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Presidency


Ted Cruz and a Brief History of Texas Presidential Candidates

With Cruz's 2016 candidacy, at least one major party or notable independent Texas candidate has (at least briefly) run for president in 14 of the last 16 election cycles.

Would Mike Pence Be Jumping the Gun in White House Bid?

Abraham Lincoln was the last president to attempt and never win a majority of the vote in a statewide race prior to winning the White House.

Slam Dunk: Will 36 Record Presidential Winning Streaks Continue in 2016?

Three-dozen states are currently in the midst of their longest Democratic or Republican presidential winning streaks.

Presidential Winning Streaks in Minnesota and Virginia

Meet the only two states that have backed both Republican and Democratic presidential nominees in at least 10 consecutive cycles since statehood (though in different eras).

Presidents' Day Special: It's A Good Time to Be An Ex-President

The nation has had four living ex-presidents for the last six-plus years for just the second time in history; the current gap of eight-plus years in presidential deaths is the ninth longest on record.

Which States Are Likely to Split Their Presidential-US Senate Vote in 2016?

States have split their ballot only 29 percent of the time in presidential and U.S. Senate elections over the last century; 6% in NC, 11% in WI and 16% in IL (key 2016 battlegrounds).

Could Scott Walker Become Wisconsin's Strongest Presidential Candidate in History?

No Wisconsin presidential candidate has won more than two primaries or more than 41 delegates at a major party's national convention.

Lindsey Graham and a Brief History of South Carolina Presidential Candidates

On more than a dozen attempts, South Carolinian presidential candidates have withdrawn before their party's convention, failed to win their party's nomination, or fallen short in the Electoral College vote.

Which 16 States Have Never Been on Michelle Obama's SOTU Guest List?

More than 135 guests have appeared with the First Lady since the president's first SOTU speech in 2010, but none from 16 states.

Mitt Romney's Rocky Historical Pathway to the Presidency

Only a handful of failed presidential nominees ran again and won the presidency - all in their second bid.

Did Jeb Bush Wait Too Long to Run for President?

It has been 150+ years since the last time there was a 14-year gap between a presidential candidate's last legislative or executive office electoral victory and a successful White House campaign.

Ashton Carter Would Become 7th Defense Secretary Without Military Service

Three in 10 defense secretaries never served in the uniformed military including five of the last 13.

Is There a Presidential Drag On Gubernatorial Elections?

Only five of the 20 presidents to serve since 1900 have seen their party win a majority of gubernatorial elections during their administrations, and only one since JFK.

Holder Could Still Reach #3 Attorney General Tenure Mark

If his successor is not confirmed by December 5th, Holder will pass Homer Cummings for third place on the all-time tenure list.

Democratic US Senators Slow Out of the Gate to Respond to Syrian Bombing

Republican U.S. Senators issued press releases on the air strikes within the first 24 hours at more than twice the rate of Democrats and at four times the rate for those who are running for reelection in 2014.

Fringe Candidates Filing for President at 2x Rate of 2012 Cycle

112 Americans are already running for president in 2016 - twice the number as at this stage of the cycle four years ago; Republican filers outnumber Democrats by more than 2:1.

Will Obama Stop Referring to Washington as the "Redskins?"

A monumental trademark decision Wednesday may put pressure on the president to stop using the "disparaging" name as he has in the past.

Will Obama Save Pat Quinn in 2014? Low Drag in Presidents' Home States

Eighty percent of gubernatorial nominees from the sitting president's party have been victorious in his home state over the last century.

Stand By Your President: Record-Breaking Tenures in Obama's Cabinet

Three cabinet secretaries under President Obama have already recorded the longest tenures as heads of their respective departments.

Will 2016 GOP Convention Boost Nominee in Host City's State?

Republican presidential nominees have averaged a 1-point decline in the convention host state's adjusted margin of victory (or loss) vis-à-vis the national vote compared to the previous election cycle since the first televised convention in 1940.

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Political Crumbs

73 Months and Counting

January's preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers show Minnesota's unemployment rate of 3.7 percent was once again lower than Wisconsin's 5.0 percent. That marks the 73rd consecutive month in which Minnesota has boasted a lower jobless rate than its neighbor to the east dating back to January 2009 including each of the last 67 months by at least one point. The Gopher State has now edged Wisconsin in the employment border battle for 204 of the last 216 months dating back to February 1997. Wisconsin only managed a lower unemployment rate than Minnesota for the 12 months of 2008 during this 18-year span.


Two Dakotas, One Voice?

For each of the last 24 presidential elections since 1920, North and South Dakota have voted in unison - casting their ballots for the same nominee. For 21 of these cycles (including each of the last 12 since 1968) Republicans carried the Dakotas with just three cycles going to the Democrats (1932, 1936, and 1964). This streak stands in contrast to the first few decades after statehood when North and South Dakota supported different nominees in four of the first seven cycles. North Dakota narrowly backed Populist James Weaver in 1892 while South Dakota voted for incumbent Republican Benjamin Harrison. In 1896, it was North Dakota backing GOPer William McKinley while South Dakota supported Democrat William Jennings Bryan by less than 200 votes. North Dakota voted Democratic in 1912 and 1916 supporting Woodrow Wilson while South Dakota cast its Electoral College votes for Progressive Teddy Roosevelt and Republican Charles Hughes respectively.


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