Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Is Norm Coleman Truly the GOP Preference for Its 2010 Gubernatorial Nominee?

Bookmark and Share

Early poll, though omitting candidates, suggests Coleman's wait-and-see approach is working

A new Rasmussen poll of 330 likely Republican primary voters in the Gopher State finds 50 percent want former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman to be their nominee.

Or do they?

To the chagrin of several candidates running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, not all Republican Party hopefuls were listed in the Rasmussen polling question (which was conducted on November 10th).

In fact, two of the four names listed in the survey have given no official indication they are even going to be running in the gubernatorial race: Norm Coleman and State Representative Laura Brod (though neither Coleman nor Brod have completely closed the door on such a run).

In the new poll, 50 percent cited Coleman as their preference, with 11 percent naming former House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert, 5 percent preferring Brod, and 1 percent supporting State Representative Tom Emmer - the only four choices given to respondents. Twenty-six percent were unsure.

That left off candidates such as former State Auditor Pat Anderson, State Senator David Hann, former State Representative David Haas, as well as long-shot candidates Phil Herwig and Leslie Davis.

Although Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer have alternately fared well in various straw polls conducted throughout the state this year, no doubt name recognition played a significant factor in Coleman being the apparent preference of Republicans at this early stage in the 2010 race in the Rasmussen poll.

And as for Coleman's potential 2010 run?

During his concession speech for the U.S. Senate race on June 30th, Coleman stated he would make an announcement on his plans shortly after the July 4th weekend.

But no announcement came.

After more than three weeks of silence from the Coleman camp, on the evening of July 26th Smart Politics outlined several reasons why it was not in Coleman's interest to announce his 2010 plans at this early stage:

· First, announcing too early would emphasize Coleman's 'career politician' image and smack of desperation coming out of the 2008 contest.
· Secondly, launching a gubernatorial campaign so soon after his Senate bid ended would not be the most prudent way to re-approach donors and kick off a fundraising campaign, after recently asking them to contribute several millions of dollars during his Senate reelection bid and recount efforts.
· Third, with former Congressman Jim Ramstad out of the running, Coleman could bide his time knowing he would be by far the biggest name in the GOP race and have virtually no competition from the left side of the party for the nomination.
· Fourthly, in an effort to shed the 'professional politician' moniker to the greatest extent possible, it was in Coleman's interest to make it seem as if he is being 'recruited' to run for governor. Poll results like Rasmussen's give Coleman just that.

The day after the Smart Politics blog was posted, on July 27th, Coleman's spokesperson said the former Senator would likely wait until March or April 2010 to announce his plans, seemingly following the Smart Politics strategy to a 'T'. (No, Smart Politics does not have a mole in the Coleman camp).

In the meantime, it is clear the announced GOP candidates are not going to be paralyzed by Coleman's mysterious intentions - appearances are ramping up for the Republican hopefuls, as the field begins to narrow (State Senator Mike Jungbauer and State Representative Paul Kohls have dropped out of the race in recent weeks).

Whether or not Coleman will ultimately have 50+ percent of the support of the GOP electorate across the state by the time the Republican primary takes place remains to be seen, but the Rasmussen poll suggests there is little harm in the Senator's wait-and-see strategy for the moment.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Bachmann vs Franken in 2014: A Dream Matchup?
Next post: How Common Is Military Service in the Biographies of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives?

2 Comments


  • It would be awesome to run against Norm Coleman. Could I be so lucky?

  • Too bad this is such a poorly composed poll. It would have been constructive to include all of the declared candidates. Somehow this sounds like a very calculated push-poll designed specifically to get Norm into the race. Who paid for the poll?

    What might be constructive would be a poll of GOP delegates and alternates to determine who is favored in the endorsement race. Unless of course the endorsement of the folks who chop the wood and carry the watter means nothing anymore.

    If any candidate

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Which States Have the Longest and Shortest Election Day Voting Hours?

    Residents in some North Dakota towns have less than half as many hours to cast their ballots as those in New York State.

    Political Crumbs

    Mary Burke: English First?

    While multiculturalism and bilingualism are increasingly en vogue in some quarters as the world seemingly becomes a smaller place, one very high profile 2014 Democratic candidate does not shy away from the fact that she only speaks one language: English. In an attempt to highlight her private sector credentials working for Trek Bicycle, Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial nominee Mary Burke boasts on her campaign bio page how she made great strides in international business dealings...while only speaking English: "Despite not speaking a single foreign language, she established sales and distribution operations in seven countries over just three years." Note: According to 2010 Census data, nearly half a million Wisconsinites over five years old speak a language other than English at home, or 8.7 percent, while 4.6 percent of Badger State residents do not speak English at all.


    Does My Key Still Work?

    Much has been made about Charlie Crist's political transformation from Republican to independent to Democrat en route to winning the Florida GOP and Democratic gubernatorial nominations over a span of eight years. Party-switching aside, Crist is also vying to become just the second Florida governor to serve two interrupted terms. Democrat William Bloxham was the first - serving four year terms from 1881 to 1885 and then 1897 to 1901. Florida did not permit governors serving consecutive terms for most of its 123 years prior to changes made in its 1968 constitution. Since then four have done so: Democrats Reubin Askew, Bob Graham, and Lawton Chiles and Republican Jeb Bush.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting