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Projections: 2012 Presidential Contest

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All eyes on Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania...you know the rest...

presidentialseal10.jpgWith more than 600 state polls released in the nation's Top 10 battleground states this cycle, the nation has watched as data points shifted from advantage Obama to advantage Romney or vice-versa across electorates that tally more than 100 key electoral votes.

While the polls in many of these states show some momentum for the president in the closing days of the campaign, political observers should not be shocked to see Mitt Romney eke out some narrow wins or, conversely to see Obama carry many of these states by up to a half-dozen points.

But for those wanting high drama, the dream scenario would be for neither candidate to handily sweep the battleground states, and instead watch the media sweat it out with enough states too close to call so that no winner is announced Tuesday evening.

Smart Politics 2012 Presidential Projections

State
Projection
Alabama
Romney
Alaska
Romney
Arizona
Romney
Arkansas
Romney
California
Obama
Colorado
Obama
Connecticut
Obama
D.C.
Obama
Delaware
Obama
Florida
Romney
Georgia
Romney
Hawaii
Obama
Idaho
Romney
Illinois
Obama
Indiana
Romney
Iowa
Obama
Kansas
Romney
Kentucky
Romney
Louisiana
Romney
Maine
Obama
Maryland
Obama
Massachusetts
Obama
Michigan
Obama
Minnesota
Obama
Mississippi
Romney
Missouri
Romney
Montana
Romney
Nebraska
Romney
Nevada
Obama
New Hampshire
Obama
New Jersey
Obama
New Mexico
Obama
New York
Obama
North Carolina
Romney
North Dakota
Romney
Ohio
Obama
Oklahoma
Romney
Oregon
Obama
Pennsylvania
Obama
Rhode Island
Obama
South Carolina
Romney
South Dakota
Romney
Tennessee
Romney
Texas
Romney
Utah
Romney
Vermont
Obama
Virginia
Obama
Washington
Obama
West Virginia
Romney
Wisconsin
Obama
Wyoming
Romney
Total
Obama 303, Romney 235

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1 Comment


  • I'm hoping your projections come true as PRESIDENT OBAMA & VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN deserve the opportunity to continue with the programs & policies they've begun on the behalf of ALL of the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Country Hoosier ( Ron Booth )

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    Remains of the Data

    Plurality-Winning Governors Elected At Century-Long High Water Mark

    The rate of gubernatorial candidates elected without the support of a majority of voters is at its highest level since the 1910s.

    Political Crumbs

    Seeing Red

    Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.


    Home Field Advantage?

    When the 114th Congress convenes in a few days, Maine will be represented by one home-grown U.S. Representative: Waterville-born Republican Bruce Poliquin. With the departure of Millinocket-born Mike Michaud, who launched a failed gubernatorial bid, the Pine Tree State was poised to send a House delegation to D.C. without any Maine-born members for the first time since 1821. Three-term U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree (born in Minnesota) coasted to reelection as expected, however Poliquin edged Kentucky-born Emily Cain by 5.3 points to keep the streak alive. Since 1876, a total of 208 of the 222 candidates elected to the nation's lower legislative chamber from the state have been born in Maine, or 94 percent.


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