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Tables Turned: GOP Field Outraising Obama in Several Battleground States

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Republican candidates are raising more large donor money than Obama in 11 states won by the President in 2008; Obama outraised the GOP field in eight of these states that cycle

barackobama05.jpgIf the eventual Republican presidential nominee is going to win the White House in 2012, that candidate will need to flip several states Barack Obama carried in the 2008 contest against John McCain.

Early fundraising for the GOP field signals that the Republican Party has already made inroads in several of these states - notching more contributions than the president in large donor money in nearly a dozen of them.

A Smart Politics analysis of FEC data finds Republican presidential candidates have raised more large donor money ($200 or greater per individual) than Barack Obama in 11 states won by the President in 2008.

Almost all of these states will be considered battlegrounds next November: Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.

Overall, Obama received $116 million from these 11 states he carried in the '08 cycle compared to $100 million for the entire Republican field, and raised more money than the Republicans in eight of them: Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

In the current cycle, the GOP field has nearly doubled up on the president in these 11 states, raising $14.7 million compared to just $7.4 million for Obama.

Nevada, which has the largest unemployment rate in the nation at north of 13 percent, currently has the largest per capita discrepancy in favor of the GOP candidates among these 2008 'Obama states.'

The 2012 Republican field has raised $278.56 per 1,000 residents collectively in Nevada compared to just $57.57 for Obama, or a difference of $220.99 per 1,000 residents.

Next is Connecticut with a +$204 net fundraising advantage per 1,000 residents for the Republicans, followed by Minnesota ($179), Florida ($139), New Hampshire ($135), Colorado ($99), Michigan ($64), Virginia ($47), Ohio ($45), Iowa ($18), and Indiana ($16).

Obama has tallied more large donor fundraising than the Republicans in just 18 states plus the District of Columbia.

In D.C., Obama has received $4,870 more per 1,000 residents than the Republican field, followed by Vermont (by $523 per 1,000 residents), Maine ($299), Maryland ($138), Washington ($109), Illinois ($98), Delaware ($79), California ($66), Rhode Island ($59), Massachusetts ($58), Hawaii ($52), New York ($46), New Mexico ($17), Wisconsin ($14), Oregon ($13), North Carolina ($10), New Jersey ($7), Montana ($4), and Pennsylvania ($3).

Montana is the only state carried by John McCain in 2008 in which Obama is currently receiving a greater amount of large donor money per capita than the Republican field.

Republican inroads can also be seen in that "Obama states" make up 12 of the Top 20 spots for large donor per capita giving in the GOP presidential field, whereas no state won by John McCain appears on the president's Top 20 per capita list in giving to his reelection campaign.

The District of Columbia leads the pack for Obama - giving $5,654 per 1,000 residents in the election cycle thus far to the president, or approximately 7.2 times the amount given to the nearly dozen Republicans who have campaigned for his job this cycle (at $784 per capita).

After D.C., Obama's fundraising stronghold is a long string of 19 states he won in 2008: Vermont (at $599 per 1,000 residents), Massachusetts ($433), Maine ($365), Maryland ($305), New York ($302), California ($270), Illinois ($227), Connecticut ($217), Washington ($208), Rhode Island ($187), New Hampshire ($172), Virginia ($163), New Jersey ($138), Delaware ($136), New Mexico ($122), Hawaii ($121), Pennsylvania ($120), Colorado ($120), and Florida ($111).

These 20 states are responsible for over 78 percent of the total large donor fundraising to Obama thus far.

The top McCain state in per capita large donor contributions to the Obama campaign is Wyoming at #21 - giving $107 per 1,000 residents to his reelection, followed by Alaska at #22 ($105), Texas at #23 ($105), Montana at #25 ($99), and Utah at #26 ($94).

Large Donor Individual Contributions to Barack Obama through Q3 2011 (Per 1,000 Residents)

Rank
State
2008
Raised
Per 1,000
1
D.C.
Obama
$3,402,641
$5,654.83
2
Vermont
Obama
$375,075
$599.41
3
Massachusetts
Obama
$2,836,816
$433.26
4
Maine
Obama
$486,027
$365.88
5
Maryland
Obama
$1,764,374
$305.60
6
New York
Obama
$5,867,974
$302.81
7
California
Obama
$10,077,753
$270.51
8
Illinois
Obama
$2,920,779
$227.64
9
Connecticut
Obama
$775,807
$217.06
10
Washington
Obama
$1,401,796
$208.46
11
Rhode Island
Obama
$197,650
$187.78
12
New Hampshire
Obama
$227,594
$172.88
13
Virginia
Obama
$1,308,792
$163.58
14
New Jersey
Obama
$1,219,329
$138.69
15
Delaware
Obama
$122,340
$136.25
16
New Mexico
Obama
$252,417
$122.58
17
Hawaii
Obama
$165,753
$121.85
18
Pennsylvania
Obama
$1,533,084
$120.69
19
Colorado
Obama
$606,376
$120.57
20
Florida
Obama
$2,092,144
$111.28
21
Wyoming
McCain
$60,723
$107.74
22
Alaska
McCain
$75,278
$105.99
23
Texas
McCain
$2,661,676
$105.85
24
Oregon
Obama
$387,458
$101.14
25
Montana
McCain
$98,386
$99.44
26
Utah
McCain
$261,519
$94.62
27
Missouri
McCain
$506,180
$84.52
28
Minnesota
Obama
$448,215
$84.51
29
Georgia
McCain
$705,050
$72.78
30
Michigan
Obama
$718,519
$72.70
31
North Carolina
Obama
$681,270
$71.45
32
Oklahoma
McCain
$248,915
$66.35
33
Wisconsin
Obama
$377,261
$66.34
34
Iowa
Obama
$198,645
$65.21
35
Arizona
McCain
$394,782
$61.76
36
Nevada
Obama
$155,468
$57.57
37
South Carolina
McCain
$238,291
$51.52
38
Ohio
Obama
$567,492
$49.19
39
Indiana
Obama
$292,845
$45.17
40
Tennessee
McCain
$270,139
$42.57
41
Kentucky
McCain
$182,760
$42.12
42
Kansas
McCain
$116,924
$40.98
43
Nebraska
McCain
$66,785
$36.57
44
Alabama
McCain
$163,999
$34.31
45
South Dakota
McCain
$25,804
$31.69
46
Idaho
McCain
$49,516
$31.59
47
Arkansas
McCain
$87,073
$29.86
48
Louisiana
McCain
$125,977
$27.79
49
West Virginia
McCain
$50,595
$27.30
50
North Dakota
McCain
$17,493
$26.01
51
Mississippi
McCain
$52,687
$17.76
Table compiled by Smart Politics with FEC data.

The GOP field, by contrast, has been heavily reliant on 'Obama state' money filling its campaign coffers.

Utah - regarded as perhaps the most conservative state in the union - sets the pace with $828 in large donor money given per 1,000 residents.

After D.C. at #2, comes Texas at #3 ($547 per 1,000), home to two GOP candidates vying for the White House in Governor Rick Perry and U.S. Representative Ron Paul.

A series of states carried by Obama in 2008 peppers the remainder of the Top 20 GOP funding list with Connecticut at #4 ($421 per 1,000), Massachusetts at #6 ($375), New Hampshire at #7 ($308), Nevada at #8 ($278), Minnesota at #10 ($263), New York at #11 ($256), Florida at #12 ($250), Colorado at #13 ($220), Virginia at #15 ($210), California at #16 ($204), and Maryland at #20 ($167).

Large Donor Individual Contributions to Republican Presidential Candidates through Q3 2011 (Per 1,000 Residents)

Rank
State
2008
Raised
Per 1,000
1
Utah
McCain
$2,290,147
$828.60
2
D.C.
Obama
$471,825
$784.12
3
Texas
McCain
$13,770,817
$547.64
4
Connecticut
Obama
$1,508,117
$421.96
5
Wyoming
McCain
$232,276
$412.11
6
Massachusetts
Obama
$2,455,571
$375.03
7
New Hampshire
Obama
$405,599
$308.10
8
Nevada
Obama
$752,274
$278.56
9
Idaho
McCain
$415,976
$265.36
10
Minnesota
Obama
$1,399,724
$263.90
11
New York
Obama
$4,972,202
$256.59
12
Florida
Obama
$4,705,777
$250.29
13
Colorado
Obama
$1,106,404
$220.00
14
Louisiana
McCain
$990,403
$218.47
15
Virginia
Obama
$1,685,915
$210.71
16
California
Obama
$7,616,340
$204.44
17
Arizona
McCain
$1,263,297
$197.64
18
Georgia
McCain
$1,904,817
$196.62
19
Oklahoma
McCain
$684,366
$182.43
20
Maryland
Obama
$964,550
$167.06
21
Tennessee
McCain
$984,832
$155.19
22
Missouri
McCain
$911,614
$152.22
23
Michigan
Obama
$1,359,097
$137.51
24
New Jersey
Obama
$1,152,010
$131.03
25
Alaska
McCain
$92,747
$130.59
26
Illinois
Obama
$1,657,983
$129.22
27
Rhode Island
Obama
$134,977
$128.24
28
West Virginia
McCain
$229,820
$124.03
29
Pennsylvania
Obama
$1,489,528
$117.26
30
South Dakota
McCain
$90,336
$110.95
31
New Mexico
Obama
$217,097
$105.43
32
Washington
Obama
$665,961
$99.03
33
Montana
McCain
$94,279
$95.29
34
Ohio
Obama
$1,087,004
$94.22
35
Oregon
Obama
$333,856
$87.14
36
Alabama
McCain
$404,586
$84.65
37
Iowa
Obama
$255,659
$83.92
38
Kansas
McCain
$236,401
$82.86
39
South Carolina
McCain
$382,902
$82.78
40
Nebraska
McCain
$150,171
$82.23
41
Vermont
Obama
$47,714
$76.25
42
Hawaii
Obama
$93,842
$68.99
43
Maine
Obama
$88,182
$66.38
44
Indiana
Obama
$401,993
$62.00
45
North Carolina
Obama
$579,668
$60.79
46
North Dakota
McCain
$39,668
$58.98
47
Delaware
Obama
$50,975
$56.77
48
Wisconsin
Obama
$295,247
$51.92
49
Mississippi
McCain
$152,008
$51.23
50
Kentucky
McCain
$189,939
$43.77
51
Arkansas
McCain
$125,277
$42.96
Table compiled by Smart Politics with FEC data.

Overall, Republicans are receiving nearly as much large donor money from Obama states ($37.95 million, or $178.48 per 1,000 residents) as the president himself ($41.46 million, or $194.97 per 1,000).

By contrast, Republicans have amassed nearly 4 times as much large donor money from states carried by John McCain ($25,636,679, or $266.81 per 1,000 residents) as Obama (just $6,460,552, or $67.24 per 1,000).

Large Donor Individual Contributions to Obama and 2012 Republican Field by State's 2008 Presidential Vote

Party
Obama states
Per 1,000
McCain states
Per 1,000
Republicans
$37,955,091
$178.48
$25,636,679
$266.81
Obama
$41,461,694
$194.97
$6,460,552
$67.24
Table compiled by Smart Politics with FEC data.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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