

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting