Barrett Support Rises in 19 Counties, Falls in 53 Others

An increase in support in Dane and Milwaukee Counties is not enough for Mayor Barrett to stave off Governor Walker's surge in central and northern Wisconsin

He got a modest boost in Wisconsin's Democratic strongholds, but lost too much ground elsewhere.

Although the broadcast media was quick to say Democrat Tom Barrett had underperformed in the state's two most populated counties (Dane and Milwaukee) throughout their election night coverage, by the time all the votes were counted the Milwaukee mayor ended up surpassing his performance in both of these counties from 2010.

Barrett increased his margin of victory over Republican Governor Scott Walker by 3.1 points in Milwaukee County and 1.5 points in Dane County and carried the two with 65.5 percent of the vote overall - up from 64.1 percent two years ago.

But this change was not enough, and far short of the more than 75 percent of the vote
Smart Politics projected Barrett would need to carry the state if he did not perform better throughout the state than he did in 2010.

Dane and Milwaukee County were two of the 19 in which Barrett increased his margin of victory - or decreased his margin of loss - against Walker from their inaugural matchup two Novembers ago.

The problem for Barrett was not simply that Walker gained ground in nearly three times as many counties (53), but also the scale of increase in each.

Barrett's biggest uptick was in Douglas County - which he carried both cycles.

Barrett increased his margin of victory in the county from 16.1 points in 2010 to 29.4 points Tuesday - or an increase of 13.3 points.

But Douglas is the only county in which Barrett secured a double-digit increase vis-à-vis Walker from two years ago.

By contrast, Walker increased his margin of victory by 10 or more points in 15 counties across the state, with the biggest occurring in the sparsely populated Taylor County in the northern third of the state.

In Taylor, Walker enjoyed a 17.1-point increase from his 27.2-point win there in 2010 to 44.3 points in the recall contest.

None of the Top 15 counties with the biggest upticks for Walker came in the southern half of the state.

Walker also scored big gains in Trempealeau (+15.1-point MoV increase), Price (+14.2), Clark (+14.2), Outagamie (+14.1), Buffalo (+13.5), Kewaunee (+13.3), Pepin (+13.0), Door (+12.6), Forest (+12.2), Calumet (+11.0), Oconto (+10.9), Shawano (+10.8), Waupaca (+10.3), and Rusk (+10.1).

By contrast, 13 of the 19 counties in which Barrett saw his stock rise on Tuesday are located in the southern half of the state.

Barrett also increased his margin of victory or decreased his margin of loss vis-à-vis Walker in Racine County (+6.8-point net increase), Dodge (+5.6), Columbia (+5.5), Rock (+5.4), Kenosha (+4.9), La Crosse (+4.3), Sawyer (+3.5), Bayfield (+2.8), Jefferson (+2.2), Saint Croix (+2.2), Juneau (+1.9), Walworth (+1.8), Florence (+1.8), Grant (+1.5), Fond Du Lac (+1.2) and Dunn (+1.2).

Overall, Barrett carried 12 counties (one less than in 2010) including nine in both contests: Ashland, Bayfield, Dane, Douglas, Iowa, Milwaukee, Menominee, Portage, and Rock.

Barrett picked up three counties that he lost in 2010 - Columbia, Kenosha, and La Crosse - but shed four others to Walker: Crawford, Eau Claire, Green, and Trempealeau.

Change in Walker-Barrett Vote Percentage Differential by County, 2010 vs. 2012

County	Barrett '10	Walker '10	Walker MoV '10	Barrett '12	Walker '12	Walker MoV '12	Walker change
Taylor	35.0	62.2	27.2	27.5	71.8	44.3	17.1
Trempealeau	49.2	48.9	-0.3	42.2	57.0	14.8	15.1
Price	45.4	52.2	6.8	39.0	60.0	21.0	14.2
Clark	36.6	60.6	24.0	30.5	68.7	38.2	14.2
Outagamie	44.8	53.9	9.1	38.1	61.3	23.2	14.1
Buffalo	44.6	53.5	8.9	38.4	60.8	22.4	13.5
Kewaunee	41.4	56.7	15.3	35.5	64.1	28.6	13.3
Pepin	45.4	53.1	7.7	39.4	60.1	20.7	13.0
Door	48.4	50.0	1.5	42.7	56.8	14.1	12.6
Forest	46.0	52.6	6.6	40.0	58.8	18.8	12.2
Calumet	38.2	60.3	22.1	33.2	66.3	33.1	11.0
Oconto	39.3	59.4	20.1	34.2	65.2	31.0	10.9
Shawano	38.2	60.3	22.1	33.3	66.2	32.9	10.8
Waupaca	39.5	59.1	19.7	34.7	64.7	30.0	10.3
Rusk	40.2	56.4	16.2	36.3	62.6	26.3	10.1
Marinette	42.1	56.5	14.4	37.6	61.9	24.3	9.9
Menominee	77.9	22.1	-55.9	73.2	26.5	-46.7	9.2
Langlade	37.6	61.2	23.6	33.7	65.6	31.9	8.3
Barron	43.5	54.7	11.2	39.9	59.3	19.4	8.2
Marathon	40.4	57.6	17.1	37.2	62.1	24.9	7.8
Manitowoc	38.8	60.0	21.2	35.2	64.1	28.9	7.7
Lafayette	45.9	52.3	6.4	42.6	56.7	14.1	7.7
Crawford	51.4	46.8	-4.5	48.1	51.1	3.0	7.5
Burnett	41.8	56.9	15.1	38.6	60.8	22.2	7.1
Green Lake	32.4	64.3	31.9	30.4	68.9	38.5	6.6
Washburn	45.0	53.4	8.5	42.1	57.1	15.0	6.5
Brown	42.5	56.1	13.6	39.7	59.7	20.0	6.4
Jackson	47.5	50.6	3.1	45.6	53.6	8.0	4.9
Oneida	42.6	55.3	12.7	41.0	58.1	17.1	4.4
Waushara	38.1	60.1	22.0	36.5	62.9	26.4	4.4
Iron	45.5	53.4	7.9	43.8	55.7	11.9	4.0
Wood	42.5	55.3	12.7	41.2	57.9	16.7	4.0
Green	49.8	48.5	-1.3	48.5	51.1	2.6	3.9
Adams	46.0	52.3	6.3	44.3	54.5	10.2	3.9
Iowa	54.3	44.2	-10.1	52.9	46.4	-6.5	3.6
Portage	52.3	46.2	-6.0	51.0	48.3	-2.7	3.3
Ozaukee	30.5	68.9	38.4	29.0	70.7	41.7	3.3
Vernon	48.3	49.8	1.5	47.2	52.0	4.8	3.3
Winnebago	44.3	54.0	9.6	43.4	56.0	12.6	3.0
Lincoln	43.0	54.7	11.7	42.3	56.9	14.6	2.9
Chippewa	41.4	56.2	14.9	40.8	58.3	17.5	2.6
Pierce	44.5	53.1	8.6	44.6	55.0	10.4	1.8
Waukesha	28.0	71.5	43.5	27.3	72.4	45.1	1.6
Eau Claire	49.7	48.5	-1.2	49.4	49.8	0.4	1.6
Sheboygan	35.7	63.3	27.6	35.2	64.3	29.1	1.5
Richland	45.9	52.7	6.8	45.5	53.8	8.3	1.5
Ashland	61.6	37.1	-24.5	61.2	38.1	-23.1	1.4
Monroe	39.7	57.8	18.1	39.8	59.2	19.4	1.3
Sauk	48.5	49.8	1.4	48.5	50.9	2.4	1.0
Marquette	39.7	58.1	18.3	40.0	59.3	19.3	1.0
Washington	24.2	75.0	50.8	24.0	75.6	51.6	0.8
Vilas	35.8	62.6	26.8	36.1	63.3	27.2	0.4
Polk	38.6	59.4	20.7	39.2	60.2	21.0	0.3
Dunn	44.0	53.7	9.7	45.4	53.9	8.5	-1.2
Fond Du Lac	34.6	64.3	29.7	35.4	63.9	28.5	-1.2
Grant	45.9	52.2	6.3	47.2	52.0	4.8	-1.5
Dane	68.0	31.0	-37.0	69.0	30.5	-38.5	-1.5
Florence	33.4	65.3	31.9	34.7	64.8	30.1	-1.8
Walworth	33.8	64.7	30.9	35.2	64.3	29.1	-1.8
Jeneau	42.0	56.4	14.3	43.4	55.8	12.4	-1.9
Saint Croix	36.7	61.5	24.8	38.5	61.1	22.6	-2.2
Jefferson	37.8	60.8	23.0	39.2	60.0	20.8	-2.2
Bayfield	57.8	40.9	-16.9	59.5	39.8	-19.7	-2.8
Milwaukee	61.6	37.7	-23.8	63.2	36.3	-26.9	-3.1
Sawyer	40.8	58.0	17.2	42.8	56.5	13.7	-3.5
La Crosse	49.1	49.3	0.3	51.6	47.6	-4.0	-4.3
Kenosha	47.6	51.3	3.7	50.3	49.1	-1.2	-4.9
Rock	52.5	45.6	-6.9	55.8	43.5	-12.3	-5.4
Columbia	46.8	51.7	4.9	50.0	49.4	-0.6	-5.5
Dodge	32.6	66.1	33.5	35.7	63.6	27.9	-5.6
Racine	43.0	56.1	13.0	46.6	52.8	6.2	-6.8
Douglas	57.3	41.2	-16.1	64.4	35.0	-29.4	-13.3