Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Pawlenty's Exit is Quickest in History Among 3rd Place Iowa Straw Poll Candidates

Bookmark and Share

The swiftest previous departure from the presidential race for a third-place finisher at Ames was 67 days after the Straw Poll

timpawlenty10.jpgTim Pawlenty's exit from the GOP presidential field Sunday morning was a swift - though not surprising - departure from a race that demonstrates how the Ames Straw Poll is more an expectations game and less about how many candidates one defeats per se.

While other candidates have withdrawn from the GOP nomination the day after Ames (e.g. Tommy Thompson in 2007) Pawlenty is by far the quickest to pull the trigger on his campaign among third place finishers in the history of the Straw Poll.

In 1999, Elizabeth Dole departed the Republican field 67 days after Ames on October 20th that autumn, on the heels of a Pawlenty-like 14.4 percent showing at the Straw Poll.

Dole, like Pawlenty, had invested heavily in Iowa in advance of the poll in hopes of gaining momentum coming out of the weekend.

In 2007, then Kansas Senator Sam Brownback ended his campaign on October 19th, or 69 days after the Straw Poll. Brownback had recorded 15.3 percent of the vote in his third place finish that year.

In 1979, two straw polls were conducted - one by the Des Moines Register in late spring and one by the Iowa Daily Press Association that fall.

Kansas Senator Bob Dole placed third in the October 1979 Straw Poll with 14.8 percent - an improvement on his 3.1 percent showing earlier that May - but only good enough to sustain his campaign another 153 days. Dole exited the race on March 15, 1980.

Tennessee Senator Howard Baker placed third in the May straw poll with 13.8 percent (and later fifth in October's poll), but remained in the race until March 6th of 1980, or 290 days after his Top 3 finish.

In 1995, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan placed third with 17.5 percent of the vote at Ames, and did not exit the race until nearly one year later on August 15, 1996 when he released his delegates on the last day of the Republican convention, or a span of 362 days.

Buchanan famously remained in the race despite winning only the New Hampshire primary and a few state caucuses in order to pressure the Dole campaign to select a pro-life running mate for the vice-presidential slot on that cycle's ticket.

The Straw Poll's other third place finisher was George H.W. Bush who won 22.5 percent of the vote in 1987.

Bush, of course, never dropped out of the race as he eventually won the nomination and presidency the next year.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: How Many GOP Presidential Candidates Will Drop Out Before the Iowa Caucuses?
Next post: Pawlenty Defeats Klobuchar? Don't Hold Your Breath

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting