Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Is Norm Coleman Truly the GOP Preference for Its 2010 Gubernatorial Nominee?

Bookmark and Share

Early poll, though omitting candidates, suggests Coleman's wait-and-see approach is working

A new Rasmussen poll of 330 likely Republican primary voters in the Gopher State finds 50 percent want former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman to be their nominee.

Or do they?

To the chagrin of several candidates running for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, not all Republican Party hopefuls were listed in the Rasmussen polling question (which was conducted on November 10th).

In fact, two of the four names listed in the survey have given no official indication they are even going to be running in the gubernatorial race: Norm Coleman and State Representative Laura Brod (though neither Coleman nor Brod have completely closed the door on such a run).

In the new poll, 50 percent cited Coleman as their preference, with 11 percent naming former House Minority Leader Rep. Marty Seifert, 5 percent preferring Brod, and 1 percent supporting State Representative Tom Emmer - the only four choices given to respondents. Twenty-six percent were unsure.

That left off candidates such as former State Auditor Pat Anderson, State Senator David Hann, former State Representative David Haas, as well as long-shot candidates Phil Herwig and Leslie Davis.

Although Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer have alternately fared well in various straw polls conducted throughout the state this year, no doubt name recognition played a significant factor in Coleman being the apparent preference of Republicans at this early stage in the 2010 race in the Rasmussen poll.

And as for Coleman's potential 2010 run?

During his concession speech for the U.S. Senate race on June 30th, Coleman stated he would make an announcement on his plans shortly after the July 4th weekend.

But no announcement came.

After more than three weeks of silence from the Coleman camp, on the evening of July 26th Smart Politics outlined several reasons why it was not in Coleman's interest to announce his 2010 plans at this early stage:

· First, announcing too early would emphasize Coleman's 'career politician' image and smack of desperation coming out of the 2008 contest.
· Secondly, launching a gubernatorial campaign so soon after his Senate bid ended would not be the most prudent way to re-approach donors and kick off a fundraising campaign, after recently asking them to contribute several millions of dollars during his Senate reelection bid and recount efforts.
· Third, with former Congressman Jim Ramstad out of the running, Coleman could bide his time knowing he would be by far the biggest name in the GOP race and have virtually no competition from the left side of the party for the nomination.
· Fourthly, in an effort to shed the 'professional politician' moniker to the greatest extent possible, it was in Coleman's interest to make it seem as if he is being 'recruited' to run for governor. Poll results like Rasmussen's give Coleman just that.

The day after the Smart Politics blog was posted, on July 27th, Coleman's spokesperson said the former Senator would likely wait until March or April 2010 to announce his plans, seemingly following the Smart Politics strategy to a 'T'. (No, Smart Politics does not have a mole in the Coleman camp).

In the meantime, it is clear the announced GOP candidates are not going to be paralyzed by Coleman's mysterious intentions - appearances are ramping up for the Republican hopefuls, as the field begins to narrow (State Senator Mike Jungbauer and State Representative Paul Kohls have dropped out of the race in recent weeks).

Whether or not Coleman will ultimately have 50+ percent of the support of the GOP electorate across the state by the time the Republican primary takes place remains to be seen, but the Rasmussen poll suggests there is little harm in the Senator's wait-and-see strategy for the moment.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Bachmann vs Franken in 2014: A Dream Matchup?
Next post: How Common Is Military Service in the Biographies of Minnesota's U.S. Representatives?

2 Comments


  • It would be awesome to run against Norm Coleman. Could I be so lucky?

  • Too bad this is such a poorly composed poll. It would have been constructive to include all of the declared candidates. Somehow this sounds like a very calculated push-poll designed specifically to get Norm into the race. Who paid for the poll?

    What might be constructive would be a poll of GOP delegates and alternates to determine who is favored in the endorsement race. Unless of course the endorsement of the folks who chop the wood and carry the watter means nothing anymore.

    If any candidate

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

    Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

    Political Crumbs

    Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

    Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


    Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

    Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting