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Smart Politics
 


September 2009


Will Democrats Lose 20+ U.S. House Seats in 2010? A Counterpoint.

Two-thirds of the seats won by Democrats in 2008 (170, 66 percent) were won in landslide fashion, decided by more than 30 points over their Republican challengers

Has Ron Paul Converted Michele Bachmann To Libertarianism?

The event was illuminating for Bachmann's reaction to Paul's speech - a public display by the Congresswoman regarding her positive and negative reactions to Paul's unique brand of libertarian conservatism

Former MN GOP Congressman Weber Outlines National Security Challenges Facing President Obama

"The world has been getting more dangerous as we've been arguing about health care."

Wisconsin's Current Congressional District Maps 2nd Least Competitive in State History

Only 6.3 percent of U.S. House elections since 2002 have been decided by less than 10 points (2 of 32 contests)

Which States Do Presidents Come From? (Not Minnesota, Yet)

Ohio leads the way with seven presidents; New York has six

Half of Minnesotans Believe Pawlenty Will Be the 2012 GOP Presidential Nominee

Minnesotans are increasingly of the view that Governor Tim Pawlenty will win the Republican nomination for President in 2012

Minnesota Housing Foreclosure Rate Still Up 67 Percent Since Election Day

Minnesota continues to have the highest foreclosure rate in the Upper Midwest

Iowa Unemployment Soars at Historic Rate; Governor Culver's Rating Hits Record Low

Chet Culver has seen his job approval ratings drop 37 percent from December 2008 to August 2009

Wisconsin's Unemployment Rate Drops for First Time in 15 Months

During the previous one and a quarter year span, jobless claims in the Badger State increased 105 percent through July, from 4.4 to 9.0 percent

Minnesota Unemployment Rate Drops to 10-Year Low Against National Rate

The U.S. rate is 1.7 points higher than the Gopher State for the largest percentage point difference since April 1999

How Competitive Can Eva Ng Make the 2009 St. Paul Mayoral General Election?

Barack Obama won all 104 precincts in St. Paul, winning 75.6 percent of the vote and notching a 53.2-point margin of victory over McCain city-wide

Red States Have Higher Crime Rates Than Blue States

Red states across the nation have both higher violent and property crime rates than blue states, across several measures of partisanship

Minnesota Crime Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since the Moon Landing

Uniform Crime Reports data released this week finds the Gopher State's overall crime rate falling to its lowest level since 1969

What Are the Odds of Incumbents Winning All 8 of Minnesota's U.S. House Races in 2010?

Out of the 32 elections in which each of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives have appeared on the general election ballot, incumbents swept their contests in just 19 instances, or 59 percent of the time

Are Minnesota's U.S. House Seats Safer for Incumbents Today Than in the Past?

In the current census period, 2002-2008, Minnesota's U.S. House incumbents have been reelected at a rate of 93.1 percent, or 27 of 29 contests

National Radio Host Mike Gallagher Fundraises for Rep. Joe Wilson

Gallagher called Representative Wilson a "hero" in standing up to the President and vowed he could raise $100,000 in 30 minutes from his listeners

How Big is the Incumbency Advantage in Minnesota's U.S. House Races?

425 Minnesota U.S. House incumbents have won their general election matchups, 62 were defeated, and an additional 14 failed to win their party's nomination

Michele Bachmann: History Is On Her Side

For 2-term incumbents, like Congresswoman Bachmann, 88.2 percent have won a third consecutive term, or 75 out of 85 Representatives

In Search of Minnesota's Bellwether House District(s)

For better or for worse, during the past decade Minnesota has developed a national reputation for being a bit of an 'oddball' state - politically, that is. And, at first blush, the Gopher State is an easy target for even easier punchlines for having elected a former pro-wrestler to the...

Minnesotans Still Divided Over Pawlenty; Culver and Doyle Ratings in 30s

While residents of Iowa and Wisconsin are speaking in loud, disapproving voices over the performance of their respective Democratic governors, Minnesotans are still basically split down the middle over how they rate the performance of Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty. The latest SurveyUSA poll of 600 Minnesota residents, conducted August 26-27,...

Klobuchar's Approval Rebounds While Senators Grassley, Harkin, Kohl, and Feingold's Sink to Historic Lows

The latest round of SurveyUSA polling finds Minnesota U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar rebounding back into familiar territory, while many of her Upper Midwestern colleagues see their job performance marks sink to record lows and struggle to reach even a positive net approval rating. Minnesotans give Senator Klobuchar a 58 percent...

A Profile of Minnesota's Swing and Stronghold State Senate Districts

During the past three days Smart Politics has issued reports analyzing party strength in the state's 134 House districts - including analyses on the state's 40 swing districts, the 94 DFL and GOP stronghold districts, and the barriers the Republican Party faces as it begins to rebuild and attempt to...

How Many Minnesota House 'Swing Districts' Will Return to the GOP in 2010?

This week Smart Politics has issued two reports profiling the battle for the Minnesota House in 2010, first by documenting the barriers the GOP faces to cut into the the DFL's 40-seat advantage, and then by highlighting the 94 'stronghold' districts where the DFL and GOP have remained undefeated respectively...

Obama Approval Rating Holds in Minnesota, Plummets in Iowa and Wisconsin

Although Barack Obama's approval rating has taken an (expected) hit in Minnesota since the beginning of his term, a hit all presidents endure, a new SurveyUSA poll finds Gopher State residents much more patient with the new Democratic president than many states across the nation. A poll of 600 adults,...

A Profile of Minnesota's 94 DFL and GOP 'Stronghold' House Districts

In Monday's first part in a series of reports looking ahead to the battle for the Minnesota House in 2010, Smart Politics outlined several significant hurdles the Republican Party faces to not simply make a long-shot run at taking back the lower chamber in St. Paul, but to even make...