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Obama Sustains Early Support in Minnesota; Falters in Wisconsin and Iowa

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SurveyUSA’s latest round of approval ratings for President Barack Obama have been released for a dozen states across the country, in polling conducted March 20-22 of 600 adults in each state.

Although the President has had a consistently higher job performance rating during the first three months of his tenure in states such as New York, Massachusetts, California, and Washington, in no state have Obama’s early supporters been as faithful as those in the State of Minnesota.

From January (64 percent) to March (61 percent), Obama has only lost 4.7 percent of his support in the Gopher State, the lowest of the 12 states polled each month by SurveyUSA. Obama received an approval rating of 62 percent in February in Minnesota.

By contrast, Obama has lost support among Wisconsinites at more than 5 times this rate. Falling at a 24.3 percent clip since his inauguration, the President has seen his approval rating drop from 70 percent in January to 53 percent in March in the Badger State – the largest dip across the 12 states. Obama's approval rating fell 11.7 percent since February (60 percent).

Obama is also seeing a larger than average erosion of early supporters in Iowa, where 57 percent now approve of the job he is doing as president, down 16.2 percent from January (68 percent) – the third largest drop in support among the 12 states polled by SurveyUSA. The President's job approval rating fell 9.5 percent since February in the Hawkeye State (63 percent).

Erosion of Approval for Barack Obama’s Performance as President

Rank
State
January
March
% Change
1
Minnesota
64
61
-4.7
2
New York
78
72
-7.7
3
Kentucky
62
56
-9.7
4
Washington
69
62
-10.1
5
Virginia
62
55
-11.3
6
Kansas
62
55
-11.3
7
Missouri
65
57
-12.3
8
Massachusetts
78
68
-12.8
9
California
77
67
-13.0
10
Iowa
68
57
-16.2
11
Alabama
60
47
-21.7
12
Wisconsin
70
53
-24.3
 
Average
68.0
59.2
-12.9
Note: As of post time, SurveyUSA had not yet released numbers for two states polled in its January and February rounds – New Mexico and Oregon.

Interestingly, Obama’s support is holding much stronger in states like Kentucky (56 percent, 9.7 percent drop), and Kansas (55 percent, 11.3 percent drop) – states in which Obama received only 41 and 42 percent of the presidential vote respectively.

Obama currently has an approval rating that is 15 points higher in Kentucky than the vote he received for president in that state. In Kansas the President is currently +13. Minnesota ranks in the middle of the pack with the President’s approval rating (61 percent) resting 7 points higher than his vote tally on Election Day (54 percent).

Only the State of Wisconsin finds Obama with a lower approval rating today (53 percent) than his statewide vote last November (56 percent) among these dozen states.

Obama Presidential Vote Share vs. March Approval Ratings

Rank
State
Vote
Approval
Difference
1
Kentucky
41
56
15
2
Kansas
42
55
13
3
New York
63
72
9
4
Alabama
39
47
8
5
Missouri
49
57
8
6
Minnesota
54
61
7
7
Massachusetts
62
68
6
8
California
61
67
6
9
Washington
57
62
5
10
Iowa
54
57
3
11
Virginia
53
55
2
12
Wisconsin
56
53
-3
Note: As of post time, SurveyUSA had not yet released numbers for two states polled in its January and February rounds – New Mexico and Oregon.

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2 Comments


  • http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls Ohh statistics. He was at 69%% in his first job approval poll since taking office, second only to Kennedy for the same time period, he got 72%. And Obama's mid-March approvals are higher than both Bushes, Clinton and Reagan in their first terms. Yeah, at least Minnesota is consistent. Who really expected Republicans to hold on though? We wish. With all that's on his plate and afoot for people though? I think that and just not enough to go on, is why you're seeing some of these stats all over the map. Also why I sort of hate these and the '100 day' thing in general- geez, let's give it 6 months at least and then see what's what. I also just happen to like realclear because at least it puts all the polls together in one place and breaks the samples down and such- I couldn't find state breakdowns this time though. 60-63% across the board approval in this climate? Good! Cheers! Carry on.. :)

  • These are interesting stats, but I'd like to see some analysis of the numbers. What does it mean that Obama has retained such strong support in MN as compared to WI and IA? Is it a good thing? A bad thing? Do the state-by-state stats on the the economy shed any light on Obama's popularity stats? Stats are fun ... but analysis is better.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

    Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

    Political Crumbs

    Evolving?

    When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


    73 Months and Counting

    January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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