Record Book Near Misses in the 2012 Presidential Election

The Romney-Obama contest ranked among the Top 5 most competitive races ever in three states (AK, FL, NC) and the Top 5 least competitive in six (HI, MD, OK, UT, WV, WY)

Although the 2012 presidential election delivered very few surprises in terms of the state-by-state winners, there were perhaps some unexpected results in terms of the margins of victory across the various states.

For example, throughout the election cycle few probably predicted the Romney-Obama contest in Georgia would end up more competitive than the results in several states that had been frequently discussed as battlegrounds, such as Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, and New Mexico.

Or that the race for South Carolina's and Mississippi's electoral votes would ultimately be more closely fought than Oregon's.

And while no statewide records were set, several states did find their 2012 victory margin rank among the closest - or the biggest blowout - in state history.

On the competitive side, the 2012 election delivered a Top 5 most competitive finish in the history of three states since the birth of the modern two-party system in 1828: Florida, Alaska, and North Carolina.

In Florida, Obama's 0.9-point victory was the second closest out of 40 contests over the last 184 years, behind George W. Bush's razor-thin 0.01-point win over Al Gore in 2000.

It was just the seventh time a presidential race had been decided by less than five points in the Sunshine State.

Although Romney's 14.0-point win in Alaska was far from a nail-biter, it was much closer than expected and marked the fourth closest such contest in the state (out of 14 cycles).

The only races that were more competitive in Alaska presidential electoral history were Richard Nixon's 1.9-point win over John Kennedy in 1960, Nixon's 2.6-point win over Hubert Humphrey in 1968, and George H.W. Bush's 9.2-point victory over Bill Clinton in 1992.

Alaska is also one of just three states won by John McCain in 2008 in which Obama decreased his margin of loss in 2012 (along with Louisiana and Mississippi). And, at +7.6 points, it was also Obama's biggest improvement.

In North Carolina, Romney's 2.0-point victory was the fifth most competitive race out of 46 election cycles since 1828.

Obama's 0.3-point win over McCain in 2008 was the narrowest in state history, followed by George H.W. Bush's 0.8-point win over Clinton in 1992, Franklin Pierce's 0.9-point defeat of Winfield Scott in 1852, and Adlai Stevenson's 1.3-point win over Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

The Romney-Obama contest in six other states was among the Top 10 most competitive in state history: Arizona (#7), Georgia (#7), Colorado (#8), South Carolina (#9), Mississippi (#9), and Virginia (#9).

And as for the blowouts?

The Romney-Obama matchup delivered a Top 5 all-time landslide for six states across the country:

· Romney's 40.8-point win in Wyoming is the 2nd largest presidential victory margin in state history, behind Ronald Reagan's 42.3-point win over Walter Mondale in 1984.

· Obama's 42.7-point win in Hawaii ranks #3, behind LBJ's 57.5-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Obama's 45.3-point win over John McCain in 2008.

· Obama's 26.1-point victory in Maryland ranks #3 behind Horatio Seymour's 34.4-point win over Ulysses Grant in 1868 and LBJ's 30.9-point win over Goldwater in 1964.

· Romney's 48.0-point win in Utah ranks #4 behind William Jennings Bryan's 65.4-point win over William McKinley in 1896, Reagan's 52.2-point win over Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Reagan's 49.8-point victory over Mondale in 1984.

· Romney's 26.8-point victory in West Virginia ranks #4 behind Abraham Lincoln's 36.4-point win over George McClellan in 1864, LBJ's 35.9-point win over Goldwater in 1964, and Richard Nixon's 27.2-point victory over George McGovern in 1972.

· Romney's 33.5-point win in Oklahoma ranks #5 in the state behind Nixon's 49.7-point win in 1972, FDR's 46.6-point victory in 1932, Reagan's 37.9-point win in 1984, and FDR's 34.1-point victory over Alf Landon in 1936.

New York (#6), California (#7), Idaho (#8), Delaware (#8), Kentucky (#8), and Tennessee (#10) also recorded landslide victories among the Top 10 largest in their respective state histories.

The District of Columbia, which has voted in 13 cycles since 1964, recorded its second most lopsided victory at 83.6 points for Obama behind his 85.9-point victory there in 2008's.

2012 Presidential Election Cycle Margin of Victory Rank by State, 1828-present

State	Smallest	Largest	Cycles
Alabama	19	28	46
Alaska	4	11	14
Arizona	7	20	26
Arkansas	27	18	44
California	35	7	41
Colorado	8	27	34
Connecticut	32	16	47
DC	12	2	13
Delaware	39	8	46
Florida	2	39	40
Georgia	7	40	46
Hawaii	12	3	14
Idaho	24	8	31
Illinois	36	12	47
Indiana	24	24	47
Iowa	11	32	42
Kansas	21	18	38
Kentucky	40	8	47
Louisiana	22	25	46
Maine	24	24	47
Maryland	45	3	47
Massachusetts	30	18	47
Michigan	21	25	45
Minnesota	13	27	39
Mississippi	9	37	45
Missouri	25	23	47
Montana	14	18	31
Nebraska	20	18	37
Nevada	12	27	38
New Hampshire	15	33	47
New Jersey	34	14	47
New Mexico	12	15	26
New York	42	6	47
North Carolina	5	42	46
North Dakota	19	13	31
Ohio	12	36	47
Oklahoma	23	5	27
Oregon	26	14	39
Pennsylvania	19	29	47
Rhode Island	36	12	47
South Carolina	9	29	37
South Dakota	21	11	31
Tennessee	37	10	46
Texas	12	29	40
Utah	27	4	30
Vermont	27	21	47
Virginia	9	37	45
Washington	19	13	31
West Virginia	35	4	38
Wisconsin	18	25	42
Wyoming	30	2	31

Table compiled by Smart Politics.

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1 Comment

plumber in milwaukee

January 7, 2013 4:12 PM | Permalink | Reply

Yes there were some surprises, like North Carolina, but until the popular vote replaces the electoral college for electing the president of the United States, the flawed system will continue to be the laughingstock of the entire world.
Outcomes like the 2000 presidential election, when the candidate with the most popular votes does not become president, serve as a reminder of the pitfalls of the antiquated system that needs to be replaced by straight popular vote election of the president.