Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Projections: 2012 U.S. Senate Races

Bookmark and Share

Early expectations of a Republican takeover of the nation's upper legislative chamber may have lost steam, but close races still abound

wisconsinseal10.pngWith the Democratic caucus defending 23 of the nation's 33 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot Tuesday, including several in red and purple states, Republicans were quite optimistic about their chances of winning back the chamber coming out of the 2010 election.

After damaging gaffes by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana, the launching of a popular independent candidacy in Maine, and stronger than expected Democratic campaigns in Wisconsin and North Dakota, the GOP had to inevitably temper expectations.

The end result, however, is that as many as 5 to 10 seats could still change colors - including a handful of true 'toss-up' contests in states like Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin which have shown exceedingly tight polling for several months.

With Democrats defending open seat races in Virginia and Wisconsin, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Jon Tester in Montana, who has his hands full with Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg.

Tester is also facing a Romney victory at the top of the ticket, however Montana has the richest history among the 50 states in split-ticket voting between presidential and U.S. Senate candidates.

Montanans have sent Democrats to the Senate nine times during 17 presidential election cycles when the GOP presidential nominee carried the state, or 53 percent of the time, including seven of 10 elections since 1952.

The Treasure State is the only one in the nation to boast more split-ticket voting than straight-party voting between these two offices over the past 100 years.

Tester is also hoping a strong performance by Libertarian Dan Cox will pull votes away from Rehberg - just as Stan Jones did during the Democrat's 3,512-vote win over three-term GOP incumbent Conrad Burns in 2006.

But before Montana's returns come in there will be plenty of competitive or notable races to watch in Virginia, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

And could there be a few upsets among this batch of senate contests? One should not be surprised...

Smart Politics 2012 U.S. Senate Projections

State
Projection
Status
Arizona
Jeff Flake
Republican hold
California
Dianne Feinstein (inc.)
Democratic hold
Connecticut
Chris Murphy
Democratic caucus hold
Delaware
Tom Carper (inc.)
Democratic hold
Florida
Bill Nelson (inc.)
Democratic hold
Hawaii
Mazie Hirono
Democratic hold
Indiana
Joe Donnelly
Democratic pick-up
Maine
Angus King
Independent pick-up
Maryland
Ben Cardin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren
Democratic pick-up
Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (inc.)
Democratic hold
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (inc.)
Democratic hold
Mississippi
Roger Wicker (inc.)
Republican hold
Missouri
Claire McCaskill (inc.)
Democratic hold
Montana
Jon Tester (inc.)
Democratic hold
Nebraska
Deb Fischer
Republican pick-up
Nevada
Dean Heller (inc.)
Republican hold
New Jersey
Bob Menendez (inc.)
Democratic hold
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich
Democratic hold
New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (inc.)
Democratic hold
North Dakota
Rick Berg
Republican pick-up
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (inc.)
Democratic hold
Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (inc.)
Democratic hold
Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (inc.)
Democratic hold
Tennessee
Bob Corker (inc.)
Republican hold
Texas
Ted Cruz
Republican hold
Utah
Orrin Hatch (inc.)
Republican hold
Vermont
Bernie Sanders (inc.)
Independent hold
Virginia
Tim Kaine
Democratic hold
Washington
Maria Cantwell (inc.)
Democratic hold
West Virginia
Joe Manchin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin
Democratic hold
Wyoming
John Barrasso (inc.)
Republican hold
Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Projections: 2012 Gubernatorial Races
Next post: Projections: 2012 Upper Midwestern U.S. House Races

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Kevin McCarthy Becomes Least Tenured Floor Leader in US House History

At less than four terms, McCarthy has served 423 fewer days in the chamber than any floor leader in U.S. House history and almost 10 years less than the average leader.

Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting