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Obama Approval Rating Holding Steady in Minnesota and Blue States, Still Dropping in Red States

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Barack Obama's latest approval rating in Minnesota remains in the low 60s - holding essentially, and impressively, flat for the third consecutive month, according to the latest round of polling by SurveyUSA.

For the month of April, in a survey of 600 adults statewide, 63 percent of Minnesotans approve of the job Obama is doing as President - compared to 61 percent in March and 62 percent in February. Only 33 percent disapprove of Obama's job performance. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent.

Minnesotans appear to be mirroring what is a nationwide trend, at least among the 14 states tracked each month by SurveyUSA. Obama started with very high marks in both red and blue states after Inauguration Day, only to see his marks fall across all states in February after controversial economic stimulus legislation was passed in D.C.

But in the states polled by SurveyUSA that Obama carried last November (California, Iowa, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin), his collective approval rating has remained virtually flat for the last three months - 62.2 percent in February, 61.8 percent in March, and 62.7 percent in April.

Obama's disapproval rating has also remained essentially unchanged during this span among these 10 states: 32.8 percent in February, 32.6 percent in March, and 32.5 percent in April.

However, in the states polled by SurveyUSA that Obama failed to carry in 2008 (Alabama, Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri), Obama's aggregate approval rating has dropped from 62.3 percent in January to 53.8 percent in March, to 50.3 percent in April. Perhaps more telling, his disapproval rating has increased from 23.5 percent in January to 40.5 percent in February, to 41.0 percent in March to 45.0 percent in April in these four more conservative states. In short, the honeymoon period appears to be about over for Obama in McCain Country.

As a result, the net "blue state" versus "red state" difference in Obama's approval rating has increased from 7.7 points in January to 12.5 points in April. (This includes, admittedly, a few purple states tracked by SurveyUSA; for the purpose of this post, "blue state" is shorthand for those states carried by Obama, and "red state" is shorthand for those won by Republican John McCain).

The net difference in disapproval rating between Obama and McCain states has also increased each month, from 5.7 points in January to 12.5 points in April.

Presidential Disapproval Rating in McCain States vs. Obama States

Month
McCain states
Obama states
Difference
Jan 2009
23.5
17.8
5.7
Feb 2009
40.5
32.8
7.7
Mar 2009
41.0
32.6
8.4
Apr 2009
45.0
32.5
12.5
Note: SurveyUSA polling data compiled by Smart Politics.

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3 Comments


  • I think Obama will make America on right way to make peace and freedom around the world.

  • Very nice article, i get much and valuable information from you. Thanks.

  • Only 592 days left in Obama's reign. I'm hoping for change already! :D

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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