U.S. Representative Todd Akin's 6.0-point victory over John Brunner in Tuesday's Republican U.S. Senate race in Missouri was the third narrowest GOP primary victory for the office in state history and the lowest percentage for a winning candidate in more than 80 years. Akin won with 36.0 percent of the vote and the last time a victorious Republican primary winner for a Missouri U.S. Senate contest received less than 40 percent was in 1928 when Roscoe Patterson won with 31.4 percent of the vote. The only other GOP winner who received less support on primary day was R.R. Brewster in 1922 with 33.4 percent. The only races decided more closely than Akin's 6-point win were Herbert Douglas's 2.3-point win in 1956 over Albert Shoenbeck and Patterson's 3.4-point win over Nathan Frank in 1928.
Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).
Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.
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