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Barrett Support Rises in 19 Counties, Falls in 53 Others

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An increase in support in Dane and Milwaukee Counties is not enough for Mayor Barrett to stave off Governor Walker's surge in central and northern Wisconsin

tombarrett11.JPGHe got a modest boost in Wisconsin's Democratic strongholds, but lost too much ground elsewhere.

Although the broadcast media was quick to say Democrat Tom Barrett had underperformed in the state's two most populated counties (Dane and Milwaukee) throughout their election night coverage, by the time all the votes were counted the Milwaukee mayor ended up surpassing his performance in both of these counties from 2010.

Barrett increased his margin of victory over Republican Governor Scott Walker by 3.1 points in Milwaukee County and 1.5 points in Dane County and carried the two with 65.5 percent of the vote overall - up from 64.1 percent two years ago.

But this change was not enough, and far short of the more than 75 percent of the vote
Smart Politics projected Barrett would need to carry the state if he did not perform better throughout the state than he did in 2010.

Dane and Milwaukee County were two of the 19 in which Barrett increased his margin of victory - or decreased his margin of loss - against Walker from their inaugural matchup two Novembers ago.

The problem for Barrett was not simply that Walker gained ground in nearly three times as many counties (53), but also the scale of increase in each.

Barrett's biggest uptick was in Douglas County - which he carried both cycles.

Barrett increased his margin of victory in the county from 16.1 points in 2010 to 29.4 points Tuesday - or an increase of 13.3 points.

But Douglas is the only county in which Barrett secured a double-digit increase vis-à-vis Walker from two years ago.

By contrast, Walker increased his margin of victory by 10 or more points in 15 counties across the state, with the biggest occurring in the sparsely populated Taylor County in the northern third of the state.

In Taylor, Walker enjoyed a 17.1-point increase from his 27.2-point win there in 2010 to 44.3 points in the recall contest.

None of the Top 15 counties with the biggest upticks for Walker came in the southern half of the state.

Walker also scored big gains in Trempealeau (+15.1-point MoV increase), Price (+14.2), Clark (+14.2), Outagamie (+14.1), Buffalo (+13.5), Kewaunee (+13.3), Pepin (+13.0), Door (+12.6), Forest (+12.2), Calumet (+11.0), Oconto (+10.9), Shawano (+10.8), Waupaca (+10.3), and Rusk (+10.1).

By contrast, 13 of the 19 counties in which Barrett saw his stock rise on Tuesday are located in the southern half of the state.

Barrett also increased his margin of victory or decreased his margin of loss vis-à-vis Walker in Racine County (+6.8-point net increase), Dodge (+5.6), Columbia (+5.5), Rock (+5.4), Kenosha (+4.9), La Crosse (+4.3), Sawyer (+3.5), Bayfield (+2.8), Jefferson (+2.2), Saint Croix (+2.2), Juneau (+1.9), Walworth (+1.8), Florence (+1.8), Grant (+1.5), Fond Du Lac (+1.2) and Dunn (+1.2).

Overall, Barrett carried 12 counties (one less than in 2010) including nine in both contests: Ashland, Bayfield, Dane, Douglas, Iowa, Milwaukee, Menominee, Portage, and Rock.

Barrett picked up three counties that he lost in 2010 - Columbia, Kenosha, and La Crosse - but shed four others to Walker: Crawford, Eau Claire, Green, and Trempealeau.

Change in Walker-Barrett Vote Percentage Differential by County, 2010 vs. 2012

County
Barrett '10
Walker '10
Walker MoV '10
Barrett '12
Walker '12
Walker MoV '12
Walker change
Taylor
35.0
62.2
27.2
27.5
71.8
44.3
17.1
Trempealeau
49.2
48.9
-0.3
42.2
57.0
14.8
15.1
Price
45.4
52.2
6.8
39.0
60.0
21.0
14.2
Clark
36.6
60.6
24.0
30.5
68.7
38.2
14.2
Outagamie
44.8
53.9
9.1
38.1
61.3
23.2
14.1
Buffalo
44.6
53.5
8.9
38.4
60.8
22.4
13.5
Kewaunee
41.4
56.7
15.3
35.5
64.1
28.6
13.3
Pepin
45.4
53.1
7.7
39.4
60.1
20.7
13.0
Door
48.4
50.0
1.5
42.7
56.8
14.1
12.6
Forest
46.0
52.6
6.6
40.0
58.8
18.8
12.2
Calumet
38.2
60.3
22.1
33.2
66.3
33.1
11.0
Oconto
39.3
59.4
20.1
34.2
65.2
31.0
10.9
Shawano
38.2
60.3
22.1
33.3
66.2
32.9
10.8
Waupaca
39.5
59.1
19.7
34.7
64.7
30.0
10.3
Rusk
40.2
56.4
16.2
36.3
62.6
26.3
10.1
Marinette
42.1
56.5
14.4
37.6
61.9
24.3
9.9
Menominee
77.9
22.1
-55.9
73.2
26.5
-46.7
9.2
Langlade
37.6
61.2
23.6
33.7
65.6
31.9
8.3
Barron
43.5
54.7
11.2
39.9
59.3
19.4
8.2
Marathon
40.4
57.6
17.1
37.2
62.1
24.9
7.8
Manitowoc
38.8
60.0
21.2
35.2
64.1
28.9
7.7
Lafayette
45.9
52.3
6.4
42.6
56.7
14.1
7.7
Crawford
51.4
46.8
-4.5
48.1
51.1
3.0
7.5
Burnett
41.8
56.9
15.1
38.6
60.8
22.2
7.1
Green Lake
32.4
64.3
31.9
30.4
68.9
38.5
6.6
Washburn
45.0
53.4
8.5
42.1
57.1
15.0
6.5
Brown
42.5
56.1
13.6
39.7
59.7
20.0
6.4
Jackson
47.5
50.6
3.1
45.6
53.6
8.0
4.9
Oneida
42.6
55.3
12.7
41.0
58.1
17.1
4.4
Waushara
38.1
60.1
22.0
36.5
62.9
26.4
4.4
Iron
45.5
53.4
7.9
43.8
55.7
11.9
4.0
Wood
42.5
55.3
12.7
41.2
57.9
16.7
4.0
Green 
49.8
48.5
-1.3
48.5
51.1
2.6
3.9
Adams
46.0
52.3
6.3
44.3
54.5
10.2
3.9
Iowa
54.3
44.2
-10.1
52.9
46.4
-6.5
3.6
Portage
52.3
46.2
-6.0
51.0
48.3
-2.7
3.3
Ozaukee
30.5
68.9
38.4
29.0
70.7
41.7
3.3
Vernon
48.3
49.8
1.5
47.2
52.0
4.8
3.3
Winnebago
44.3
54.0
9.6
43.4
56.0
12.6
3.0
Lincoln
43.0
54.7
11.7
42.3
56.9
14.6
2.9
Chippewa
41.4
56.2
14.9
40.8
58.3
17.5
2.6
Pierce
44.5
53.1
8.6
44.6
55.0
10.4
1.8
Waukesha
28.0
71.5
43.5
27.3
72.4
45.1
1.6
Eau Claire
49.7
48.5
-1.2
49.4
49.8
0.4
1.6
Sheboygan
35.7
63.3
27.6
35.2
64.3
29.1
1.5
Richland
45.9
52.7
6.8
45.5
53.8
8.3
1.5
Ashland
61.6
37.1
-24.5
61.2
38.1
-23.1
1.4
Monroe
39.7
57.8
18.1
39.8
59.2
19.4
1.3
Sauk
48.5
49.8
1.4
48.5
50.9
2.4
1.0
Marquette
39.7
58.1
18.3
40.0
59.3
19.3
1.0
Washington
24.2
75.0
50.8
24.0
75.6
51.6
0.8
Vilas
35.8
62.6
26.8
36.1
63.3
27.2
0.4
Polk
38.6
59.4
20.7
39.2
60.2
21.0
0.3
Dunn
44.0
53.7
9.7
45.4
53.9
8.5
-1.2
Fond Du Lac
34.6
64.3
29.7
35.4
63.9
28.5
-1.2
Grant
45.9
52.2
6.3
47.2
52.0
4.8
-1.5
Dane
68.0
31.0
-37.0
69.0
30.5
-38.5
-1.5
Florence
33.4
65.3
31.9
34.7
64.8
30.1
-1.8
Walworth
33.8
64.7
30.9
35.2
64.3
29.1
-1.8
Jeneau
42.0
56.4
14.3
43.4
55.8
12.4
-1.9
Saint Croix
36.7
61.5
24.8
38.5
61.1
22.6
-2.2
Jefferson
37.8
60.8
23.0
39.2
60.0
20.8
-2.2
Bayfield
57.8
40.9
-16.9
59.5
39.8
-19.7
-2.8
Milwaukee
61.6
37.7
-23.8
63.2
36.3
-26.9
-3.1
Sawyer
40.8
58.0
17.2
42.8
56.5
13.7
-3.5
La Crosse
49.1
49.3
0.3
51.6
47.6
-4.0
-4.3
Kenosha
47.6
51.3
3.7
50.3
49.1
-1.2
-4.9
Rock
52.5
45.6
-6.9
55.8
43.5
-12.3
-5.4
Columbia
46.8
51.7
4.9
50.0
49.4
-0.6
-5.5
Dodge
32.6
66.1
33.5
35.7
63.6
27.9
-5.6
Racine
43.0
56.1
13.0
46.6
52.8
6.2
-6.8
Douglas
57.3
41.2
-16.1
64.4
35.0
-29.4
-13.3
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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Remains of the Data

No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

Political Crumbs

Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


An Idaho Six Pack

Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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