Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Projections: 2012 U.S. Senate Races

Bookmark and Share

Early expectations of a Republican takeover of the nation's upper legislative chamber may have lost steam, but close races still abound

wisconsinseal10.pngWith the Democratic caucus defending 23 of the nation's 33 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot Tuesday, including several in red and purple states, Republicans were quite optimistic about their chances of winning back the chamber coming out of the 2010 election.

After damaging gaffes by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana, the launching of a popular independent candidacy in Maine, and stronger than expected Democratic campaigns in Wisconsin and North Dakota, the GOP had to inevitably temper expectations.

The end result, however, is that as many as 5 to 10 seats could still change colors - including a handful of true 'toss-up' contests in states like Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin which have shown exceedingly tight polling for several months.

With Democrats defending open seat races in Virginia and Wisconsin, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Jon Tester in Montana, who has his hands full with Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg.

Tester is also facing a Romney victory at the top of the ticket, however Montana has the richest history among the 50 states in split-ticket voting between presidential and U.S. Senate candidates.

Montanans have sent Democrats to the Senate nine times during 17 presidential election cycles when the GOP presidential nominee carried the state, or 53 percent of the time, including seven of 10 elections since 1952.

The Treasure State is the only one in the nation to boast more split-ticket voting than straight-party voting between these two offices over the past 100 years.

Tester is also hoping a strong performance by Libertarian Dan Cox will pull votes away from Rehberg - just as Stan Jones did during the Democrat's 3,512-vote win over three-term GOP incumbent Conrad Burns in 2006.

But before Montana's returns come in there will be plenty of competitive or notable races to watch in Virginia, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

And could there be a few upsets among this batch of senate contests? One should not be surprised...

Smart Politics 2012 U.S. Senate Projections

State
Projection
Status
Arizona
Jeff Flake
Republican hold
California
Dianne Feinstein (inc.)
Democratic hold
Connecticut
Chris Murphy
Democratic caucus hold
Delaware
Tom Carper (inc.)
Democratic hold
Florida
Bill Nelson (inc.)
Democratic hold
Hawaii
Mazie Hirono
Democratic hold
Indiana
Joe Donnelly
Democratic pick-up
Maine
Angus King
Independent pick-up
Maryland
Ben Cardin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren
Democratic pick-up
Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (inc.)
Democratic hold
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (inc.)
Democratic hold
Mississippi
Roger Wicker (inc.)
Republican hold
Missouri
Claire McCaskill (inc.)
Democratic hold
Montana
Jon Tester (inc.)
Democratic hold
Nebraska
Deb Fischer
Republican pick-up
Nevada
Dean Heller (inc.)
Republican hold
New Jersey
Bob Menendez (inc.)
Democratic hold
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich
Democratic hold
New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (inc.)
Democratic hold
North Dakota
Rick Berg
Republican pick-up
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (inc.)
Democratic hold
Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (inc.)
Democratic hold
Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (inc.)
Democratic hold
Tennessee
Bob Corker (inc.)
Republican hold
Texas
Ted Cruz
Republican hold
Utah
Orrin Hatch (inc.)
Republican hold
Vermont
Bernie Sanders (inc.)
Independent hold
Virginia
Tim Kaine
Democratic hold
Washington
Maria Cantwell (inc.)
Democratic hold
West Virginia
Joe Manchin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin
Democratic hold
Wyoming
John Barrasso (inc.)
Republican hold
Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Projections: 2012 Gubernatorial Races
Next post: Projections: 2012 Upper Midwestern U.S. House Races

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting