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Smart Politics Projections: Iowa U.S. House

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Competitive elections in Democratic districts may not result in ousting of any incumbents

Current delegation partisan split
Democrats: 3
Republicans: 2

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 3
Republican incumbents: 2
Open seats: 0

Analysis
Expected (and substantial) Republican victories up and down the ballot In Iowa's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate contests on one side and in the state legislature on the other, would suggest that one or more of the three Democratic U.S. House seats on the ballot sandwiched in between are vulnerable in 2010.

Despite their vulnerability, there are reasons to suspect Bruce Braley
(IA-01), David Loebsack (IA-02), and perennial GOP target Leonard Boswell (IA-03) all may survive on Election Day.

Braley's and Loebsack's districts probably have enough of a Democratic partisan tilt to see them through, while Boswell has been in this position several times over his previous seven campaigns - always managing to find a way to win.

If one or more of these districts should flip to the Republicans, the somewhat aggressive state legislative shift to the GOP projected by Smart Politics in the State House and State Senate may be on the low end.

Projections
IA-01. Bruce Braley (Democratic hold)
IA-02. David Loebsack (Democratic hold)
IA-03. Leonard Boswell (Democratic hold)
IA-04. Tom Latham (GOP hold)
IA-05. Steve King (GOP hold)

Partisan shift: No change

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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