Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


O Canada: Ron Paul Excels in Northern Border States

Bookmark and Share

The vote for Paul is nearly double in states bordering Canada compared to the rest of the nation for both caucuses and primaries during the 2008 and 2012 election cycles

ronpaul10.jpgAt times - particularly highlighted during the Republican debates - Ron Paul must feel alone in the wilderness.

The Texas Congressman has frequently been the lone wolf in the GOP field calling for a series of dramatic foreign and domestic policy reforms - such as a $1 trillion slashing of the federal budget, ending foreign entanglements, and closing most U.S. military bases around the world.

While Paul's close second place finish in the Maine caucuses on Saturday was disappointing for the campaign as it seeks to notch its first official win, the results underscore a clear pattern that has emerged since his first GOP White House bid four years ago.

The congressman representing one of the most southern U.S. House districts in the nation excels on the northern border.

A Smart Politics review of the 61 Republican state primaries and caucuses conducted during the 2008 and 2012 presidential election cycles finds that Ron Paul receives a 135 percent higher vote percentage in states bordering Canada (16.9 percent) than the rest of the country (7.2 percent).

A total of 13 states border Canada by land or water (or both): Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Over the last four years, these states have thus far held 18 contests during the GOP presidential nomination phase - 15 in 2008 and three in 2012.

Of course, a disproportionate number of these contests have been caucuses - eight of 18 - where Paul has been to known to perform particularly well. (Only seven of the 43 other contests in the remaining 37 states since 2008 have been caucuses).

Overall, Paul has averaged precisely double the vote across the 15 caucuses held since 2008 (16.2 percent) as compared to the 46 primaries (8.1 percent).

However, the vote for Paul in caucus contests has also been nearly double in states bordering Canada (21.1 percent) as compared to those states not bordering the nation's neighbor to the north (10.7 percent).

In other words, Paul performs 97.2 percent better in caucus states along the Canadian border than in caucus states elsewhere (+10.4 points).

Paul's worst performance in a Canadian border state caucus was his 15.7 percent showing in Minnesota in 2008.

He has also tallied 17.3 percent in Alaska (2008), 18.4 percent in Maine (2008), 21.3 percent in North Dakota (2008), 21.6 percent in Washington (2008), 24.5 percent in Montana (2008), 27.1 percent in Minnesota (2012), and 35.7 percent in Maine (2012).

Meanwhile, the congressman has eclipsed the 20 percent mark only once in the seven non-Canadian border state caucus contests - his 21.4 percent third place showing in Iowa this year.

Paul's other showings include 18.7 percent and 13.7 percent in Nevada (2012, 2008), 11.2 percent in Kansas (2008), 10.0 percent in Iowa (2008), and 0 percent in West Virginia (2008) and Wyoming (2008).

Likewise, Representative Paul has turned in nearly twice as strong a performance in primary states bordering Canada than those not on the border.

Paul has averaged 12.3 percent of the vote across the 10 primaries held in northern border states since 2008 compared to just 6.5 percent across the 37 primaries conducted in states that do not border Canada.

That amounts to an 89.2 percent increase in the vote for Paul in primaries held in states along the Canadian border (+5.8 points).

The congressman has eclipsed the 15 percent mark four times out of 10 primaries in Canadian border states: 23.7 percent in Idaho (2008), 22.9 percent in New Hampshire (2012), 21.5 percent in Montana (2008), and 15.5 percent in Pennsylvania (2008).

Meanwhile, Paul has reached the 15 percent mark just once out of 37 primaries in non-northern border states - notching 16.5 percent in South Dakota in 2008.

Perhaps the rugged, independent, and often geographically isolated electorate in many of these northern border states finds kinship with a candidate who often finds himself alone in the wilderness in his own party.

Boost for Ron Paul in States Along the Canadian Border by Contest Type, 2008-2012

Location
Contest type
#
Percent
Canadian border
Caucus
8
21.1
Non-border
Caucus
7
10.7
Difference
Caucus
+10.4 points
Canadian border
Primary
10
12.3
Non-border
Primary
36
6.5
Difference
Primary
+5.8 points
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Snowflakes and Fingerprints: No Two Media GOP Delegate Counts Are Alike
Next post: Kucinich Flirtation with Washington Yields Modest Fundraising Boost from Evergreen State

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting