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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly

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Republicans look to take back control of Assembly during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Current partisan split
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 46
Independents: 1
Vacant: 1

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 43
Open Democratic seats: 8
Republican incumbents: 35
Open Republican seats: 11
Independent incumbents: 1

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 17
No Republican on the ballot: 15

Analysis
Democratic control of the State Assembly will likely prove to be short-lived after Tuesday's elections. Republicans, who gained control of the Assembly during the Republican Revolution of 1994, had maintained power for seven consecutive election cycles before the Democrats picked up the lower legislative chamber in 2008, after solid gains in the 2006 and 2008 cycles.

The GOP will rival and perhaps best their half-century long mark of a seven seat net change from the 1982 to the 1984 elections, and could even flirt with a double-digit swing, given the enthusiasm for the Party at the top of the ticket in the Badger State's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +9
Partisan control: GOP takes control

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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