Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Will Paul Ryan Carry Wisconsin for the Romney Ticket?

Bookmark and Share

The last eight vice-presidential nominees from the Midwest have carried their home state dating back to 1944

wisconsinseal10.pngWith Mitt Romney narrowly leading Barack Obama in two polls (Rasmussen, Public Policy Polling) recently released in the State of Wisconsin since Badger State U.S. Representative Paul Ryan was chosen as his running mate, there has been much speculation as to whether Ryan can sustain this momentum and move the state to the GOP column this November.

These polls come on the heels of Obama previously enjoying an advantage over the former Massachusetts governor in all but a few of approximately two-dozen surveys conducted over the past year.

A Republican victory in the state would be huge: Wisconsin is tied with six other states (Hawaii, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington) for the second longest current streak supporting Democratic presidential nominees at six cycles (1988-2008), behind only neighboring Minnesota (and the District of Columbia).

So what are the prospects of a Romney/Ryan ticket carrying Wisconsin this November?

A Smart Politics analysis of presidential election results since 1828 finds that presidential tickets have won only 53 percent of their VP's home states (55 of 103), although those VP nominees selected from the Midwest have won their home state the last eight times since 1944.

There have been 103 presidential tickets that have received Electoral College votes since the founding of the Democratic Party in the 1828 cycle.

Prior to Ryan, eight sitting U.S. House members were selected as running mates to presidential nominees, of which just three saw their ticket carry the VP nominee's home state:

· 1868: Republican Schuyler Colfax (Indiana) on Ulysses S. Grant's ticket.
· 1908: Republican James Sherman (New York) running with William Taft.
· 1932: Democrat John Nance Garner (Texas) on Franklin Roosevelt's ticket.

Another five vice-presidential nominees failed to propel their ticket to a home state victory:

· 1836: Whig Francis Granger (New York) on Willliam Harrison's ticket.
· 1864: Democrat George Pendleton (Ohio) running with George McClellan.
· 1876: Republican William Wheeler (New York) on Rutherford Hayes' ticket.
· 1964: Republican William Miller (New York) running with Barry Goldwater.
· 1984: Democrat Geraldine Ferraro (New York) as Walter Mondale's running mate.

Overall, vice-presidential nominees have helped their ticket win their home state just 53 percent of the time, although that number has increased in recent decades with 69 percent of vice-presidential nominees carrying the home state for their ticket since 1944 (25 of 36).

Midwestern VP picks have been particularly reliable in ensuring their home state lands in their party's column come Election Day.

Since 1944, presidential tickets have won the home states of Midwestern vice-presidential nominees 100 percent of the time, compared to just 61 percent for the 28 VP picks coming from the other three regions of the country.

The eight Midwestern VP nominees during this span prior to Paul Ryan are:

· 1944: Democrat Harry Truman (Missouri) with Franklin Roosevelt.
· 1944: Republican John Bricker (Ohio) with Thomas Dewey.
· 1964: Democrat Hubert Humphrey (Minnesota) with Lyndon Johnson.
· 1976: Republican Bob Dole (Kansas) with Gerald Ford.
· 1976: Democrat Walter Mondale (Minnesota) with Jimmy Carter.
· 1980: Democrat Walter Mondale (Minnesota) with Jimmy Carter.
· 1988: Republican Dan Quayle (Indiana) with George H.W. Bush.
· 1992: Republican Dan Quayle (Indiana) with George H.W. Bush.

The selection of Ryan on the GOP ticket marks the first time a Wisconsinite has been selected as a VP nominee in U.S. history.

Since 1828, New York has bred the largest number of VP nominees with 15, followed by Indiana with 11, Texas with six, Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee with five, and California, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania with four.

During this 184-year span, 18 states have yet to produce a VP nominee on a ticket earning Electoral College votes: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Ryan Seeks to Become 1st GOPer to Simultaneously Win VP and Congressional Seat
Next post: Vote R & R in 2012?

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Gender Equality in the US House: A State-by State Quarter-Century Report Card (1989-2014)

A study of 5,325 congressional elections finds the number of female U.S. Representatives has more than tripled over the last 25 years, but the rate at which women are elected to the chamber still varies greatly between the states.

Political Crumbs

Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting