Since 1832, at least one state with 10+ electoral votes has flipped from the previous cycle in 43 of 45 presidential elections, and at least one state with 20 or more votes has switched in 35 cycles. Indiana (and its 11 electoral votes) seems assured to flip this November, while Florida (27), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), and Wisconsin (10) remain candidates as well. Historically, New York has been the biggest state to flip 22 times (last doing so in 1988). Ohio is next with four cycles, with Florida, California, Kentucky, and Missouri with three and Pennsylvania with two. Florida was the biggest state to flip in 2008 with Ohio most recently being the most electoral vote rich state to switch in 1948.
Although Republicans have won 23 of 39 Indiana gubernatorial races since the first time a GOP candidate was on the ballot in 1860, Democrats have suffered few blow-out defeats during this span. In fact, the Democratic nominee has eclipsed the 40 percent mark in all 39 contests. The Republicans cannot quite claim the same, falling below 40 percent just once with nominee Linley Pearson during the gubernatorial election of 1992 when Evan Byah won his second term. Democrats have a streak of 47 consecutive contests reaching the 40 percent mark - doing so every cycle since the party first fielded a candidate in the race for governor of 1834.
Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.
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