Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Oklahoma GOP Poised to Run Table in US House Races for Just 3rd Time Since Statehood

Bookmark and Share

Democrats won 79 percent of congressional contests in the Sooner State prior to the Republican Revolution and just 14 percent since

danboren10.jpgThe ousting of six-term Republican U.S. Representative John Sullivan in Tuesday's Oklahoma primary by Jim Bridenstine does little to change the fact that the GOP is favored to sweep the state's five House seats this November.

The Democratic Party's lone seat, held by the retiring Dan Boren (pictured) in the 2nd CD, is likely to be lost in the Republican-tilted district where the major party's eventual nominees will face Independent Michael Fulks in a little over four months.

If the GOP picks up the seat for the party, and the other districts remain Republican as expected, Democrats will be shut out of holding any congressional seats in the Sooner State.

And that has been a rare feat in Oklahoma politics.

A Smart Politics review of Oklahoma election data finds that a GOP sweep of the state's U.S. House seats in 2012 would be just the third such occurrence since statehood.

The only two years in which Democrats have been shut out across the 53 election cycles since statehood in 1907 were the Elections of 1996 and 1998.

Republicans won all six seats those cycles before Democrats rebounded with wins by Brad Carlson in 2000 and 2002 and and Dan Boren in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 - both from the 2nd CD.

Like most southern states, the Democratic hold on its U.S. House and Senate seats lasted for decades.

However, the grip loosened about 30 years earlier on the Senate side.

Democrats won 19 of the first 22 U.S. Senate races through 1966, but have claimed just 3 of 19 contests since.

By contrast, the Democratic dominance in House races lasted until the Republican Revolution.

Prior to 1994, the Democrats had won a majority of the state's congressional district races in all but two election cycles: in 1908 (when the GOP won three of five districts) and 1920 (with the GOP victorious in five of eight districts).

From statehood through 1992, Democrats won 247 general and special election House contests while losing only 65 to the Republicans, or 79.2 percent of all races.

Since 1994, Democrats have mustered only seven victories against 43 defeats, or just 14 percent of congressional races.

The 43 wins notched by the GOP over the last 16 years is an about-face for a party that took 55 years to win its first 43 House seats (out of 221 races) from 1907 to 1962.

Overall, Democrats still hold a 254 to 108 seat edge in Oklahoma House contests, winning 70.2 percent of congressional elections since 1907.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Obama vs the Supreme Court: Rhetoric of the 44th President
Next post: What Does Mitt Romney Think About Chief Justice John Roberts?

1 Comment


  • Although I am on the ballot in November, it is far from certain who will represent the parties until after their runoff elections in August. The tactics shown by the leading party candidates so far bodes for a very dirty race. Hopefully they will return to running on the issues for the next 4 months.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

    Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

    Political Crumbs

    Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

    Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


    Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

    Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting