Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Pawlenty's Exit is Quickest in History Among 3rd Place Iowa Straw Poll Candidates

Bookmark and Share

The swiftest previous departure from the presidential race for a third-place finisher at Ames was 67 days after the Straw Poll

timpawlenty10.jpgTim Pawlenty's exit from the GOP presidential field Sunday morning was a swift - though not surprising - departure from a race that demonstrates how the Ames Straw Poll is more an expectations game and less about how many candidates one defeats per se.

While other candidates have withdrawn from the GOP nomination the day after Ames (e.g. Tommy Thompson in 2007) Pawlenty is by far the quickest to pull the trigger on his campaign among third place finishers in the history of the Straw Poll.

In 1999, Elizabeth Dole departed the Republican field 67 days after Ames on October 20th that autumn, on the heels of a Pawlenty-like 14.4 percent showing at the Straw Poll.

Dole, like Pawlenty, had invested heavily in Iowa in advance of the poll in hopes of gaining momentum coming out of the weekend.

In 2007, then Kansas Senator Sam Brownback ended his campaign on October 19th, or 69 days after the Straw Poll. Brownback had recorded 15.3 percent of the vote in his third place finish that year.

In 1979, two straw polls were conducted - one by the Des Moines Register in late spring and one by the Iowa Daily Press Association that fall.

Kansas Senator Bob Dole placed third in the October 1979 Straw Poll with 14.8 percent - an improvement on his 3.1 percent showing earlier that May - but only good enough to sustain his campaign another 153 days. Dole exited the race on March 15, 1980.

Tennessee Senator Howard Baker placed third in the May straw poll with 13.8 percent (and later fifth in October's poll), but remained in the race until March 6th of 1980, or 290 days after his Top 3 finish.

In 1995, conservative commentator Pat Buchanan placed third with 17.5 percent of the vote at Ames, and did not exit the race until nearly one year later on August 15, 1996 when he released his delegates on the last day of the Republican convention, or a span of 362 days.

Buchanan famously remained in the race despite winning only the New Hampshire primary and a few state caucuses in order to pressure the Dole campaign to select a pro-life running mate for the vice-presidential slot on that cycle's ticket.

The Straw Poll's other third place finisher was George H.W. Bush who won 22.5 percent of the vote in 1987.

Bush, of course, never dropped out of the race as he eventually won the nomination and presidency the next year.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: How Many GOP Presidential Candidates Will Drop Out Before the Iowa Caucuses?
Next post: Pawlenty Defeats Klobuchar? Don't Hold Your Breath

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting