Go to HHH home page.
Smart Politics
 


Scott Brown Could Become 1st US Senate Nominee to Lose to Two Women

Bookmark and Share

A primary victory will make Brown just the fourth U.S. Senate candidate in history to face major party female nominees in three different cycles; he could also become the first to lose in two of them

scottbrown10.jpgThe New Hampshire primary is still more than a month away, but Scott Brown seems poised to win the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in a crowded field of 10 candidates that includes former two-term Senator Bob Smith.

This is the third U.S. Senate election for Brown in four years as he tries to become just the third person to ever serve in the chamber from more than one state, joining Democrat James Shields (Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri) and Unionist / Republican Waitman Willey (Virginia, West Virginia) from the 19th Century.

A victory by Brown in the primary would also land him in some other rather unusual historical categories.

A Smart Politics analysis finds that if Scott Brown wins the New Hampshire GOP primary, he would become just the fourth major party politician in U.S. history to face three female major party U.S. Senate nominees, and, if he loses to Jeanne Shaheen, would become the first to lose to two of them.

In total, there have been more than 180 major party female U.S. Senate nominees since the first such candidates - Illinois Republican Ruth McCormick and New Jersey Democrat Thelma Parkinson - were defeated in general and special elections respectively back in 1930.

Twelve female nominees have squared off against other women, plus at least two this cycle: Republican Shelley Moore Capito versus Democrat Natalie Tennant in West Virginia and three-term Republican Susan Collins versus Democrat Shenna Bellows in Maine.

Of the remaining (male) candidates who have faced female U.S. Senate nominees, 13 have done so in two cycles and three others have done so three times.

Brown is among those who have battled against female nominees two times in U.S. Senate contests - defeating Democrat Martha Coakley in Massachusetts' 2010 special election and then losing to Elizabeth Warren in 2012.

Also on the list:

● Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky: beating Lois Combs Weinberg in 2002 and facing Alison Lundergan Grimes in a competitive contest this November

● Democrat Bob Kerrey of Nebraska: defeating Jan Stoney in 1994 and losing to Deb Fischer in 2012

● Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa: beating both Jean Lloyd-Jones in 1992 and Roxanne Conlin in 2010

● Republican Jeff Sessions of Alabama: winning against Susan Parker in 2002 and Vivian Figures in 2008

● Republican John Sununu of New Hampshire: beating Jeanne Shaheen in 2002 but losing the rematch against her six years later in 2008

● Democrat Joe Biden of Delaware: defeating M. Jane Brady in 1990 and Christine O'Donnell in 2008

● Republican Jim Talent of Missouri: victorious against Jean Carnahan in 2002 and losing to Claire McCaskill in 2006

● Republican Mike Enzi of Wyoming: beating Kathy Karpan in 1996 and Joyce Corcoran in 2002

● Republican Pete Domenici of New Mexico: winning against Judy Pratt in 1984 and Gloria Tristani in 2002

● Democrat Daniel Patrick Moynihan of New York: defeating Florence Sullivan in 1982 and Bernadette Castro in 1994

● Democrat Bill Bradley of New Jersey: beating Mary Mochary in 1984 and Chrstine Todd Whitman in 1990

● Democrat Philip Hart of Michigan: defeating Elly Peterson in 1964 and Lenore Romney in 1970

Additionally, Republican Elmo Smith simultaneously faced Oregon Democrat Maureen Neuberger in general and special elections held in November 1960 (losing both).

If Brown wins the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in New Hampshire as expected in September, he will move into a much smaller group of major party nominees who have faced female candidates three times, becoming just the fourth to do so in history.

The first was Rhode Island Democrat Claiborne Pell.

Pell faced female nominees from the Republican Party during his campaigns for a second term in 1966 (Ruth Briggs), a fifth term in 1984 (Barbara Leonard), and a sixth and final term in 1990 (Claudine Schneider).

Senator Pell won these three contests by an average of 34 points.

Next was Missouri Republican Kit Bond who defeated female Democratic nominees for his first, second, and fourth terms in 1986 (Harried Woods), 1992 (Geri Rothman-Serot), and 2004 (Nancy Farmer) respectively.

The average margin of victory for Bond against these three women was just eight points.

The most recent male U.S. Senate candidate to face female nominees in three different cycles was Democrat Daniel Akaka of Hawaii.

Senator Akaka faced Republican women en route to a special election victory in 1990 (Pat Saiki) and successful reelection bids in 1994 (Maria Hustace) and 2006 (Cynthia Thielen).

Akaka won these races by an average of 27 points.

Not only will Brown likely add his name to this list in 2014, but he could quite possibly start a club of his own - becoming the first nominee in history to lose a U.S. Senate election to female nominees in more than one cycle.

Despite expected Republican gains in the chamber nationwide this November, Brown has been on the outside looking in across nearly every head to head poll against Senator Shaheen conducted this year.

Through the 2012 cycle, male nominees for the chamber have defeated major party female nominees 62 percent of the time - winning 98 contests and losing 60. (Female nominees did not face a male major party nominee in 14 other contests).

And then there's this final tidbit: Brown would also be the first nominee to face a female nominee in three consecutive cycles: in 2010, 2012, and 2014.

Note: Thanks to Richard R. Valcourt, Editor-in-Chief of the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence for posing this research question.

Follow Smart Politics on Twitter.

Previous post: Which States Elect the "Most Beautiful" People to Congress?
Next post: Cantor Just 2nd Virginian to Quit Among 100+ to Lose US House Seat

Leave a comment


Remains of the Data

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Political Crumbs

Strike Three for Miller-Meeks

Iowa Republicans had a banner day on November 4th, picking up both a U.S. Senate seat and one U.S. House seat, but Mariannette Miller-Meeks' defeat in her third attempt to oust Democrat Dave Loebsack in the 2nd CD means the GOP will not have a monopoly on the state's congressional delegation in the 114th Congress. The loss by Miller-Meeks (following up her defeats in 2008 and 2010) means major party nominees who lost their first two Iowa U.S. House races are now 0 for 10 the third time around in Iowa history. Miller-Meeks joins Democrat William Leffingwell (1858, 1868, 1870), Democrat Anthony Van Wagenen (1894, 1912 (special), 1912), Democrat James Murtagh (1906, 1914, 1916), Democrat Clair Williams (1944, 1946, 1952), Democrat Steven Carter (1948, 1950, 1956), Republican Don Mahon (1966, 1968, 1970), Republican Tom Riley (1968, 1974, 1976), Democrat Eric Tabor (1986, 1988, 1990), and Democrat Bill Gluba (1982, 1988, 2004) on the Hawkeye State's Three Strikes list.


Larry Pressler Wins the Silver

Larry Pressler may have fallen short in his long-shot, underfunded, and understaffed bid to return to the nation's upper legislative chamber, but he did end up notching the best showing for a non-major party South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate in more than 90 years. Pressler won 17.1 percent of the vote which is the best showing for an independent or third party U.S. Senate candidate in the state since 1920 when non-partisan candidate Tom Ayres won 24.1 percent in a race won by Republican Peter Norbeck. Overall, Pressler's 17.1 percent is good for the second best mark for a non-major party candidate across the 35 U.S. Senate contests in South Dakota history. Independent and third party candidates have appeared on the South Dakota U.S. Senate ballot just 25 times over the last century and only three have reached double digits: Pressler in 2014 and Ayres in 1920 and 1924 (12.1 percent). Pressler's defeat means he won't become the oldest candidate elected to the chamber in South Dakota history nor notch the record for the longest gap in service in the direct election era.


more POLITICAL CRUMBS

Humphrey School Sites
CSPG
Humphrey New Media Hub

Issues />

<div id=
Abortion
Afghanistan
Budget and taxes
Campaign finances
Crime and punishment
Economy and jobs
Education
Energy
Environment
Foreign affairs
Gender
Health
Housing
Ideology
Immigration
Iraq
Media
Military
Partisanship
Race and ethnicity
Reapportionment
Redistricting
Religion
Sexuality
Sports
Terrorism
Third parties
Transportation
Voting