A recent SurveyUSA poll of likely Minnesota voters unsurprisingly found a single-digit race on the top of November's ballot (Obama up six points over Romney) and a blow-out just below (Amy Klobchuar up 24 on GOP challenger Kurt Bills). Such has often been the result over the 17 previous election cycles in the Gopher State since 1912 in which presidential and U.S. Senate contests align in the same cycle. The presidential contest has been more narrowly decided than the U.S. Senate race in 12 races (1912, 1916, 1928, 1940, 1948, 1952, 1960, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1988, 2000) and the senate race has been more competitive just five times (1924, 1936, 1964, 1996, 2008). These 17 presidential elections have been decided by an average of 10.6 points while the 17 U.S. Senate contests were decided by an average of 17.7 points.
Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).
Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.
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