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Smart Politics Projections: Gubernatorial Races

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Republicans eye 90 year-old mark of 25+ victories

Current partisan split
Democrats: 26
Republicans: 24

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 20
Total Republican seats: 17

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 7
Open Democratic seats: 13
Republican incumbents: 5
Open Republican seats: 12

Analysis
Nail-biters abound in several of the nation's 37 gubernatorial contests, with third-party watchers glued to the elections in Rhode Island and Colorado.

But 2010 is all about the GOP, with its gubernatorial candidates having a strong chance of winning 25 or 26 races - the most wins by the Party in 90 years since Republicans won 29 governorships in 1920.

When all is said and done, Republicans may have control of twice the number of governor's offices across the country as Democrats.

Projections
Alabama. Robert Bentley (GOP hold)
Alaska. Sean Parnell (GOP hold)
Arizona. Jan Brewer (GOP hold)
Arkansas. Mike Beebe (Democratic hold)
California. Jerry Brown (Democratic pick-up)
Colorado. John Hickenlooper (Democratic hold)
Connecticut. Tom Foley (GOP hold)
Florida. Rick Scott (GOP hold)
Georgia. Nathan Deal (GOP hold)
Hawaii. Neil Abercrombie (Democratic pick-up)
Idaho. Butch Otter (GOP hold)
Illinois. Bill Brady (GOP pick-up)
Iowa. Terry Branstad (GOP pick-up)
Kansas. Sam Brownback (GOP pick-up)
Maine. Paul LePage (GOP pick-up)
Maryland. Martin O'Malley (Democratic hold)
Massachusetts. Deval Patrick (Democratic hold)
Michigan. Rick Snyder (GOP pick-up)
Minnesota. Tom Emmer (GOP hold)
Nebraska. Dave Heineman (GOP hold)
Nevada. Brian Sandoval (GOP hold)
New Hampshire. John Lynch (Democratic hold)
New Mexico. Susana Martinez (GOP pick-up)
New York. Andrew Cuomo (Democratic hold)
Ohio. John Kasich (GOP pick-up)
Oklahoma. Mary Fallin (GOP pick-up)
Oregon. John Kitzhaber (Democratic hold)
Pennsylvania. Tom Corbett (GOP pick-up)
Rhode Island. Lincoln Chafee (Independent pick-up)
South Carolina. Nikki Haley (GOP hold)
South Dakota. Dennis Daugaard (GOP hold)
Tennessee. Bill Haslam (GOP pick-up)
Texas. Rick Perry (GOP hold)
Utah. Gary Herbert (GOP hold)
Vermont. Peter Shumlin (Democratic pick-up)
Wisconsin. Scott Walker (GOP pick-up)
Wyoming. Matt Mead (GOP pick-up)

Wins: GOP = 26, Democrats = 10, Independents = 1
Pick-ups: GOP +12, Democrats +3, Independents +1

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Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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