Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Oklahoma GOP Poised to Run Table in US House Races for Just 3rd Time Since Statehood

Bookmark and Share

Democrats won 79 percent of congressional contests in the Sooner State prior to the Republican Revolution and just 14 percent since

danboren10.jpgThe ousting of six-term Republican U.S. Representative John Sullivan in Tuesday's Oklahoma primary by Jim Bridenstine does little to change the fact that the GOP is favored to sweep the state's five House seats this November.

The Democratic Party's lone seat, held by the retiring Dan Boren (pictured) in the 2nd CD, is likely to be lost in the Republican-tilted district where the major party's eventual nominees will face Independent Michael Fulks in a little over four months.

If the GOP picks up the seat for the party, and the other districts remain Republican as expected, Democrats will be shut out of holding any congressional seats in the Sooner State.

And that has been a rare feat in Oklahoma politics.

A Smart Politics review of Oklahoma election data finds that a GOP sweep of the state's U.S. House seats in 2012 would be just the third such occurrence since statehood.

The only two years in which Democrats have been shut out across the 53 election cycles since statehood in 1907 were the Elections of 1996 and 1998.

Republicans won all six seats those cycles before Democrats rebounded with wins by Brad Carlson in 2000 and 2002 and and Dan Boren in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010 - both from the 2nd CD.

Like most southern states, the Democratic hold on its U.S. House and Senate seats lasted for decades.

However, the grip loosened about 30 years earlier on the Senate side.

Democrats won 19 of the first 22 U.S. Senate races through 1966, but have claimed just 3 of 19 contests since.

By contrast, the Democratic dominance in House races lasted until the Republican Revolution.

Prior to 1994, the Democrats had won a majority of the state's congressional district races in all but two election cycles: in 1908 (when the GOP won three of five districts) and 1920 (with the GOP victorious in five of eight districts).

From statehood through 1992, Democrats won 247 general and special election House contests while losing only 65 to the Republicans, or 79.2 percent of all races.

Since 1994, Democrats have mustered only seven victories against 43 defeats, or just 14 percent of congressional races.

The 43 wins notched by the GOP over the last 16 years is an about-face for a party that took 55 years to win its first 43 House seats (out of 221 races) from 1907 to 1962.

Overall, Democrats still hold a 254 to 108 seat edge in Oklahoma House contests, winning 70.2 percent of congressional elections since 1907.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Obama vs the Supreme Court: Rhetoric of the 44th President
Next post: What Does Mitt Romney Think About Chief Justice John Roberts?

1 Comment


  • Although I am on the ballot in November, it is far from certain who will represent the parties until after their runoff elections in August. The tactics shown by the leading party candidates so far bodes for a very dirty race. Hopefully they will return to running on the issues for the next 4 months.

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

    At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

    Political Crumbs

    The Second Time Around

    Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


    How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

    Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


    more POLITICAL CRUMBS

    Humphrey School Sites
    CSPG
    Humphrey New Media Hub

    Issues />

<div id=
    Abortion
    Afghanistan
    Budget and taxes
    Campaign finances
    Crime and punishment
    Economy and jobs
    Education
    Energy
    Environment
    Foreign affairs
    Gender
    Health
    Housing
    Ideology
    Immigration
    Iraq
    Media
    Military
    Partisanship
    Race and ethnicity
    Reapportionment
    Redistricting
    Religion
    Sexuality
    Sports
    Terrorism
    Third parties
    Transportation
    Voting