Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Minnesota Poised to Set Democratic Presidential Winning Streak for Non-Southern States

Bookmark and Share

A Barack Obama victory in Minnesota in 2012 will give the Gopher State the longest all-time Democratic winning streak in presidential elections outside of the south at 10 in a row

minnesotaseal10.jpgAlthough it is admittedly shaded on the bluish side of purple, Minnesota seems to have fallen off the lists of most analysts for battleground states in the current presidential election cycle.

The historic Republican takeover of both chambers of the state legislature in 2010 as well as knocking off the state's longest ever serving U.S. Representative in Democrat Jim Oberstar, puts the Gopher State in play in 2012, although certainly Democratic favored at the starting line.

Minnesota, of course, holds the longest current streak in the nation for the most consecutive Democratic victories in presidential elections at nine cycles dating back to Jimmy Carter's win in 1976.

And now the state may make history in 2012.

A Smart Politics analysis finds a Barack Obama victory in Minnesota in 2012 would give the Gopher State the longest consecutive Democratic winning streak in presidential elections outside of the south at 10 cycles since the founding of the modern Democratic Party in 1828.

Minnesota is currently tied with Missouri for non-southern states, which also recorded nine consecutive victories for the Democratic Party from 1828 to 1860, voting twice for Andrew Jackson and Martin Van Buren, as well as James Polk, Lewis Cass, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, and Stephen Douglas.

After voting for Republicans Abraham Lincoln in 1864 and Ulysses Grant in 1868, the Show-Me State gave the Democratic Party another eight consecutive wins from 1872 through 1900.

The Top 11 all-time longest periods of consecutive Democratic victories in presidential elections stretch across the nation's southern region, with Georgia notching the longest period of 24 cycles from 1868 to 1960, followed by Arkansas at 23 (1876-1964), Alabama and Mississippi at 18 (1876-1944), Louisiana and South Carolina at 17 (1880-1944), and Texas at 13 (1872-1924).

The Midwest has generally not been receptive to Democratic presidential nominees over long periods of time.

The Democratic Party has failed to record victories in five or more consecutive cycles in only 10 states, with seven of these coming from the 12-state Midwest region:

· North Dakota (1912-1916 & 1932-1936), Kansas (1912-1916 & 1932-1936), and South Dakota (1932-1936) at two in a row.

· Nebraska (1908-1916) and Ohio (1932-1940) at three in a row.

· Indiana (1844-1856) and Iowa (1988-2000) at four in a row.

A total of 16 states are currently in the midst of their longest ever period of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.

Minnesota leads the way at nine straight cycles (1976-2008), followed by Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin with six (1988-2008), and California, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Vermont with five (1992-2008).

Massachusetts and Rhode Island also voted six times in a row for Democratic candidates from 1928-1948 while California (1932-1948), Delaware (1876-1892), and New Jersey (1852-1868; 1876-1892) each had previously voted Democratic in five straight cycles.

Minnesota has voted Democratic in 12 of the last 13 presidential elections dating back to 1960 and 17 of 20 since 1932.

From statehood until 1928, however, the Gopher State voted Republican in 17 of 18 cycles, with Progressive nominee Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 the only deviation during this 68-year span.

Longest Democratic Party Winning Streak in Presidential Elections by State

State
Region
Period
Cycles
Georgia
South
1868-1960
24
Arkansas
South
1876-1964
23
Alabama
South
1876-1944
18
Mississippi
South
1876-1944
18
Louisiana
South
1880-1944
17
South Carolina
South
1880-1944
17
Texas
South
1872-1924
13
North Carolina
South
1876-1924
12
Virginia
South
1876-1924
12
Tennessee
South
1872-1916
12
Florida
South
1880-1924
11
Minnesota
Midwest
1976-2008
9
Missouri
Midwest
1828-1860
9
Kentucky
South
1864-1892
8
Illinois
Midwest
1828-1856
8
Maryland
South
1868-1892
7
Hawaii
West
1988-2008
6
New York
Northeast
1988-2008
6
Oregon
West
1988-2008
6
Washington
West
1988-2008
6
Wisconsin
Midwest
1988-2008
6
Massachusetts
Northeast
1928-1948; 1988-2008
6
Rhode Island
Northeast
1928-1948; 1988-2008
6
West Virginia
South
1932-1952
6
New Hampshire
Northeast
1832-1852
6
Connecticut
Northeast
1992-2008
5
Maine
Northeast
1992-2008
5
Michigan
Midwest
1992-2008
5
Pennsylvania
Northeast
1992-2008
5
Vermont
Northeast
1992-2008
5
California
West
1932-1948; 1992-2008
5
Delaware
South
1876-1892; 1992-2008
5
New Jersey
Northeast
1852-1868; 1876-1892; 1992-2008
5
Arizona
West
1932-1948
5
Idaho
West
1932-1948
5
Montana
West
1932-1948
5
Nevada
West
1932-1948
5
New Mexico
West
1932-1948
5
Oklahoma
South
1932-1948
5
Utah
West
1932-1948
5
Iowa
Midwest
1988-2000
4
Indiana
Midwest
1844-1856
4
Ohio
Midwest
1932-1940
3
Wyoming
West
1932-1940
3
Colorado
West
1908-1916
3
Nebraska
Midwest
1908-1916
3
South Dakota
Midwest
1932-1936
2
Kansas
Midwest
1912-1916; 1932-1936
2
North Dakota
Midwest
1912-1916; 1932-1936
2
Alaska
West
1964
1
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Obama's Home State Muscle
Next post: Leonard Boswell: Playing with House Money in Washington

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting