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The Elusive Republican Majority

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Republican gubernatorial nominees in one state have failed to win a majority of the vote in more than 50 years

paullepage10.jpgEight months out from Election Day, Paul LePage of Maine remains at or near the top of most prognosticators' lists of the most vulnerable Republican governors on the ballot in the 2014 cycle.

Elected with a 38.1 percent plurality of the vote in 2010 over independent Eliot Cutler in a five-candidate field, it is nearly assured that whichever candidate emerges as the victor this November will also fall far short of capturing a majority of the vote.

(LePage will again face Cutler this cycle along along with likely Democratic nominee U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud and independent David Slagger, a former non-voting member of the state house).

Due to the strength of independents and third party gubernatorial candidates in Maine over the decades, as well as the electorate's relative preference for Democrats in Blaine House, it has now been more than half a century since the last time a Republican nominee for governor in the state had the backing of a majority of the electorate.

The last such GOPer to eclipse the 50 percent mark (and by a whisker at that) was John Reed - winning his second full term in 1962 with 50.1 percent of the vote. (Reed won a majority with 241 votes to spare).

Since then, Republicans in the Pine Tree State have failed to reach the 50 percent mark in 12 consecutive cycles - although the party has nonetheless claimed the governor's mansion three times during this span (John McKernan in 1986 and 1990 and LePage in 2010).

This 12-cycle stretch is currently the longest streak in the nation for the GOP, with the next longest drought more than two decades shorter.

Washington is next at eight cycles (since 1984), followed by Oregon at seven (1986), Delaware at six (1992), West Virginia (2000) and New Hampshire (2004) at five, and Minnesota at four (1998).

In addition to Maine, Republicans may see these streaks extended again this November in Delaware, Oregon, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Republican nominees in Colorado (2002), Kentucky (2003), Maryland (2002), New York (1998), and Washington (1980) have reached the 50 percent mark in just one of the state's last 10 elections.

GOPers have done so in just two of the last 10 contests in six other states: Alaska (2002, 2010), Hawaii (2002, 2006), New Hampshire (1994, 2002), New Jersey (1985, 2013), Oklahoma (1998, 2010), Oregon (1978, 1982), and West Virginia (1984, 1996).

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Remains of the Data

Which States Own the Best Track Record in Backing Eventual GOP Presidential Nominees?

Nine states (each with primaries) have an unblemished record in voting for the eventual Republican nominee since 1976 - and not all host contests on the back end of the calendar.

Political Crumbs

Evolving?

When Scott Walker "punted" back in February after being asked if he was comfortable with the idea of evolution he added, "That's a question a politician shouldn't be involved in one way or the other." However, it may very well be a question that is asked at one of the upcoming GOP debates this year. In South Carolina during the first GOP debate in 2012, FOX News' Juan Williams asked Tim Pawlenty, "Do you equate the teaching of creationism with the teaching of evolution as the basis for what should be taught for our nation's schools?" Pawlenty replied, "There should be room in the curriculum for study of intelligent design" but that it was up to the local school districts if it should be in a science class or comparative theory class. At the fourth Republican debate held in California, Jon Huntsman addressed the GOP becoming "anti-science" thusly: "Listen, when you make comments that fly in the face of what 98 out of 100 climate scientists have said, when you call into question the science of evolution, all I'm saying is that, in order for the Republican Party to win, we can't run from science. We can't run from mainstream conservative philosophy."


73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


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