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Projections: 2012 Presidential Contest

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All eyes on Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania...you know the rest...

presidentialseal10.jpgWith more than 600 state polls released in the nation's Top 10 battleground states this cycle, the nation has watched as data points shifted from advantage Obama to advantage Romney or vice-versa across electorates that tally more than 100 key electoral votes.

While the polls in many of these states show some momentum for the president in the closing days of the campaign, political observers should not be shocked to see Mitt Romney eke out some narrow wins or, conversely to see Obama carry many of these states by up to a half-dozen points.

But for those wanting high drama, the dream scenario would be for neither candidate to handily sweep the battleground states, and instead watch the media sweat it out with enough states too close to call so that no winner is announced Tuesday evening.

Smart Politics 2012 Presidential Projections

State
Projection
Alabama
Romney
Alaska
Romney
Arizona
Romney
Arkansas
Romney
California
Obama
Colorado
Obama
Connecticut
Obama
D.C.
Obama
Delaware
Obama
Florida
Romney
Georgia
Romney
Hawaii
Obama
Idaho
Romney
Illinois
Obama
Indiana
Romney
Iowa
Obama
Kansas
Romney
Kentucky
Romney
Louisiana
Romney
Maine
Obama
Maryland
Obama
Massachusetts
Obama
Michigan
Obama
Minnesota
Obama
Mississippi
Romney
Missouri
Romney
Montana
Romney
Nebraska
Romney
Nevada
Obama
New Hampshire
Obama
New Jersey
Obama
New Mexico
Obama
New York
Obama
North Carolina
Romney
North Dakota
Romney
Ohio
Obama
Oklahoma
Romney
Oregon
Obama
Pennsylvania
Obama
Rhode Island
Obama
South Carolina
Romney
South Dakota
Romney
Tennessee
Romney
Texas
Romney
Utah
Romney
Vermont
Obama
Virginia
Obama
Washington
Obama
West Virginia
Romney
Wisconsin
Obama
Wyoming
Romney
Total
Obama 303, Romney 235

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1 Comment


  • I'm hoping your projections come true as PRESIDENT OBAMA & VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN deserve the opportunity to continue with the programs & policies they've begun on the behalf of ALL of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Country Hoosier ( Ron Booth )

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    No Free Passes: States With 2 Major Party Candidates in Every US House Race

    Indiana has now placed candidates from both major parties on the ballot in a nation-best 189 consecutive U.S. House races, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Idaho, and Montana also north of 100 in a row.

    Political Crumbs

    Gubernatorial Highs and Lows

    Two sitting governors currently hold the record for the highest gubernatorial vote ever received in their respective states by a non-incumbent: Republican Matt Mead of Wyoming (65.7 percent in 2010) and outgoing GOPer Dave Heineman of Nebraska (73.4 percent in 2006). Republican Gary Herbert of Utah had not previously won a gubernatorial contest when he notched a state record 64.1 percent for his first victory in 2010, but was an incumbent at the time after ascending to the position in 2009 after the early departure of Jon Huntsman. Meanwhile, two sitting governors hold the record in their states for the lowest mark ever recorded by a winning gubernatorial candidate (incumbent or otherwise): independent-turned-Democrat Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (36.1 percent in 2010) and Democrat Terry McAuliffe of Virginia (47.8 percent in 2013).


    An Idaho Six Pack

    Two-term Idaho Republican Governor Butch Otter only polled at 39 percent in a recent PPP survey of the state's 2014 race - just four points ahead of Democratic businessman A.J. Balukoff. Otter's low numbers reflect his own struggles as a candidate (witness his weak primary win against State Senator Russ Fulcher) combined with the opportunity for disgruntled Idahoans to cast their votes for one of four third party and independent candidates, who collectively received the support of 12 percent of likely voters: Libertarian John Bujak, the Constitution Party's Steve Pankey, and independents Jill Humble and Pro-Life (aka Marvin Richardson). The six candidate options in a gubernatorial race sets an all-time record in the Gem State across the 46 elections conducted since statehood. The previous high water mark of five candidates was reached in seven previous cycles: 1902, 1904, 1908, 1912, 1914, 1966, and 2010.


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