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Projections: 2012 Presidential Contest

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All eyes on Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania...you know the rest...

presidentialseal10.jpgWith more than 600 state polls released in the nation's Top 10 battleground states this cycle, the nation has watched as data points shifted from advantage Obama to advantage Romney or vice-versa across electorates that tally more than 100 key electoral votes.

While the polls in many of these states show some momentum for the president in the closing days of the campaign, political observers should not be shocked to see Mitt Romney eke out some narrow wins or, conversely to see Obama carry many of these states by up to a half-dozen points.

But for those wanting high drama, the dream scenario would be for neither candidate to handily sweep the battleground states, and instead watch the media sweat it out with enough states too close to call so that no winner is announced Tuesday evening.

Smart Politics 2012 Presidential Projections

State
Projection
Alabama
Romney
Alaska
Romney
Arizona
Romney
Arkansas
Romney
California
Obama
Colorado
Obama
Connecticut
Obama
D.C.
Obama
Delaware
Obama
Florida
Romney
Georgia
Romney
Hawaii
Obama
Idaho
Romney
Illinois
Obama
Indiana
Romney
Iowa
Obama
Kansas
Romney
Kentucky
Romney
Louisiana
Romney
Maine
Obama
Maryland
Obama
Massachusetts
Obama
Michigan
Obama
Minnesota
Obama
Mississippi
Romney
Missouri
Romney
Montana
Romney
Nebraska
Romney
Nevada
Obama
New Hampshire
Obama
New Jersey
Obama
New Mexico
Obama
New York
Obama
North Carolina
Romney
North Dakota
Romney
Ohio
Obama
Oklahoma
Romney
Oregon
Obama
Pennsylvania
Obama
Rhode Island
Obama
South Carolina
Romney
South Dakota
Romney
Tennessee
Romney
Texas
Romney
Utah
Romney
Vermont
Obama
Virginia
Obama
Washington
Obama
West Virginia
Romney
Wisconsin
Obama
Wyoming
Romney
Total
Obama 303, Romney 235

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1 Comment


  • I'm hoping your projections come true as PRESIDENT OBAMA & VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN deserve the opportunity to continue with the programs & policies they've begun on the behalf of ALL of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Country Hoosier ( Ron Booth )

  • Leave a comment


    Remains of the Data

    The Longest-Held Republican US Senate Seats

    Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming claim seven of the Top 10 spots on the list.

    Political Crumbs

    Curse of the '4'?

    Big-name Republicans are not coming out of the woodwork yet to challenge Al Franken in Minnesota's 2014 U.S. Senate race, and there is not much chatter of the GOP picking off one of the five DFL-held U.S. House seats either. Over the last century, Minnesota Republican U.S. House candidates have not fared all that well in cycles ending in '4' - losing seats in five of these cycles (1914, 1924, 1944, 1954, 1974), holding serve in four others (1964, 1984, 1994, 2004), and gaining seats just one time (1934, after redistricting had been delayed one cycle with all nine seats voted at-large in 1932). Perhaps the Republican Party's best chance for a pick up in the Gopher State in 2014 is if 12-term Democrat Collin Peterson retires after nearly a quarter century on Capitol Hill. The 7th CD has the second largest GOP lean in the state.


    Seasoned Senators in Wisconsin

    Of the 15 men and women that have served in the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin since popular vote elections were introduced a century ago, Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin rank among the oldest upon first entering the chamber. Johnson began his tenure at the age of 55 years, 8 months, and 26 days in January 2011, which is the oldest of any elected Wisconsin Senator during this popular vote era. The next oldest, Alexander Wiley, was more than one year younger when he took his seat in 1939 (54 years, 7 months, 8 days). Tammy Baldwin comes in at #6 being 50 years, 10 months, and 23 days when she took office in January of this year. The youngest elected Senator from the Badger State was Robert La Follette, Jr. at 30 years, 7 months, and 24 days (1925) when he took the seat of his legendary deceased father.


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