A new Minnesota Poll released this week finds a majority of Gopher State residents opposed to a presidential bid by Governor Tim Pawlenty and a plurality of 43 percent saying there is 'no chance' they would cast their vote for him.

The Star Tribune finding that there is barely lukewarm support in Pawlenty's home state for him to seek the highest office in the land, comes as Pawlenty has been running a distant fifth or sixth in (very) early national GOP horserace polls behind more well-known potential candidates such as Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich.

While Pawlenty's support would likely grow nationwide once he launched an official candidacy (he launches his Freedom First PAC on Thursday), the new Minnesota Poll raises the question - could Pawlenty win the presidency without carrying his home state of Minnesota?

While it is still 2.5 years out from even the presidential primaries, the question is not a far-fetched one to consider from one perspective - a mid-September Rasmussen poll found half of Minnesotans to believe Pawlenty will win the GOP nomination should he run for President.

As analyzed by Smart Politics last week, no president has come from Minnesota to date, and only one has come from the Upper Midwest region (Herbert Hoover, from Iowa, in 1928).

Still, history has demonstrated that it is (nearly) a necessary though not a sufficient condition that presidential nominees must carry their home state if they wish to win the presidency.

A Smart Politics analysis of the 56 presidential elections since 1789 found that all but two presidents carried their home state en route to victory.

The first president to win the White House without his home state was Democrat James Polk in 1844. Polk lost Tennessee by just 123 votes to Kentucky's Henry Clay out of nearly 120,000 cast, but still defeated Clay 170-105 in the Electoral College vote.

Then, in 1916, Democratic incumbent Woodrow Wilson lost his home state of New Jersey by 11.7 points to New York GOPer Charles Hughes. Wilson had carried New Jersey by 7.6 points in 1912 over New Yorker Teddy Roosevelt.

That's the entire list.

As such, it does not appear that Pawlenty could have much success in 2012 if he fails to at least enlist Minnesotans among his supporters for such a bid.

Home State Presidential Vote for U.S. Presidents

Year	President	State	Won	Percent	MoV
2008	Obama	Illinois	Yes	61.9	25.1
2004	Bush	Texas	Yes	61.1	22.9
2000	Bush	Texas	Yes	59.3	21.3
1996	Clinton	Arkansas	Yes	53.7	16.9
1992	Clinton	Arkansas	Yes	53.2	17.7
1988	Bush	Texas	Yes	56.0	12.6
1984	Reagan	California	Yes	57.5	16.2
1980	Reagan	California	Yes	52.7	16.8
1976	Carter	Georgia	Yes	66.7	33.8
1972	Nixon	California	Yes	55.0	13.5
1968	Nixon	California	Yes	47.8	3.1
1964	L. Johnson	Texas	Yes	63.3	26.8
1960	Kennedy	Massachusetts	Yes	60.2	20.7
1956	Eisenhower	Pennsylvania	Yes	56.5	13.2
1952	Eisenhower	Pennsylvania	Yes	52.7	5.9
1948	Truman	Missouri	Yes	58.1	16.6
1944	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	52.3	5.0
1940	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	51.6	3.6
1936	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	58.9	19.9
1932	F. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	54.1	12.7
1928	Hoover	Iowa	Yes	61.8	24.2
1924	Coolidge	Massachusetts	Yes	62.3	37.4
1920	Harding	Ohio	Yes	58.5	19.9
1916	Wilson	New Jersey	No	42.7	-11.7
1912	Wilson	New Jersey	Yes	41.2	7.6
1908	Taft	Ohio	Yes	51.0	6.2
1904	T. Roosevelt	New York	Yes	53.1	10.9
1900	McKinley	Ohio	Yes	52.3	6.6
1896	McKinley	Ohio	Yes	51.9	4.8
1892	Cleveland	New York	Yes	49.0	3.4
1888	B. Harrison	Indiana	Yes	49.1	0.4
1884	Cleveland	New York	Yes	48.3	0.1
1880	Garfield	Ohio	Yes	51.7	4.7
1876	Hayes	Ohio	Yes	50.2	1.1
1872	Grant	Ohio	Yes	53.2	7.1
1868	Grant	Ohio	Yes	54.0	8.0
1864	Lincoln	Illinois	Yes	54.4	8.8
1860	Lincoln	Illinois	Yes	50.7	3.5
1856	Buchanan	Pennsylvania	Yes	50.1	18.1
1852	Pierce	New Hampshire	Yes	56.4	25.8
1848	Taylor	Louisiana	Yes	54.6	9.2
1844	Polk	Tennessee	No	50.0	-0.1
1840	W.H. Harrison	Ohio	Yes	54.1	8.5
1836	Van Buren	New York	Yes	54.6	9.3
1832	Jackson	Tennessee	Yes	95.4	90.8
1828	Jackson	Tennessee	Yes	95.2	90.4
1824	J.Q. Adams	Massachusetts	Yes	73.0	57.2
1820	Monroe	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1816	Monroe	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1812	Madison	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1808	Madison	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1804	Jefferson	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1800	Jefferson	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1796	J. Adams	Massachusetts	Yes	---	---
1792	Washington	Virginia	Yes	---	---
1789	Washington	Virginia	Yes	---	---

Data compiled by Smart Politics.

Normally, a failure to win one's home state spells disaster for a presidential nominee.

In total, 27 of the 29 major political party candidates who have not carried their home state since 1824, lost the presidential election.That means nearly half (27) of the 60 defeated presidential candidates who have carried at least 1 state in the general election since 1824 failed to win their home state.

(Beginning in 1824 most, but not all states selected electors based on popular vote).

The most recent candidate to fall into this category is, of course, Al Gore of Tennessee in the 2000 presidential election. Gore is one of two presidential candidates who would have won the general election had they simply carried their home state on Election Day. Tennessee's 11 electoral votes would more than have made up for Gore's Electoral College deficit to George W. Bush.

The other candidate whose presidential bid was derailed by his inability to win his home state was Grover Cleveland during his reelection campaign of 1888. Cleveland lost his home state of New York's 36 electoral votes by 1.1 points (14,373 votes), which would have flipped Benjamin Harrison's 233-168 Electoral College victory to a 204-197 margin for Cleveland. Cleveland won the Empire State in his two successful presidential bids - by 0.1 points in 1884 over James Blaine of Maine and by 3.4 points in 1892 during his rematch against Harrison.

Home State Presidential Vote Outcome Among Defeated Presidential Candidates

Year	Candidate	State	Won	Percent	MoV
2008	McCain	Arizona	Yes	53.4	8.5
2004	Kerry	Massachusetts	Yes	61.9	25.2
2000	Gore	Tennessee	No	47.3	-3.9
1996	Dole	Kansas	Yes	54.3	18.2
1992	Bush	Texas	Yes	40.6	3.5
1988	Dukakis	Massachusetts	Yes	53.2	7.9
1984	Mondale	Minnesota	Yes	49.7	0.2
1980	Carter	Georgia	Yes	55.8	14.8
1976	Ford	Michigan	Yes	51.8	5.4
1972	McGovern	South Dakota	No	45.5	-8.6
1968	Humphrey	Minnesota	Yes	54.0	12.5
1968	Wallace	Alabama	Yes	65.9	47.1
1964	Goldwater	Arizona	Yes	50.5	1.0
1960	Nixon	California	Yes	50.1	0.6
1956	Stevenson	Illinois	No	40.3	-19.2
1952	Stevenson	Illinois	No	44.9	-9.9
1948	Dewey	New York	Yes	46.0	1.0
1948	Thurmond	South Carolina	Yes	72.0	47.8
1944	Dewey	New York	No	47.3	-5.0
1940	Wilkie	New York	No	48.0	-3.6
1936	Landon	Kansas	No	46.0	-7.7
1932	Hoover	Iowa	No	40.0	-17.7
1928	Smith	New York	No	47.4	-2.4
1924	Davis	West Virginia	No	44.1	-5.4
1924	LaFollette	Wisconsin	Yes	54.0	16.9
1920	Cox	Ohio	No	38.6	-19.9
1916	Hughes	New York	Yes	51.5	7.0
1912	T. Roosevelt	New York	No	24.6	-16.7
1912	Taft	Ohio	No	26.8	-14.1
1908	Bryan	Nebraska	Yes	49.1	1.5
1904	Parker	New York	No	42.3	-10.9
1900	Bryan	Nebraska	No	47.2	-3.2
1896	Bryan	Nebraska	Yes	51.3	3.7
1892	B. Harrison	Indiana	No	46.2	-1.3
1892	Weaver	Iowa	No	4.7	-45.0
1888	Cleveland	New York	No	48.2	-1.1
1884	Blaine	Maine	Yes	55.3	15.4
1880	Hancock	Pennsylvania	No	46.6	-4.3
1876	Tilden	New York	Yes	51.4	3.2
1872	Greeley	New York	No	46.8	-6.5
1868	Seymour	New York	Yes	50.6	1.2
1864	McClellan	New Jersey	Yes	52.8	5.7
1860	Breckenridge	Kentucky	No	36.4	-8.8
1860	Douglas	Illinois	No	47.2	-3.5
1860	Bell	Tennessee	Yes	47.7	3.2
1856	Fremont	California	No	18.8	-29.6
1856	Fillmore	New York	No	20.9	-25.4
1852	Scott	New Jersey	No	46.3	-6.9
1848	Cass	Michigan	Yes	47.2	10.4
1844	Clay	Kentucky	Yes	54.1	8.2
1840	Van Buren	New York	No	48.2	-3.0
1836	W. Harrison	Ohio	Yes	51.9	4.3
1836	White	Tennessee	Yes	57.9	15.8
1836	Webster	Massachusetts	Yes	55.1	10.3
1832	Clay	Kentucky	Yes	54.5	9.0
1832	Wirt	Maryland	No	0.0	-50.0
1828	J.Q. Adams	Massachusetts	Yes	76.4	61.0
1824	Jackson	Tennessee	Yes	97.5	95.9
1824	Clay	Kentucky	Yes	72.8	45.5
1824	Crawford	Georgia	Yes	N/A*	N/A*

* In 1824, electors in Georgia were chosen by the state legislature rather than by popular vote. Table lists all presidential candidates who lost their presidential bid since 1824 but carried at least one state. Data compiled by Smart Politics.

As for Pawlenty, while he gets credit for winning reelection in a light blue state in 2006, when many Republican incumbents across the country were getting soundly defeated, the knock on the Governor by his critics is that he has won fairly narrow victories in the Gopher State with only a plurality of the vote (due, in part, to stronger than normal third parties in Minnesota).

As for our recent presidents, not only have they been winning their home states en route to the White House, but they have been doing so by larger and larger margins in recent years.

· During the 9 presidential elections from 1976 through 2008, presidents have won their home states by an average of 20.4 points in the general election.

· During the previous 9 presidential elections, from 1940 through 1972, presidents won their home states by an average of just 12.0 points.

· Barack Obama's 25.1 point home state victory in Illinois in 2008 was the 4th largest such margin since 1856 (behind only Jimmy Carter's 33.8 point victory in Georgia in 1976, Lyndon Johnson's 26.8 point victory in Texas in 1964, and Calvin Coolidge's 37.4 point win in Massachusetts in 1924).

· Overall, across the 47 elections since 1824, victorious presidential candidates have won their home states by an average victory margin of 16.5 points.

As a historical note, there have been five instances since 1824 in which the two major party presidential nominees were from the same home state:

· 1860's four-candidate battle for the White House included Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglas, both from Illinois.
· 1904 saw a matchup between New Yorkers Teddy Roosevelt and Alton Parker.
· 1920 was a battle between Ohioans Warren Harding and James Cox.
· 1940 saw a matchup between New Yorkers Franklin Roosevelt and Wendell Wilkie.
· 1944 matched Roosevelt against another New Yorker, Thomas Dewey.

In sum, history suggests that should Pawlenty emerge from the pack and become the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2012, his ability or inability to win over Minnesotans will therefore likely be the first tell as to whether he will have success generally with his campaign.

For if Pawlenty fails to carry a home battleground state, he would likely struggle even more to win important neighboring battleground states such as Wisconsin and Iowa.

And we only have 3+ years to wait and see.

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