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Smart Politics Projections: Gubernatorial Races

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Republicans eye 90 year-old mark of 25+ victories

Current partisan split
Democrats: 26
Republicans: 24

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 20
Total Republican seats: 17

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 7
Open Democratic seats: 13
Republican incumbents: 5
Open Republican seats: 12

Analysis
Nail-biters abound in several of the nation's 37 gubernatorial contests, with third-party watchers glued to the elections in Rhode Island and Colorado.

But 2010 is all about the GOP, with its gubernatorial candidates having a strong chance of winning 25 or 26 races - the most wins by the Party in 90 years since Republicans won 29 governorships in 1920.

When all is said and done, Republicans may have control of twice the number of governor's offices across the country as Democrats.

Projections
Alabama. Robert Bentley (GOP hold)
Alaska. Sean Parnell (GOP hold)
Arizona. Jan Brewer (GOP hold)
Arkansas. Mike Beebe (Democratic hold)
California. Jerry Brown (Democratic pick-up)
Colorado. John Hickenlooper (Democratic hold)
Connecticut. Tom Foley (GOP hold)
Florida. Rick Scott (GOP hold)
Georgia. Nathan Deal (GOP hold)
Hawaii. Neil Abercrombie (Democratic pick-up)
Idaho. Butch Otter (GOP hold)
Illinois. Bill Brady (GOP pick-up)
Iowa. Terry Branstad (GOP pick-up)
Kansas. Sam Brownback (GOP pick-up)
Maine. Paul LePage (GOP pick-up)
Maryland. Martin O'Malley (Democratic hold)
Massachusetts. Deval Patrick (Democratic hold)
Michigan. Rick Snyder (GOP pick-up)
Minnesota. Tom Emmer (GOP hold)
Nebraska. Dave Heineman (GOP hold)
Nevada. Brian Sandoval (GOP hold)
New Hampshire. John Lynch (Democratic hold)
New Mexico. Susana Martinez (GOP pick-up)
New York. Andrew Cuomo (Democratic hold)
Ohio. John Kasich (GOP pick-up)
Oklahoma. Mary Fallin (GOP pick-up)
Oregon. John Kitzhaber (Democratic hold)
Pennsylvania. Tom Corbett (GOP pick-up)
Rhode Island. Lincoln Chafee (Independent pick-up)
South Carolina. Nikki Haley (GOP hold)
South Dakota. Dennis Daugaard (GOP hold)
Tennessee. Bill Haslam (GOP pick-up)
Texas. Rick Perry (GOP hold)
Utah. Gary Herbert (GOP hold)
Vermont. Peter Shumlin (Democratic pick-up)
Wisconsin. Scott Walker (GOP pick-up)
Wyoming. Matt Mead (GOP pick-up)

Wins: GOP = 26, Democrats = 10, Independents = 1
Pick-ups: GOP +12, Democrats +3, Independents +1

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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