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Republicans In Minnesota Warming to Obama More Than In Other Upper Midwestern States

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Barack Obama is officially in the ‘honeymoon phase’ of his presidency – the 44th president is just one week into his administration with approval ratings through the roof (67 percent in the latest Gallup survey, with just 14 percent disapproving).

It is no surprise to learn that Democrats and independents are giving Obama high marks and are optimistic that the new administration can begin to solve some of the economic and foreign policy problems that beset the presidency of George W. Bush.

But what about Republicans?

The latest SurveyUSA poll released last week found Republicans in Minnesota to be giving Obama significant support, and the best notices in the Upper Midwest. Obama scored a net +3 in approval rating among GOPers in Minnesota (40 percent approving, 37 percent disapproving), compared to –11 in Wisconsin and –12 in Iowa.

Obama Presidential Approval Rating Among Upper Midwestern Republicans

State
Approve
Disapprove
Net
Minnesota
40
37
+3
Wisconsin
33
44
-11
Iowa
35
47
-12
Note: Polling conducted by SurveyUSA of 600 adults overall in each state, January 20-21, 2009.

What is even more telling, however, is that Minnesota Republicans have also had a longer journey to reach this plurality support of the President. SurveyUSA polls on the eve of the election found Republicans in Minnesota to be voting against Obama at a much higher rate than Republicans in other Upper Midwestern states.

Presidential Vote Choice Among Upper Midwestern Republicans

State
Obama
McCain
Net
Wisconsin
16
82
-66
Iowa
14
83
-69
Minnesota
10
88
-78
Note: Polling conducted by SurveyUSA of 650+ likely voters overall in each state, October 28-29, 2008 (Iowa and Wisconsin) and October 30 – November 1, 2008 (Minnesota).

Exit polling on Election Day also found Republicans to break in larger numbers against Obama in Minnesota (-83) than in Wisconsin (-79) and Iowa (-81).

Minnesota Republicans also gave Obama the fifth highest approval rating among the 14 states SurveyUSA polled nationwide last week – behind only the liberal coastal states of New York, Massachusetts, Washington, and California. Wisconsin and Iowa ranked 12th and 13th respectively.

Obama Presidential Approval Rating Among Republicans In 14 States

State
Approve
Disapprove
Net
New York
63
25
+38
Massachusetts
54
31
+23
Washington
47
34
+13
California
47
36
+11
Minnesota
40
37
+3
New Mexico
40
40
0
Kansas
39
39
0
Oregon
36
39
-3
Missouri
37
42
-5
Kentucky
36
45
-9
Alabama
34
43
-9
Wisconsin
33
44
-11
Iowa
35
47
-12
Virginia
31
44
-13
Note: Polling conducted by SurveyUSA of 600 adults overall in each state, January 20-21, 2009.

Of course, it is unlikely, if and when Al Franken takes a seat on Capitol Hill later this year, that he will experience such a honeymoon period from Minnesota Republicans as that currently enjoyed by Obama.


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Remains of the Data

The Longest-Held Republican US Senate Seats

Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming claim seven of the Top 10 spots on the list.

Political Crumbs

Curse of the '4'?

Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.


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