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Will the Real Battleground States Please Stand Up?

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An analysis of major media outlets' election projection maps finds few can agree on a definitive list of toss-up states in the 2012 presidential race

floridaseal10.jpgA recent Smart Politics report documented how the broadcast media can't always agree on what to call the handful of competitive states in the 2012 presidential election - from "swing states," to "battleground states," to "purple states," to "toss-up states."

Nor are the nation's biggest media outlets in agreement when it comes to deciding on which states should be tagged with these labels.

In fact, they range from as few as three states to as many as 16.

A Smart Politics review of the 2012 electoral projection maps released by 12 major media outlets finds they yield 10 different lists designating the most competitive states to watch this cycle (e.g. battleground / swing / purple / toss-up).

The 12 news outlets under analysis for this report are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, New York Times, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post.

Data from their electoral projection maps was harvested on August 2nd.

The number of competitive states deemed "toss-ups" ranged from a low of just three at the Huffington Post (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) to a high of 16 at National Journal (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin).

USA Today and the Wall Street Journal listed 12 states with POLITICO at 10, MSNBC at nine, ABC, New York Times, Real Clear Politics, and Washington Post at eight, and CNN and PBS at seven.

The number of electoral votes considered up for grabs peaked at 193 with National Journal followed by 148 at USA Today, 147 at the Wall Street Journal, 126 at POLITICO, 110 at MSNBC, 100 at ABC and Real Clear Politics, 95 at the New York Times and Washington Post, 85 at CNN and PBS, and 57 at the Huffington Post.

Only two pairs of media outlets concurred on which states should be considered toss-ups at this stage of the campaign:

· CNN and PBS agreed on seven states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.

· ABC and Real Clear Politics were in agreement on eight states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

Toss-Up States by Media Outlet in 2012 Presidential Electoral Projection Maps

State
ABC
CNN
Huff Post
MSNBC
Nat'l J
NYT
PBS
Politico
RCP
USA Today
Wash Post
WSJ
AZ
X
X
CO
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
FL
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
IA
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
IN
X
MI
X
X
X
X
MN
X
MO
X
X
NC
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
NH
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
NM
X
X
NV
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
OH
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
PA
X
X
VA
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
WI
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
EC Votes
100
85
57
110
193
95
85
126
100
148
95
147
# States
8
7
3
9
16
8
7
10
8
12
8
12
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Only two states appeared on the lists of each of the dozen media outlets under analysis: Florida and Virginia.

In 2008, Florida was the fifth most narrowly decided contest (+2.8 points for Obama) behind Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, and Montana while Virginia was eighth (+6.3 points for Obama).

Another five states were listed by 11 outlets: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Huffington Post opted to rate each under its "Leans Obama" category instead.

After this group came North Carolina which appeared on eight lists, followed by Wisconsin at seven, Michigan at four, Arizona, Missouri, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania at two, and Indiana and Minnesota at one.

Michigan was listed by National Journal, POLITICO, USA Today and the Wall Street Journal.

Arizona and Missouri made the cut at National Journal and the Wall Street Journal while New Mexico and Pennsylvania did so at National Journal and USA Today.

National Journal was the only outlet under analysis to designate Indiana and Minnesota as battlegrounds in 2012.

Most Commonly Listed 2012 Presidential Battleground States Across 12 Media Outlets

State
Total
Florida
12
Virginia
12
Colorado
11
Iowa
11
Nevada
11
New Hampshire
11
Ohio
11
North Carolina
8
Wisconsin
7
Michigan
4
Arizona
2
Missouri
2
New Mexico
2
Pennsylvania
2
Indiana
1
Minnesota
1
Note: Outlets under analysis are ABC, CNN, Huffington Post, MSNBC, National Journal, PBS, POLITICO, Real Clear Politics, USA Today, Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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Previous post: Swing States, Battleground States, or Purple States?
Next post: Missouri GOP US Senate Barnburner Poised for Closest Primary Finish in 56 Years

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Remains of the Data

Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

Political Crumbs

Seeing Red

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


Home Field Advantage?

When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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