Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Projections: South Dakota State Senate

Bookmark and Share

Strong Republican presence at top of the ticket to boost GOP advantage in State Senate

Current partisan split
Republican: 21
Democrat: 14

Incumbents
Republican incumbents: 15
Open Republican seats: 6
Democratic incumbents: 6
Open Democratic seats: 8

Unchallenged seats
No Republican on the ballot: 3
No Democrat on the ballot: 10

Analysis
The Democratic Party is yielding nearly 30 percent of the seats in the upper chamber this year, failing to run a candidate in 10 of 35 districts. Democrats narrowly picked up a few GOP seats in 2008 that should return back to the Republicans this cycle (e.g. SD 07, SD 16). Add to that the strong Republican candidates at the top of the ticket for governor and U.S. Senate, and the GOP should be able to pick off a few more seats and take control of all but the bluest of Senate districts in 2010.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +4
Partisan control: GOP hold

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: Iowa State Senate
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting