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Election Profile: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District

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Smart Politics is running a series of election profiles of Upper Midwestern congressional races leading up to the November 2nd elections. The series will culminate with Smart Politics' official projections. The ninth profile in the series is Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District.

Candidates:
Democrat: Ron Kind (7-term incumbent)
Republican: Dan Kapanke
Independent Citizen for Constitutional Government: Michael Krsiean

District Geography:
Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District follows the Mississippi and St. Croix River counties from the southern border of the state almost to Lake Superior. It encompasses the counties of: Buffalo, Crawford, Dunn, Eau Claire, Grant, Iowa, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Lafayette, Monroe, Pepin, Pierce, Richland, St. Croix, Trempealeau, Vernon and parts of Clark and Sauk counties.

History:
Kind was elected to represent the 3rd District in 1996 filling the open seat left by eight-term GOP congressman Steven Gunderson. Kind beat his GOP counterpart in that election, James E. Harsdorf, by 4.2 points.

Since then, Kind has capitalized on his incumbency advantage - winning by 43.1 points over Troy A. Brechler in 1998, 27.8 points over Susan Tully in 2000, 29.3 points over Bill Arndt in 2002, 12.9 points over Dale W. Schultz in 2004, 29.7 points over Paul R. Nelson in 2006, and 28.7 points over Paul Stark in 2008.

Kind serves on the House Ways and Means and Natural Resources Committees and, if reelected, would have the most seniority among the state's Democratic delegation, with the retirement of David Obey.

Congressman Kind will face Republican State Senator Dan Kapanke from the Badger State's 32nd Senate District. Kapanka, like Kind, hails from LaCrosse and only narrowly won his 2008 legislative race, defeating Democrat Tara Johnson by just 2.9 points. Kapanke won his Senate seat by 5.1 points in 2004 after a failed 2000 bid.

The race will also include a third party candidate, Michael Krsiean, who is running under the Independent Citizen for Constitutional Government banner. Non major-party candidates have a high watermark of 3.2 percent in the 3rd CD over the last several decades (Libertarian Jeff Zastrow in 2002).

Outlook:
Although Barack Obama carried Wisconsin's 3rd CD by 17 points in 2008, John Kerry won it by just 4 points in 2004, for an overall +4 Partisan Voting Index tilt towards the Democratic Party, making it the 157th most Democratic U.S. House District in the nation. While Ron Kind cannot expect to enjoy the kind of victory margins he's had over the last few cycles during the Democratic waves, if the Party loses his seat on election day they will likely be experiencing losses in the 70+ range.

Previous post: Election Profile: Wisconsin's 2nd Congressional District
Next post: Election Profile: Wisconsin's 4th Congressional District

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Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

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