Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


McDaniel vs Cochran 2nd Most Competitive US Senate Primary in Mississippi History

Bookmark and Share

The 2014 Mississippi Republican U.S. Senate primary is one of just two in state history decided by less than one point by either party

thadcochran10.jpgThe 2014 Mississippi U.S. Senate Republican primary election was highly anticipated due to the even odds that a six-term U.S. Senator could be defeated by a Tea Party challenger (for a second consecutive cycle after Dick Lugar of Indiana in 2012).

Thad Cochran had faced only one primary opponent during his five previous reelection bids - Richard O'Hara, winning just 4.7 percent in 1996 - running without any GOP challengers in 1984, 1990, 2002, and 2008.

But this cycle Cochran faced two opponents including the well-funded State Senator Chris McDaniel.

Tuesday's primary lived up to the hype - not only spawning a runoff to determine the nominee, but also nearly breaking the state record for the most closely decided U.S. Senate primary race Mississippi had ever witnessed.

Smart Politics examined the nearly 50 Democratic and Republican Mississippi U.S. Senate primaries that have been conducted since 1916 and found that the McDaniel vs. Cochran matchup yielded the second narrowest margin between the top two finishers in state history.

With 100 percent of precincts reporting, McDaniel led Cochran by 0.5 points - 49.5 percent to 49.0 percent, with Thomas Carey at 1.5 percent.

Only once in Mississippi history has a U.S. Senate primary battle been this tight for either party - in a contest held 80 years ago.

The most competitive primary contest ever held in Mississippi for the nation's upper legislative chamber came in 1934 when two-term incumbent Hubert Stephens squared off against three challengers that included former Governor Theodore Bilbo and seven-term U.S. Representative Ross Collins.

Stephens edged Bilbo by just 0.1 points in the primary with 37.3 percent of the vote while Collins came in third with 24.6 percent.

Bilbo came back to win the subsequent runoff with 51.8 percent a few weeks later.

Stephens is one of three Mississippi U.S. Senators to lose a primary or primary runoff election.

In 1918, one-term incumbent James Vardaman was defeated by 9.7 points in the Democratic primary by Pat Harrison in a three-candidate field.

Harrison won 51.7 percent to narrowly avoid a runoff with Vardaman tallying 42.0 percent.

In 1942, Democrat Wall Doxey, who won a special election to the chamber one year prior, came in second to James Eastland in the primary in a five candidate field.

Eastland had 37.6 percent to Doxey's 28.3 percent with 10-term Congressman Ross Collins in third at 27.4 percent.

Eastland prevailed in the primary runoff with 56.8 percent to win the seat for what would be the first of six terms in office.

Each of the last five runoff-bound first place finishers in a Mississippi U.S. Senate primary won the subsequent runoff election: Democrats James Eastland (1942), Maurice Dantin (1978), Ken Harper (1994), Troy Brown (2000), and Erik Fleming (2006).

Only James Vardaman in 1922 (beaten by Hubert Stephens) and Hubert Stephens in 1934 (defeated by Theodore Bilbo) placed first in the primary but lost the runoff.

Overall, the state's 35 contested Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate primaries have been decided by an average of 39.4 points.

The 28 contested Democratic contests were decided by an average of 34.5 points while the seven Republican primaries with at least two candidates have been decided by an average of 58.7 points.

Only eight Mississippi U.S. Senate primaries have been decided by a difference of less than 10 percentage points between the first and second place finishers:

· 1934 (0.1 points): Hubert Stephens (37.3 percent), Theodore Bilbo (37.2 percent)
· 2014 (0.5 points): Chris McDaniel (49.5 percent), Thad Cochran (49.0 percent)
· 1978 (1.2 points): Maurice Dantin (29.0 percent), Cliff Finch (27.8 percent)
· 2002 (4.4 points): Steven Turney (52.2 percent), Bootie Hunt (47.8 percent)
· 1928 (5.2 points): Hubert Stephens (52.6 percent), T. Webber Wilson (47.4 percent)
· 1922 (5.5 points): James Vardaman (47.0 percent), Hubert Stephens (41.5 percent)
· 1942 (9.3 points): James Eastland (37.6 percent), Wall Doxey (28.3 percent)
· 1918 (9.7 points): Pat Harrison (51.7 percent), James Vardaman (42.0 percent)

The Top 20 Most Competitive Mississippi U.S. Senate Primaries

Rank
Year
Party
1st
%
2nd
%
# Cand
MoV
1
1934
Democrat
Hubert Stephens
37.3
Theodore Bilbo
37.2
4
0.1
2
2014
Republican
Chris McDaniel
49.5
Thad Cochran
49.0
3
0.5
3
1978
Democrat
Maurice Dantin
29.0
Cliff Finch
27.8
4
1.2
4
2002
Democrat
Steven Turney
52.2
Bootie Hunt
47.8
2
4.4
5
1928
Democrat
Hubert Stephens
52.6
T. Webber Wilson
47.4
2
5.2
6
1922
Democrat
James Vardaman
47.0
Hubert Stephens
41.5
3
5.5
7
1942
Democrat
James Eastland
37.6
Wall Doxey
28.3
5
9.3
8
1918
Democrat
Pat Harrison
51.7
James Vardaman
42.0
3
9.7
9
1988
Democrat
Wayne Dowdy
53.5
Dick Molpus
42.8
3
10.7
10
2000
Democrat
Troy Brown
36.6
Rickey Cole
20.6
5
16.0
11
1996
Democrat
Bootie Hunt
58.8
Shawn O'Hara
41.3
2
17.5
12
1994
Democrat
Ken Harper
46.7
Hiram Eastland
28.9
5
17.8
13
1940
Democrat
Theodore Bilbo
59.3
Hugh White
40.7
2
18.6
14
1946
Democrat
Theodore Bilbo
51.0
Tom Ellis
30.2
5
20.8
15
2006
Democrat
Erik Fleming
44.1
Bill Bowlin
22.1
4
22.0
16
1954
Democrat
James Eastland
62.0
Carroll Gartin
38.0
2
24.0
17
2008
Democrat
Erik Fleming
65.6
Shawn O'Hara
34.4
2
31.2
18
1936
Democrat
Pat Harrison
65.5
Martin Conner
33.2
3
32.3
19
2012
Democrat
Albert Gore
56.8
Roger Weiner
24.4
3
32.4
20
1978
Republican
Thad Cochran
69.0
Charles Pickering
31.0
2
38.0
Table compiled by Smart Politics.

Republicans did not hold their first primary in Mississippi until 1966.

Since then, the party has fielded candidates in 15 cycles, with more than half of these not drawing a primary challenger: Prentiss Walker (1966), Thad Cochran (1984, 1990, 2002, 2008), and Trent Lott (1988, 1994, 2000, 2006).

Prior to 2014, the low water mark for a first place Republican U.S. Senate primary finisher in the Magnolia State was the 69.0 percent recorded by Cochran during his initial U.S. Senate bid in 1978 when he defeated Charles Pickering in a two-candidate race.

On the Democratic side, there have been 34 cycles since the state's first direct primary in 1916, although the party did not field any candidates in 1990.

Cochran and McDaniel will square off once again in the runoff in less than three weeks on June 24th.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Rounds Rolls in South Dakota GOP US Senate Primary
Next post: Ernst Surges After History-Making Primary Win

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting