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Projections: 2012 U.S. Senate Races

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Early expectations of a Republican takeover of the nation's upper legislative chamber may have lost steam, but close races still abound

wisconsinseal10.pngWith the Democratic caucus defending 23 of the nation's 33 U.S. Senate seats on the ballot Tuesday, including several in red and purple states, Republicans were quite optimistic about their chances of winning back the chamber coming out of the 2010 election.

After damaging gaffes by Republican candidates in Missouri and Indiana, the launching of a popular independent candidacy in Maine, and stronger than expected Democratic campaigns in Wisconsin and North Dakota, the GOP had to inevitably temper expectations.

The end result, however, is that as many as 5 to 10 seats could still change colors - including a handful of true 'toss-up' contests in states like Montana, Virginia, and Wisconsin which have shown exceedingly tight polling for several months.

With Democrats defending open seat races in Virginia and Wisconsin, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Jon Tester in Montana, who has his hands full with Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg.

Tester is also facing a Romney victory at the top of the ticket, however Montana has the richest history among the 50 states in split-ticket voting between presidential and U.S. Senate candidates.

Montanans have sent Democrats to the Senate nine times during 17 presidential election cycles when the GOP presidential nominee carried the state, or 53 percent of the time, including seven of 10 elections since 1952.

The Treasure State is the only one in the nation to boast more split-ticket voting than straight-party voting between these two offices over the past 100 years.

Tester is also hoping a strong performance by Libertarian Dan Cox will pull votes away from Rehberg - just as Stan Jones did during the Democrat's 3,512-vote win over three-term GOP incumbent Conrad Burns in 2006.

But before Montana's returns come in there will be plenty of competitive or notable races to watch in Virginia, Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

And could there be a few upsets among this batch of senate contests? One should not be surprised...

Smart Politics 2012 U.S. Senate Projections

State
Projection
Status
Arizona
Jeff Flake
Republican hold
California
Dianne Feinstein (inc.)
Democratic hold
Connecticut
Chris Murphy
Democratic caucus hold
Delaware
Tom Carper (inc.)
Democratic hold
Florida
Bill Nelson (inc.)
Democratic hold
Hawaii
Mazie Hirono
Democratic hold
Indiana
Joe Donnelly
Democratic pick-up
Maine
Angus King
Independent pick-up
Maryland
Ben Cardin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren
Democratic pick-up
Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (inc.)
Democratic hold
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (inc.)
Democratic hold
Mississippi
Roger Wicker (inc.)
Republican hold
Missouri
Claire McCaskill (inc.)
Democratic hold
Montana
Jon Tester (inc.)
Democratic hold
Nebraska
Deb Fischer
Republican pick-up
Nevada
Dean Heller (inc.)
Republican hold
New Jersey
Bob Menendez (inc.)
Democratic hold
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich
Democratic hold
New York
Kirsten Gillibrand (inc.)
Democratic hold
North Dakota
Rick Berg
Republican pick-up
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (inc.)
Democratic hold
Pennsylvania
Bob Casey (inc.)
Democratic hold
Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (inc.)
Democratic hold
Tennessee
Bob Corker (inc.)
Republican hold
Texas
Ted Cruz
Republican hold
Utah
Orrin Hatch (inc.)
Republican hold
Vermont
Bernie Sanders (inc.)
Independent hold
Virginia
Tim Kaine
Democratic hold
Washington
Maria Cantwell (inc.)
Democratic hold
West Virginia
Joe Manchin (inc.)
Democratic hold
Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin
Democratic hold
Wyoming
John Barrasso (inc.)
Republican hold
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Final Four Has Presidential Approval

By edging Michigan in the final seconds Sunday, the University of Kentucky guaranteed that one school in the Final Four this year would be located in a state that was not carried by President Barack Obama in 2012. (Connecticut, Florida, and Wisconsin had previously earned Final Four slots over the weekend). Across the 76 Final Fours since 1939, an average of 3.1 schools have been located in states won by the president's ticket during the previous election cycle. All four schools have come from states won by the president 29 times, with the most recent being the 2009 Final Four featuring Connecticut, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Villanova. On 30 occasions three Final Four schools have been located in states won by the president, with two schools 11 times and only one school six times (the most recent being 2012 with Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, and Ohio State). There has never been a Men's NCAA Division I Final Four in which no schools were located in states carried by the president's ticket.


Three for the Road

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in a dead heat with likely 2014 Democratic nominee Mary Burke. Walker is seeking to win his third consecutive election after prevailing in 2012's recall contest. Eight of his predecessors accomplished this feat: Republicans Lucius Fairchild (in 1869), Jeremiah Rusk (1886), Robert La Follette (1904), Emanuel Philipp (1918), John Blaine (1924), Walter Kohler (1954), Warren Knowles (1968), and Tommy Thompson (1994). Three others Badger State governors lost on their third campaign: Democrat George Peck (1894), Progressive Philip La Follette (1938), and Republican Julius Heil (1942). One died in office before having the opportunity to win a third contest (GOPer Walter Goodland in 1947) while another resigned beforehand (Democrat Patrick Lucey in 1977 to become Ambassador to Mexico). Overall Wisconsin gubernatorial incumbents have won 35 of 47 general election contests, or 74.5 percent of the time.


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