Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Smart Politics Projections: Wisconsin U.S. House

Bookmark and Share

Republicans eye first two-seat U.S. House pick up in Badger State since 1966 GOP wave

Current delegation partisan split
Democrats: 5
Republicans: 3

Incumbents
Democratic incumbents: 4
Open Democratic seats: 1 (WI-07)
Republican incumbents: 3
Open Republican seats: 0

Analysis
Republican momentum at the top of the ticket in the Badger State will tighten all five of Wisconsin's U.S. House districts currently held by the Democratic Party, although only three of which will be 'in play.'

Democrat Steve Kagen (WI-08) is in the most danger, as the two-term incumbent faced extremely competitive races in this GOP-leaning district during the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008.

If Kagen's challenger Reid Ribble prevails, and Republican Sean Duffy wins David Obey's open seat (WI-07), Republicans will have their first net two-seat gain in Wisconsin since 1966, when Democrats Henry Schadeberg and John Race were defeated during that year's GOP landslide (and when the Wisconsin delegation was comprised of 10 members).

However, because it is unlikely the GOP will be commanding majorities of a Tommy Thompson-like percentage at the top of the ticket, seven-term incumbent Ron Kind (WI-03) should be in the clear.

Projections
WI-01. Paul Ryan (GOP hold)
WI-02. Tammy Baldwin (Democratic hold)
WI-03. Ron Kind (Democratic hold)
WI-04. Gwen Moore (Democratic hold)
WI-05. Jim Sensenbrenner (GOP hold)
WI-06. Tom Petri (GOP hold)
WI-07. Sean Duffy (GOP pick-up)
WI-08. Reid Ribble (GOP pick-up)

Partisan shift: GOP +2

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Smart Politics Projections: Minnesota State House
Next post: Smart Politics Projections: Iowa U.S. House

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting