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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate

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Republicans to take back control of Senate during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Current partisan split
Democrats: 18
Republicans: 15

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 10
Total Republican seats: 7

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 8
Open Democratic seats: 2
Republican incumbents: 5
Open Republican seats: 2

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 2
No Republican on the ballot: 0

Analysis
Seventeen of the Wisconsin Senate's 33 seats are on the ballot in 2010 (the odd-numbered districts), with Democrats and Republicans splitting the 16 seats not up for grabs at 8 each. Republicans only need a net gain of two seats to win the chamber. The prized targets for the Republicans this cycle are the four Democratic incumbents sitting in seats the GOP lost in 2006 (SD 5, SD 21, SD 23, SD 31). Democrats won those four seats by a combined 14.6 points during the last cycle.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +3
Partisan control: GOP takes control

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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