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Which US Senate Seats Will Flip in 2014? A Survey of Media Rankings

Media election forecasters can only agree on one slot of the Top 12 U.S. Senate seats most likely to change control after the November elections.

The Final Six: Which State Will Next Elect Its 1st Woman to the US House?

Six states have yet to elect a woman to the U.S. House of Representatives, but one is poised to be crossed off that list in 2014.

Which States Have the Highest Rates of Female Gubernatorial Nominees?

Western states dominate the top of the list, with Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Nevada, Washington, and Wyoming all in the Top 10.

On the Hot Seat: US Senate Plurality-Vote Winners

Nearly 40 percent of plurality vote winners of U.S. Senate contests have lost their seat in the next election; three are on the ballot in 2014 (Begich, Franken, Merkley).

Joe Miller, You Will Be Challenged

Fifty-one Republican candidates have run in the 19 Alaska U.S. Senate primaries conducted since 1960.

Record Book Near Misses in the 2012 Presidential Election

The Romney-Obama contest ranked among the Top 5 most competitive races ever in three states (AK, FL, NC) and the Top 5 least competitive in six (HI, MD, OK, UT, WV, WY).

The Western Front: Gary Johnson's Libertarian Stronghold

The Top 12 states with the largest average Libertarian vote totals in presidential elections are all located in the western region of the country, led by Alaska, Arizona, and Wyoming.

US House Tenure Varies Wildly Across the 50 States Throughout History

U.S. Representatives from western states serve an average of 2.9 years longer than those from northeastern states throughout history.

Ron Paul's Hotbeds of Financial Support: New Hampshire, Nevada, Wyoming, and Alaska

Paul's Top 4 states in large donor per capita individual contributions are identical in 2012 from his 2008 presidential bid.

Which States Have the Longest-Serving U.S. House Delegations?

Alaska, Massachusetts, and Michigan boast the longest average length of service; Democrats average 5+ years more experience than Republicans

Murkowski Wins More Votes Than All Statewide Write-in Candidates in Alaska History Combined

Only 94,926 Alaskans had cast their ballot for statewide write-in candidates over the previous 52 years; Murkowski eclipses 100,000

When Alaska and Delaware Come Full Circle

Republican Party leaders and Tea Party Express rail against Murkowski's write-in bid whilst supporting O'Donnell who similarly launched '06 write-in campaign after GOP primary loss

Run, Murkowski, Run? A Historical Review of Alaskan Statewide Write-in Campaigns

No Alaskan candidate for statewide office has won more than 27 percent in a write-in campaign

No Recipe for Success for Murkowski Write-In Campaign in Alaska

Senator Ernest Gruening's model for potential Murkowski write-in candidacy netted just 17 percent in 1968

Which States Host the Most Competitive Gubernatorial Elections?

New Mexico, Alaska, and Indiana have provided the tightest gubernatorial races in the nation since 1900; over the last three decades: Mississippi, Illinois, and Virginia

Murkowski Primary Struggles Just Another Day in Alaska Politics

Murkowski defeat would mean half of Alaskan U.S. Senators eventually failed to win their party's primary

Will Minnesotans Elect a Plurality-Winning Governor for a 4th Straight Cycle?

Only one other state has elected plurality-winning governors into office four times in a row since World War II (Alaska); Minnesota has not done so in 114 years

Democrats Hold Edge Over GOP for Average Years of Service in U.S. House

Despite 30 percent of its caucus elected since 2006, Democrats have served almost 1 more year per member on average than Republicans

Ted Stevens Indictment Boosts Odds of 1st Democratic Senate Victory in Alaska Since 1974

Today's indictment of Alaska Republican Senator Ted Stevens on seven felony counts of concealing gifts from lobbyists makes one of the Democratic Party's prime U.S. Senate targets that much closer to a pick-up in November. Stevens surprised many by announcing he would run for a 7th term, despite an ongoing...

Alaska Caucus Live Blog

6:03 p.m. Caucuses will end in Alaska at 11:00 p.m. CST. The Democrats will allocate 13 of its 18 convention delegates from the caucuses today in proportion to the support each candidate receives at the caucuses. On the Republican side, at election district caucuses held today and Saturday, delegates to...



Political Crumbs

The Second Time Around

Former Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez became the seventh major party or second place gubernatorial candidate in Colorado to get a second chance at the office when he narrowly won his party's nomination last month. Two of the previous six candidates were successful. Democrat Alva Adams lost his first gubernatorial bid to Benjamin Eaton in 1884, but was victorious two years later against William Meyer. Democrat Charles Johnson placed third in 1894 behind Republican Albert McIntyre and Populist incumbent Governor David Waite but returned as the Fusion (Democrat/Populist) nominee in 1898 and defeated GOPer Henry Wolcott. Gubernatorial candidates who received a second chance but lost both general elections include Democrat Thomas Patterson (1888, 1914), Progressive Edward Costigan (1912, 1914), Republican Donald Brotzman (1954, 1956), and Republican David Strickland (1978, 1986).


How Are the Plurality Winners Doing?

Nearly 40 percent of plurality winners of U.S. Senate elections lose their seat in the next election cycle. Will that happen to any of the three such incumbents on the ballot in 2014? Recent polling suggests Democrats Al Franken of Minnesota, Mark Begich of Alaska, and Jeff Merkley of Oregon all currently have an advantage over their nominated/frontrunning GOP opponents, but each is flirting with plurality support once again. Franken led endorsed GOPer Mike McFadden 48 to 42 percent in a new SurveyUSA poll while the polling group showed Merkley with a 50 to 32 percent advantage over Monica Wehby. Begich led each of the three major GOP candidates in last month's PPP survey: 42 to 37 percent over Daniel Sullivan, 41 to 33 percent over Mead Treadwell, and 43 to 27 percent over Joe Miller.


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