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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Senate

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Republicans to take back control of Senate during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Current partisan split
Democrats: 18
Republicans: 15

On the ballot
Total Democratic seats: 10
Total Republican seats: 7

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 8
Open Democratic seats: 2
Republican incumbents: 5
Open Republican seats: 2

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 2
No Republican on the ballot: 0

Analysis
Seventeen of the Wisconsin Senate's 33 seats are on the ballot in 2010 (the odd-numbered districts), with Democrats and Republicans splitting the 16 seats not up for grabs at 8 each. Republicans only need a net gain of two seats to win the chamber. The prized targets for the Republicans this cycle are the four Democratic incumbents sitting in seats the GOP lost in 2006 (SD 5, SD 21, SD 23, SD 31). Democrats won those four seats by a combined 14.6 points during the last cycle.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +3
Partisan control: GOP takes control

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Remains of the Data

Who Has Won the Most Votes in US Senate Electoral History?

Only three of the Top 10 and nine of the Top 50 vote-getters of all time are currently serving in the chamber.

Political Crumbs

Six for Thirteen

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.


Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


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