Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Bachmann vs Franken in 2014: A Dream Matchup?

Bookmark and Share

Scenario could also be best chance for 3rd party revival in Gopher State

With all apologies to those who believe any analysis of the 2012 presidential election is still too premature, a newly released Rasmussen poll measuring the job performance of some members of the Minnesota congressional delegation raises an interesting hypothetical scenario for the Gopher State's 2014 U.S. Senate race.

The Rasmussen poll of 1,000 likely voters is the first to take the temperature of Minnesotans across the state regarding their views toward controversial 6th Congressional District Republican Representative Michele Bachmann.

Although she only represents one-eighth of the state in D.C., Congresswoman Bachmann notched a 51 percent approval rating from Minnesotans, with 45 percent disapproving of her job performance.

As a further sign of how much Bachmann has become a star within the Republican Party and increasingly visible to all Minnesotans (and the country) - aided by her frequent media appearances - only 4 percent of likely Gopher State voters did not have an opinion about Representative Bachmann's job performance, even though 87 percent of the state is not represented by her in Congress.

The Rasmussen poll, conducted on November 10th, also measured the approval rating of new U.S. Senator, DFLer Al Franken. A nearly identical 50 percent of likely voters approved of the job Franken is doing as Senator with 45 percent disapproving.

The double-take identical job ratings Minnesotans give Bachmann and Franken are further evidence of the schizophrenic nature of the Gopher State electorate (which has failed to elect a DFLer to the governor's mansion in nearly a quarter-century, but has the longest streak in the nation for voting Democratic in presidential elections).

Bachmann is one of the most conservative members of the U.S. House, and reviled by many on the left, while Franken is considered to be in the liberal wing of the Democratic Party (with a name that brings shivers to the spine of Minnesota Republicans, not to mention leading national conservatives, such as Bill O'Reilly of FOX News).

What is particularly interesting about the new poll results is that a higher percentage of the (Democratic-leaning) statewide electorate currently approves of Bachmann's job performance than the percentage of residents in the state's most conservative congressional district who voted her into office for a second term last November (46 percent).

Of course, Bachmann's viability as a statewide candidate in 2014 is likely contingent on her surviving the fierce, well-funded challenges by the DFL for her House seat in 2010 and, if she wins a third term, for her newly-drawn district after redistricting in 2012.

As for Franken, who won only 42 percent of the vote in his 2008 challenge of Republican Norm Coleman, he will face the task in 2014 of running with an actual record (although Coleman's camp made a strong effort last year to highlight (controversial) statements made by Franken prior to his becoming a Senatorial candidate).

And for those Minnesotans who thought the Franken-Coleman contest was particularly brutal, negative, and costly - consider what a Bachmann-Franken matchup would look like.

Although made out to be quite partisan by Franken supporters and the liberal blogosphere, Norm Coleman was actually one of the most ideologically moderate Republicans in the U.S. Senate during his last four years in D.C.

As such, the ideological distance between Bachmann and Franken is much greater than it is between Coleman and Franken, and the troops would be even more fired up on both the left and the right if such a matchup would come about in five years.

As a result, this hypothetical Bachmann-Franken scenario would likely provide a serious opening for a third party candidate to make a strong run for the seat.

The Franken-Coleman battle enabled Independence Party nominee Dean Barkley to notch the largest third party vote in a Minnesota U.S. Senate election (15.2 percent) since the DFL merger in 1944.

Assuming the Independence Party will still have major party status three election cycles from now, a viable, moderate candidate could have a real chance to win over a good chunk of the state's independent voters (who comprise approximately 25 to 30 percent of the Minnesota electorate) as well as peel away conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans from the Franken and Bachmann camps respectively.

But it's not 2014 yet.

And, in the meantime, Minnesota will hold a little something called the 2010 gubernatorial election plus 16 U.S. House races and another U.S. Senate race in 2012. Those races should provide Smart Politics with plenty of news to keep 2014 (mostly) off the radar.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Bachmann and Paulsen Are Biggest Fundraisers in 5 of Minnesota's 8 Congressional Districts in 2009
Next post: Is Norm Coleman Truly the GOP Preference for Its 2010 Gubernatorial Nominee?

3 Comments


  • I wouldn't give too much credence to Rasmussen polls. their rightward leaning house effect is at least 5-10 points, and their internet and computerized polls are not very accurate.

    Let's wait for a real polling agency to do gauge how the public feels before we jump to conclusions and base an entire article on questionable data.

  • > I wouldn't give too much credence to Rasmussen polls. their
    > rightward leaning house effect is at least 5-10 points, and their
    > internet and computerized polls are not very accurate.

    Actually, Rasmussen polling has been quite accurate during the last few election cycles. Even the left-leaning 538.com puts Rasmussen near the top in the "Pollster Ratings" analysis.

    Rasmussen and SurveyUSA have both proved the 'experts' wrong that "robo-polling" is inherently inferior to traditional polling methodologies.

  • Eric, I think the 6th District Congressional race is shaping up to be a preview of a Bachmann- Franken type match up. I feel if the DFL chooses Clark over Reed , we will have a Franken vs Bachmann type race. I agree with your assessment "As a result, this hypothetical Bachmann- Franken scenario would likely provide a serious opening for a third party candidate to make a strong run for the seat." I feel Congresswoman Bachmann is reaching to far to the right and State Sen.Clark with Sen.Franken and all the union endorsements in her corner is to far to the left. The middle is open for a right leaning Independent in the most conservative district in the state.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

    Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

    Political Crumbs

    Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

    Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


    Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

    Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting