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Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin State Assembly

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Republicans look to take back control of Assembly during GOP wave in Wisconsin

Current partisan split
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 46
Independents: 1
Vacant: 1

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 43
Open Democratic seats: 8
Republican incumbents: 35
Open Republican seats: 11
Independent incumbents: 1

Unchallenged seats
No Democrat on the ballot: 17
No Republican on the ballot: 15

Analysis
Democratic control of the State Assembly will likely prove to be short-lived after Tuesday's elections. Republicans, who gained control of the Assembly during the Republican Revolution of 1994, had maintained power for seven consecutive election cycles before the Democrats picked up the lower legislative chamber in 2008, after solid gains in the 2006 and 2008 cycles.

The GOP will rival and perhaps best their half-century long mark of a seven seat net change from the 1982 to the 1984 elections, and could even flirt with a double-digit swing, given the enthusiasm for the Party at the top of the ticket in the Badger State's gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.

Projection
Partisan shift: GOP +9
Partisan control: GOP takes control

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Remains of the Data

Strange Bedfellows: A Historical Review of Divided US Senate Delegations

Over the last century, states have been twice as likely to be represented by a single political party in the U.S. Senate than have a split delegation; only Delaware, Iowa, and Illinois have been divided more than half the time.

Political Crumbs

Haugh to Reach New Heights

The North Carolina U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis may go down to the wire next Tuesday, but along the way Libertarian nominee Sean Haugh is poised to set a state record for a non-major party candidate. Haugh, who previously won 1.5 percent of the vote in the Tar Heel State's 2002 race, has polled at or above five percent in 10 of the last 12 polls that included his name. The current high water mark for a third party or independent candidate in a North Carolina U.S. Senate election is just 3.3 percent, recorded by Libertarian Robert Emory back in 1992. Only one other candidate has eclipsed the three percent mark - Libertarian Christopher Cole with 3.1 percent in 2008.


Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


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