Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


O Canada: Ron Paul Excels in Northern Border States

Bookmark and Share

The vote for Paul is nearly double in states bordering Canada compared to the rest of the nation for both caucuses and primaries during the 2008 and 2012 election cycles

ronpaul10.jpgAt times - particularly highlighted during the Republican debates - Ron Paul must feel alone in the wilderness.

The Texas Congressman has frequently been the lone wolf in the GOP field calling for a series of dramatic foreign and domestic policy reforms - such as a $1 trillion slashing of the federal budget, ending foreign entanglements, and closing most U.S. military bases around the world.

While Paul's close second place finish in the Maine caucuses on Saturday was disappointing for the campaign as it seeks to notch its first official win, the results underscore a clear pattern that has emerged since his first GOP White House bid four years ago.

The congressman representing one of the most southern U.S. House districts in the nation excels on the northern border.

A Smart Politics review of the 61 Republican state primaries and caucuses conducted during the 2008 and 2012 presidential election cycles finds that Ron Paul receives a 135 percent higher vote percentage in states bordering Canada (16.9 percent) than the rest of the country (7.2 percent).

A total of 13 states border Canada by land or water (or both): Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Over the last four years, these states have thus far held 18 contests during the GOP presidential nomination phase - 15 in 2008 and three in 2012.

Of course, a disproportionate number of these contests have been caucuses - eight of 18 - where Paul has been to known to perform particularly well. (Only seven of the 43 other contests in the remaining 37 states since 2008 have been caucuses).

Overall, Paul has averaged precisely double the vote across the 15 caucuses held since 2008 (16.2 percent) as compared to the 46 primaries (8.1 percent).

However, the vote for Paul in caucus contests has also been nearly double in states bordering Canada (21.1 percent) as compared to those states not bordering the nation's neighbor to the north (10.7 percent).

In other words, Paul performs 97.2 percent better in caucus states along the Canadian border than in caucus states elsewhere (+10.4 points).

Paul's worst performance in a Canadian border state caucus was his 15.7 percent showing in Minnesota in 2008.

He has also tallied 17.3 percent in Alaska (2008), 18.4 percent in Maine (2008), 21.3 percent in North Dakota (2008), 21.6 percent in Washington (2008), 24.5 percent in Montana (2008), 27.1 percent in Minnesota (2012), and 35.7 percent in Maine (2012).

Meanwhile, the congressman has eclipsed the 20 percent mark only once in the seven non-Canadian border state caucus contests - his 21.4 percent third place showing in Iowa this year.

Paul's other showings include 18.7 percent and 13.7 percent in Nevada (2012, 2008), 11.2 percent in Kansas (2008), 10.0 percent in Iowa (2008), and 0 percent in West Virginia (2008) and Wyoming (2008).

Likewise, Representative Paul has turned in nearly twice as strong a performance in primary states bordering Canada than those not on the border.

Paul has averaged 12.3 percent of the vote across the 10 primaries held in northern border states since 2008 compared to just 6.5 percent across the 37 primaries conducted in states that do not border Canada.

That amounts to an 89.2 percent increase in the vote for Paul in primaries held in states along the Canadian border (+5.8 points).

The congressman has eclipsed the 15 percent mark four times out of 10 primaries in Canadian border states: 23.7 percent in Idaho (2008), 22.9 percent in New Hampshire (2012), 21.5 percent in Montana (2008), and 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania (2008).

Meanwhile, Paul has reached the 15 percent mark just once out of 37 primaries in non-northern border states - notching 16.5 percent in South Dakota in 2008.

Perhaps the rugged, independent, and often geographically isolated electorate in many of these northern border states finds kinship with a candidate who often finds himself alone in the wilderness in his own party.

Boost for Ron Paul in States Along the Canadian Border by Contest Type, 2008-2012

Location
Contest type
#
Percent
Canadian border
Caucus
8
21.1
Non-border
Caucus
7
10.7
Difference
Caucus
+10.4 points
Canadian border
Primary
10
12.3
Non-border
Primary
36
6.5
Difference
Primary
+5.8 points
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Snowflakes and Fingerprints: No Two Media GOP Delegate Counts Are Alike
Next post: Kucinich Flirtation with Washington Yields Modest Fundraising Boost from Evergreen State

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Small Club in St. Paul

Mark Dayton is one of just three Minnesotans ever elected to three different statewide offices. Dayton, of course, had previously served as State Auditor (1991-1995) and U.S. Senator (2001-2007) before winning the governorship in 2010. At that time, he joined Republicans Edward Thye and J.A.A. Burnquist on this very short list. Burnquist was elected governor in 1914 but then became governor after the death of Democrat Winfield Hammond in 1915. He then won the gubernatorial elections of 1916 and 1918 and eight terms as attorney general two decades later (1939-1955). Thye was similarly first elected lieutenant governor of the Gopher State and became governor after the resignation of fellow GOPer Harold Stasson in 1943. Thye won one additional full term as governor in 1944 and then two terms to the U.S. Senate (1947-1959). Twenty Minnesotans have been elected to two different statewide offices.


Respect Your Elders?

With retirement announcements this year by veteran U.S. Representatives such as 30-term Democrat John Dingell of Michigan, 20-term Democrat George Miller of California, and 18-term Republican Tom Petri of Wisconsin, it is no surprise that retirees from the 113th Congress are one of the most experienced cohorts in recent decades. Overall, these 24 exiting members of the House have served an average of 11.0 terms - the second longest tenure among retirees across the last 18 cycles since 1980. Only the U.S. Representatives retiring in 2006 had more experience, averaging 11.9 terms. (In that cycle, 10 of the 11 retiring members served at least 10 terms, with GOPer Bill Jenkins of Tennessee the lone exception at just five). Even without the aforementioned Dingell, the average length of service in the chamber of the remaining 23 retirees in 2014 is 10.2 terms - which would still be the third highest since 1980 behind the 2006 and 2012 (10.5 terms) cycles.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting